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|nyra -saturday at the spa SARATOGA SPRINGS HORSE RACING IN JULY|
|RACE 5 FLAT RACING GURUS TIP GROUP 1 RACE |
#4 CLAIRIERE= 2PTS WIN A- Curlin filly is not far off the favorite and she exits an unlucky run in the Mother Goose, where a stumble at the start and a rated pace conspired against her; had no real excuses in the Kentucky Oaks two back when never threatening Malathaat, but she ran fine that day while taking another step forward; lack of pace might work against her again, but don’t be surprised to see her show a bit more early speed this time.
|FLAT RACING GURU BARN INFO |
Todd Pletcher has trained some special fillies in his Hall of Fame career. Rags to Riches, the 2007 Belmont Stakes winner, and Ashado, a seven-time Grade 1 winner and Hall of Famer, immediately come to mind.
Malathaat is attempting to work her way into that category. Malathaat, who has won all five of her career starts including the Kentucky Oaks, figures to add a third Grade 1 victory to her résumé when she meets three rivals in Saturday’s $500,000 Coaching Club American Oaks going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga.
Pletcher is a seven-time winner of the Coaching Club, including four of the 10 that have been run at Saratoga since 2010.
“She’s just an elite talent,” Pletcher said of Malathaat. “She has so much natural ability, she loves the game. Everyone that rides her tells me she’ll identify a target and loves the competition. She’s the complete package. She’s tactical if needed. I think she should only improve as she gets older and the longer the races are.”
Malathaat’s two victories in 2021 came by narrow margins. She won the Grade 1 Ashland off a 119-day layoff, running down Pass the Champagne to win by a head. Malathaat came back four weeks later to outfight Search Results to win the Kentucky Oaks by a neck. Search Results came back to win the Grade 1 Acorn in her next start and is targeting the Grade 1 Test here on Aug. 7.
Malathaat was briefly under consideration for the Belmont Stakes. But Malathaat’s weight after the Kentucky Oaks was a concern for Pletcher, who wanted to make sure he had a filly for the second half of the year.
“The main focus was we didn’t want her to have a gut-wrenching race in the Belmont and that could possibly compromise the rest of her season,” said Pletcher, who trains Malathaat for Shadwell Stable.
Malathaat has a series of steady breezes, many with extended gallop-outs, that should have her prepared for the 1 1/8 miles off an 85-day layoff.
John Velazquez, seeking a record sixth CCA Oaks victory, rides Malathaat from the rail.
Since Malathaat figures to be a 1-5 favorite in the Oaks, the race will be run as the fifth on an 11-race card that also includes the Grade 3, $200,000 Caress Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf.
In the CCA Oaks, Malathaat meets two horses she defeated in the Kentucky Oaks.
Clairiere, fourth in the Kentucky Oaks, is a daughter of Curlin out of the dam Cavorting, who was a four-time graded stakes winner at Saratoga including the Test at 3 and the Personal Ensign at 4.
Clairiere won the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds in February before running second in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She had a little traffic in the Kentucky Oaks and just missed third by a nose.
In the Grade 2 Mother Goose, Clairiere stumbled at the start and could only manage a third-place finish in the five horse field.
Trainer Steve Asmussen thought Clairiere’s five-furlong work in 1:00.60 over the Oklahoma training track “was the best work I’ve ever seen her put in.”
Maracuja, seventh in the Kentucky Oaks, was pointing to the Mother Goose before she suffered a minor setback. She did run well when second to Search Results in the Grade 3 Gazelle at this 1 1/8-mile trip.
Trainer Rob Atras didn’t think Maracuja broke particularly sharp in the Oaks, finishing 7 1/2 lengths behind Malathaat.
Atras is hoping Ricardo Santana Jr. can get Maracuja out of the gate better and be closer to what figures to be a tepid pace. Atras isn’t necessarily thinking that Maracuja, also coming off an 85-day layoff, is going to upset Malathaat.
“That filly is a monster,” Atras said. “Not coming in expecting to beat her. Obviously, we want to. It’s a horse race, anything can happen. If we ran second to her, I’d be very happy with that.”
Rockpaperscissors, a daughter of Distorted Humor, is coming off an off-the-turf allowance win at Indiana Grand on June 21, her first start off a nine-month layoff.
Trainer Rodolphe Brisset expects Rockpaperscissors to be on the lead under Luis Saez.
“We’re not scared to do that,” Brisset said. “If this one goes by and that one goes by, we wouldn’t be surprised. If we’re third, I’ll shake hands and be happy.”
|FLAT RACING GURU SARATOGA PLAYS |
RACE 1- ROYAL REALM 7-6
RACE 2- SO ENCHANTING- 3-8-2
RACE 3-#2 WIN WITH PRIDE -2-1-3
RACE 4-#2 LYRICAL PUNCH-2-1-3
RACE 6- 7-4-8
RACE 7-#2 SHADY MAGEE-2-4-7
RACE 8-#8 NAKED ON THE BEACH-8-2-9
RACE 9- #6 CARAMEL SWIRL- 6-2-9
RACE 10- #1 CARAVEL WIN 2PTS 11/5 1-2-4
RACE 11- 7-6-9 BOXED
|DRF AND TIMEFORMS DAVID ARAGONA|
Picks & Plays for Saturday, July 24
by David Aragona
Race 1: 1 – 7 – 5 – 6
Race 2: 4 – 9 – 8 – 3
Race 3: 3 – 2 – 7 – 4
Race 4: 6 – 3 – 5 – 2
Race 5: 1 – 2 – 4
Race 6: 7 – 9 – 8 – 2
Race 7: 9 – 7 – 11 – 4
Race 8: 5 – 3 – 1 – 2
Race 9: 8 – 6 – 9 – 5
Race 10: 2 – 1 – 4 – 5
Race 11: 7 – 1 – 3 – 5
RACE 1: GIOCARE (#1)
RACE 2: PATHETIQUE (#4)
RACE 3: CANTRELL HILL (#3)
RACE 7: MUNQAD (#9)
RACE 8: MIDNIGHT CHOIR (#5)
RACE 9: FLASH MAGIC (#8)
NYRA TIPSTERS ANDY SERLING AND A STABILE
1 – 7 – 6 – 5
2 – 8 – 5 – 9
1 – 2 – 3 – 7
4 – 10 – 5 – 7
1 – 4
10 – 3 – 7 – 8
9 – 6 – 4 – 3
2 – 3 – 1 – 9
8 – 6 – 5 – 3
1 – 2 – 4 – 5
7 – 6 – 1 – 12
DELMAR JULY 24
|DEL MAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RACING SATURDAY JULY 24|
FLAT RACING GURU TIP>>> It has to be Smooth Like Straight Race 8 one of my Fav all time Horses he has done us so many faours in the past I agree with the Californian below today
By Brad Free CALIFORNIAN CORRESPONDENT DRF
BEST BET: Smooth Like Strait (8th race)
Buzz of New York 2. Red Diamond 3. High Con
BUZZ OF NEW YORK makes her U.S. debut as the horse to beat in this turf mile for maiden fillies and mares. Her spring form in
Ireland is solid, trainer Phil D’Amato has an outstanding record with foreign shippers. ‘NEW YORK dwelt at the break (again) her final
start overseas; she finished fast to miss by only a length. The runner-up returned to win her next start, and the fourth-place finisher returned
to run second. Flavien Prat rides for D’Amato, who won with 6 of his last 10 Euro-imports making their U.S. debut. RED DIAMOND is
ready to stretch out following two solid in-the-money finishes in turf sprints. She is bred to run long, and her running style suits two turns.
HIGH CON merits an upset chance, switching to turf third start back from a layoff, with a five-pound apprentice rider.
Awhitesportscoat 2. Outlaw 3. Take Me for a Spin
Ten-time winner AWHITESPORTSCOAT, one-two his last four starts on dirt including a highly rated runner-up finish last out, looks
obvious in this $12.5k claiming sprint. The versatile gelding figures for a cozy trip positioned just off the speed; he is 3-for-4 on Del Mar
dirt. OUTLAW is back where he belongs, sprinting on dirt, after finishing last in a turf route. His February-March efforts at Los Alamitos
and Santa Anita compare favorably to the top choice. TAKE ME FOR A SPIN drops from Cal-bred N1X with speed to be forwardly
placed; SATCHEL DE RITCHES might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He is the fastest entrant based on his runner-up finish for
$16k last out, but that race was four months ago. Uncertain current form, but he did post a bullet work over the DMR track 10 days ago.
Sea Dreamer 2. Velvet Slippers 3. Lil Town Sis
Second-time starter SEA DREAMER looks formidable based on her highly rated runner-up debut. She missed by a length, finished eight+
lengths clear of third, and earned a lofty 89 Beyer that was validated when the third-place finisher returned to win. VELVET SLIPPERS
raced greenly and ran okay in her runner-up debut, a race won by her lower-odds stablemate. ‘SLIPPERS must overcome a 21-point speedfigure deficit behind the top choice, but second-time starters often improve a ton. There might be less discrepancy in ability than the figs
suggest. Improvement likely for ‘SLIPPERS. LIL TOWN SIS broke slowly both starts at Churchill Downs, and raced evenly in both. She
has trained exceptionally well since shipping to California including a fast DMR gate work last week. SOCIALLY SMART, first-time dirt,
worked a bullet five furlongs over this track a week ago.
Hollywoodhellraisr 2. Barbwire 3. A. P. Pharoah
HOLLYWOODHELLRAISR is the one to beat based on his runner-up finish last out in a similar maiden turf route. He was stretching
out from a comeback sprint, rallied to the lead in deep stretch, then got collared by Lincoln Hawk, who returned to finish a better-thanlooked third in a N1X last weekend. If ‘HELLRAISR replicates his Santa Anita form at DMR, he should be right there. BARBWIRE
raced evenly in his fourth-place debut, a race won by a stablemate. Seems it was merely a prep for BARBWIRE, whose pedigree is fine for
long on turf. A. P. PHAROAH is an American Pharoah (turf sire) colt trying turf for the first time since his debut in fall 2019. His runnerup finish three weeks ago was validated when the winner returned to win again. OFFLEE NAUGHTY finished fast for a better-than-looked
sixth in his career debut, final quarter in 22.67 seconds. TRAINER PLEASE stretches out as a likely pacesetter.
Revisionist 2. Bold Voyager 3. Blue Star
This maiden-20 route attracted a weak field, it might be the right spot to take a flyer at high odds. The longshot choice is REVISIONIST,
who stretches out for the first time in his fourth career start. His first two starts were even-paced midpack finishes. Last out, he showed
improved speed, chased the pace, and backed up. Now he goes long in a field without much pace. With three sprints under his belt, a likely
up-front style, tab for an upset dropping from Cal-bred maiden-50. BOLD VOYAGER should vie for favoritism as he drops from MSW to
DMCL for the first time in his seventh start of his career. His last two starts were the best of his career. They also were his first routes, so he
clearly wants to run long. BLUE STAR drops from maiden-50. SALAH is a 17-start maiden with enough ability to hit the board.
Exultation 2. Ottawa Fire 3. Goliad
All 15 starts by EXULTATION were sprints; this mile turf allowance is uncharted territory. But his sprint form is outstanding; five starts
this year produced two wins and three thirds. He is quick enough to make the lead if he wants, and sufficiently versatile to sit off the pace if
needed. Fast gelding in peak form is the one to beat. OTTAWA FIRE makes his U.S. debut for the productive D’Amato-Prat combo. The
gelding won a 15-runner race two back, he finished second in a 23-runner field last out. Both races were in Ireland; he fits perfect in this
N1X allowance. GOLIAD ran well to miss by a neck in his first start in 15 months. he showed as a 2-year-old he can run long and likes
the DMR turf.
Dance to the Music 2. Bicameral 3. Mirasol
DANCE TO THE MUSIC debuts in the deepest field of 2yo maiden fillies this year in SoCal. ‘MUSIC breezed fast at an April sale, was
purchased for $575k and has continued to work well since shipping west. Juvenile debut progeny of Maclean’s Music have won at a 19
percent clip; the only sibling of ‘MUSIC won her career debut. BICAMERAL also trained well for her debut including a sharp gate work
Monday. She is by 20-percent 2yo debut sire Constitution and a sibling to three multiple winners including a debut winner. MIRASOL, by
first-crop sire Arrogate, is a sibling to graded winners New Year’s Day, Mohaymen, Kingly and Enforceable. MIRASOL is the first filly
starter produced by her graded stakes-winning dam. Rail draw not good, but pedigree and works command respect. MITIGATION, who
was in early training with Cliff Sise at San Luis Rey, will make her debut for trainer John Shirreffs. She is by 16-percent 2yo debut sire
Into Mischief, and from a productive female family.
Smooth Like Strait 2. United 3. Say the Word
The two top grass males in California meet for the first time. The nine-furlong distance and pace scenario of this G2 suits the up-front style
of SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT more than UNITED, although the latter won this stakes race last year. ‘STRAIT, who wired a G1 mile last
out, has a tactical edge because he can set or press in a field with little speed. He can stay the distance, three starts at this trip produced a
G2 win and two close finishes in G1s. Long gone if he can hold off UNITED, whose misfire last out was due to a foot problem. A five-time
graded winner, he has trained well since then and has enough speed to keep the top choice in his sights. Though he won this 9f race last
year, he might be more effective at longer distances. SAY THE WORD stretches out to a more preferable distance after a closing second
in a mile race won by the top choice. ‘WORD galloped out super past the wire; he benefits by the longer distance. COUNT AGAIN will
rally from the back; his lone graded win in the U.S. was on the DMR turf course last fall.
Clem Labine 2. I’ll Stand Taller 3. First Prez
Six-time winner CLEM LABINE ships from Northern California in peak form, one-two both recent starts in fast races at Pleasanton. The
six and one-half furlong distance suits his closing style; this field has enough pace to run at. I’LL STAND TALLER has been curiously
spotted of late, fourth in stakes and routes his last three starts. Sprinting on dirt seems his best gig; his maiden win four starts back gives
him a look. He is trained by Doug O’Neill, who also entered front-runner FIRST PREZ. The latter may have company up front, but his
runner-up finish last out behind race-6 selection Exultation was solid.
Going Global 2. Tetragonal 3. Madone
GOING GLOBAL runs faster every start; she won four stakes at Santa Anita including a romp last out. The class of this G2 and
consistently the fastest finisher, ‘GLOBAL looks tough at low odds. Lightly raced TETRAGONAL merits a longshot chance in her third
start following a layoff. Highly regarded since arriving from England last summer, her 2yo campaign ended early due to a bone chip. She
prepped in her comeback, then scored a confidence-building allowance win last out. The five-start filly has room to improve, and might be
better than her form appears. Trainer Richard Baltas won this stakes race with longshots in 2016 and 2017 ($16.40 Mokat, $44.40 Madam
Dancealot). Bombs away? MADONE finished in front of TETRAGONAL all three times they met; MADONE might simply be a better
filly. She scored a sharp G3 comeback win in May, then misfired/bounced wheeling back in three weeks. Freshened since, two-for-two on
DMR turf, contender. EQUILOVE, stablemate of the favorite, is a stretch-out sprinter expected to set the pace. Longshot theft?
Traffic Stopper 2. Sweet Soulmate 3. Angel’s Advocate
The runner-up finish last out by TRAFFIC STOPPER at this $16k claiming N2L class level stamps her the deserving choice. SWEET
SOULMATE crushed maiden-30s two starts back, she was overmatched her first against winners. Her maiden win makes her a contender
vs. this modest group. ANGEL’S ADVOCATE is first-time claim tag, and BIG PASSION is speed
JULY 23 THRU 25
|SARATOGA JULY 23 FRIDAY AT SARATOGA SPRINGS =SPA|
FLAT RACING GURUS PICK RACE BET DAILY POINTS BET
RACE 9 PICK>> #9 NAVRATILOVA- 1PT WIN- 9-7-10-8 SUPER>> BOX 9-7-10 EXACTA
Well-bred filly is out of the mare Centre Court, who won this race back in 2012 before going on to become a Grade 1 winner; ran well sprinting in her first two starts off the layoff, then stretched out in the Tepin and managed to control the pace from the start, before gamely dueling off New Boss in the stretch to prevail; unlikely to make the lead this time with Jouster in the field, but she doesn’t need that trip to be effective; contender at a fair price.
|Picks & Plays for Friday, July 23|
by David Aragona drf timeform Analyst
Race 1: 8 – 4 – 7 – 9
Race 2: 1 – 10 – 9 – 5
Race 3: 9 – 1 – 7 – 2
Race 4: 8 – 2 – 7 – 6
Race 5: 3 – 5 – 8 – 2
Race 6: 11 – 7 – 6 – 2
Race 7: 1 – 8 – 6 – 4
Race 8: 6 – 3 – 8 – 5
Race 9: 8 – 2 – 5 – 3
Race 10: 6 – 1/1A – 3 – 8
RACE 5: GAILHORSEWIND (#3)
It’s hard to know how the public will sort out the four main contenders in this race, as they all look pretty evenly matched from a speed figure standpoint. The one that I’m somewhat against is Dame Time, who got a great trip in her turf debut last time and just couldn’t forge past a longshot winner in deep stretch. She figures to run well again, but I prefer some others. Three of these faced off in a June 3 race at this level. Tuscan Queen ran very well in that debut run despite getting dismissed at 16-1. It’s worth noting that the fractions of that Jun. 3 race are almost surely incorrect (Trakus had 21.99 – 45.82 – 1:09.30), and the race unfolded as if the pace were honest. She’s turned in some pretty swift workouts since that debut, and could be ready to take a step forward. The filly who dueled with her, Six Feet Apart, as also worked well out of that match-up, most recently holding her own in a Jul. 16 workout in company with Grade 1 winner Kimari. However, the horse I want most out of that race is Gailhorsewind. She beat both of those aforementioned fillies, albeit with a good trip, and may be able to win here with a similar effort. However, she didn’t get a chance to show what she could do in her one race since then. It looked like she was the horse to beat last time until it was announced that she was getting a last-minute rider switch. I don’t want to be too hard on the low-percentage fill-in rider, but needless to say switching back to Jose Lezcano is a positive move.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,8
RACE 6: HE’S NO LEMON (#11)
Ajourneytofreedom is perhaps the horse to beat in this competitive optional claimer going 12 furlongs on the inner turf. He’s placed in multipole graded stakes events and has run well over a variety of distances, even finishing third in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup going 2 miles in his most recent appearance. The problem is that he just rarely wins. Despite running well in all of his starts for Mike Maker, he’s been stuck collecting minor awards. He should get an honest pace to close into this time, but I prefer others at slightly better prices. My top pick is He’s No Lemon, who has shined here before. He’s made two prior starts at Saratoga, each time around 3 turns on the inner turf course, and he’s won both of them. His form may look a little spotty in between those Saratoga starts, but he’s had some valid excuses on a few occasions. He didn’t handle a soft turf course at Kentucky Downs last fall, and then he was bottled up in traffic behind a slow pace for much of the Sycamore in his 2020 finale. His return from the layoff last month at Belmont was surely a prep, as 1 1/8 miles is just too short for him. Now he’s stretching out to an appropriate distance, and he’s dropping slightly in class. Dot Matrix is the other horse that I would throw into the mix underneath. He lost all chance when he hopped up at the start last time at Belmont, but he ran on well after that. I think he’s subtly rounding into form, and he obviously has prior races going this distance that would make him competitive.
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 6,7
Trifecta: 11 with 6,7 with 2,6,7,10
RACE 9: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (#8)
One of the challenges in deciphering this Lake George is determining which was the best prep for this race. I want to lean towards horses coming out of the Wonder Again, which was perhaps a slightly tougher race than the Wild Applause or Tepin that others exit. Jouster could go favored here as she cuts back to a more appropriate distance after setting the pace in the Wonder Again. She didn’t have to go that quickly up front, but her lack of stamina took its toll late. This time she should make the lead over horses like Navratilova and Demodog, and it’s usually good to have speed going a mile on the inner course. Yet the runner who I prefer out of the Wonder Again is Technical Analysis. She looked like a filly who could develop into a contender for the Belmont Oaks coming into that race, but she disappointed with a sixth-place finish. However, I think her trip just didn’t work for her. She was too keen heading into the first turn and Jose Ortiz could just never wrangle her off the pace. She’s a filly who needs to be covered up, and she was always unsettled racing wide in the clear. This time she figures to benefit from a quicker early tempo over the shorter distance. When she’s able to conserve her energy, she possesses a pretty electrifying turn of foot. It also appears that she’s continued to train well since that recent defeat. Among the others, I would also use the undefeated Runaway Rumour. She was perhaps second best in the Wild Applause as Minaun encountered some traffic when kept in by that foe in the stretch. However, Runaway Rumour drew a much better post position here, and she’s just continued to improve with each start. I wouldn’t overlook her at a square price.
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,5,10
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5 with 2,3,5,6,10
RACE 10: CLOSERTOTHEHEART (#6)
The George Weaver entry of Thrill and Miss Domina will obviously be tough to beat, as both are spotted to win. The former will be dropping in for a tag for the first time after hitting the board against maiden special weight company here last summer. The problem is that we haven’t seen her since then and this barn doesn’t have the strongest statistics, just 3 for 25 (12%, $1.03 ROI) off breaks of 180+ days in turf sprints. Miss Domina has recency but she’s moving up in class after just missing at Gulfstream last time. That was actually a decent field for the level, and this filly did well to overcome a slow start. They both make a ton of sense, but I see one alternative that could get somewhat overlooked in the wagering. Closertotheheart ran a career-best race when she was switched to turf off the layoff in her 3-year-old debut back in May. She only managed to finish sixth, but she was in the hunt for much of the race against better company. She’s only made one turf start since then going longer, and she just didn’t get the right trip. She was taken back early and then continuously shuffled back on the rail behind a tiring 50-1 shot. She found herself in last by the time they reached the top of the stretch, and her race was basically over at that point. Now she’s dropping to the right level and turning back to a distance that she should be able to handle.
Exacta Box: 1,6
|BARN INFO>>.SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – In 2019, trainer Chad Brown ran 1-2-3 in the Lake George Stakes here, a feat less impressive when you consider Brown had the only three runners in the race.|
Friday, Brown has four entrants in the Grade 3, $150,000 Lake George at Saratoga and even a win would be considered impressive as the one-mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies drew a pretty deep field of 10.
“It’s a good edition of the race,” said Brown, who has won four of the last six runnings of the Lake George.
The Irish-bred Minaun may prove the best of the Brown quartet. A Group 3 winner in Ireland last year, Minaun has made two starts for Brown in 2021. She won a six-furlong allowance race in April at Belmont and then was second as the favorite, beaten a half-length by Runaway Rumour in the Wild Applause Stakes going a mile on June 26. In that race, Minaun saved all the ground, but was blocked behind horses and Runaway Rumour got first run.
“She got in a bunch of trouble,” Brown said. “She got a nice inside trip. I’m not complaining how it unfolded, just unlucky. She was trying to get out, just couldn’t get out in time. With a good trip, she could be right there.’
Manny Franco will have to work out a trip from post 10.
Fluffy Socks won the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante going a mile at Del Mar last November. Brown tried stretching her out in distance this year and Fluffy Socks was beaten a head when second in the Memories of Silver at 1 1/16 miles and fifth in the Grade 3 Wonder Again at 1 1/8 miles.
“She ran good last year at Del Mar going a mile. Hopefully there’s some pace in front of her. Seems like that’s what she might want to do,” Brown said. “Going into this year I thought she might actually stretch out effectively and I might have had that wrong.”
Amy C won a first-level allowance in her first start for Brown, overcoming getting squeezed at the start and rallying from behind off a slow pace.
“She should move forward off of that,” Brown said. “She ran real well.”
Technical Analysis is cutting back to a mile after finishing sixth in the Wonder Again. She won a 1 1/16-mile allowance by 2 3/4 lengths at Belmont in April.
“This filly’s looking for a cutback for sure,” Brown said. “She was a little rank and out of position last time. She has a shot to redeem herself at a mile.”
Jouster, trained by Todd Pletcher, is also looking for redemption while cutting back in distance. She set the pace and finished fourth, beaten three lengths by stablemate Con Lima, in the Wonder Again.
“This is her optimal distance,” Pletcher said. “She’s got a high cruising speed that she can sustain up to a mile. She’s got a short kick. She’s got natural speed.”
Demodog also has speed and she has the rail. Demodog, trained by Rodolphe Brisset, is 2 for 2 and is making her stakes debut in this spot. Brisset doesn’t expect his rider, Chris Landeros, and Luis Saez, the rider of Jouster, to get into a speed duel.
“We’re going to let Luis do what he wants to do. We’re not going to kill each other,” Brisset said. “If he’s got the jump on us, we can sit off of him. If he wants to sit off us, that’s fine with us, too.”
Navratilova and Tobys Heart ran one-two in the Tepin Stakes at Churchill Downs going a mile on June 26. Navratilova, trained by Rusty Arnold is by Medaglia out of Centre Court, who won this race in 2012 for Arnold and owner-breeder G. Watts Humphrey.
Trainer Brian Lynch felt Tobys Heart got shuffled back out of position at the start of the Tepin and “made a move from the 4 1/2 [furlong maker] that almost got it done,” Lynch said. “Rusty’s filly walked the dog, but we were definitely getting to her late.”
A strong pace would suit Runaway Rumour, who successfully stepped out of New York-bred company to win the Wild Applause, improving her record to 3 for 3. Ricardo Santana Jr. rides from post 2 for Jorge Abreu.
Invincible Gal finished seventh as the favorite in the Tepin after getting beat a neck in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly at Belmont. She did win her career debut at 5-1 here last summer for trainer Graham Motion.
Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Technical Analysis should work out better trip in Lake George
By: David Aragona
Saratoga | Race 9 | Post Time 5:39 p.m. (ET) |
One of the challenges in deciphering the Lake George is determining which was the best prep for this race. I want to lean towards horses coming out of the Wonder Again, which was perhaps a slightly tougher race than the Wild Applause or Tepin that others exit.
Jouster (#5) could go favored here as she cuts back to a more appropriate distance after setting the pace in the Wonder Again. She didn’t have to go that quickly up front, but her lack of stamina took its toll late. This time she should make the lead over horses like Navratilova and Demodog, and it’s usually good to have speed going a mile on the inner course.
Yet the runner who I prefer out of the Wonder Again is TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (#9). She looked like a filly who could develop into a contender for the Belmont Oaks coming into that race, but she disappointed with a sixth-place finish. However, I think her trip just didn’t work for her. She was too keen heading into the first turn and Jose Ortiz could just never wrangle her off the pace. She’s a filly who needs to be covered up, and she was always unsettled racing wide in the clear. This time she figures to benefit from a quicker early tempo over the shorter distance. When she’s able to conserve her energy, she possesses a pretty electrifying turn of foot. It also appears that she’s continued to train well since that recent defeat.
Among the others, I would also use the undefeated Runaway Rumour (#2). She was perhaps second best in the Wild Applause as Minaun (#10) encountered some traffic when kept in by that foe in the stretch. However, Runaway Rumour drew a much better post position here, and she’s continued to improve with each start. I wouldn’t overlook her at a square price.
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,5,10
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5 with 2,3,5,6,10
8 – 6 – 7 – 2
1 – 10 – 4 – 9
1 – 9 – 2 – 7
2 – 8 – 7 – 6
3 – 7 – 5 – 8
6 – 7 – 11 – 5
4 – 10 – 8 – 5
7 – 8 – 6 – 5
8 – 7 – 6 – 5
6 – 1/1A – 2 – 9
DEL MAR JULY 23 THRU 25
|DEL MAR JULY 23-2021 -.>> DEL MAR HORSE WAGERING|
|By Brad Free CALIFORNIAN CORRESPONDENT |
BEST BET: We All Agree (1st race)
We All Agree 2. Blame It On Rose 3. Your Ringer
WE ALL AGREE drops to $50k maiden-claiming after a creditable runner-up finish in a maiden special-weight. She chased a fast pace,
held second, and now meets easier. Favorites trained by Luis Mendez have been automatic: his last 10 favorites produced 8 wins, one
second and one third. BLAME IT ON ROSE showed speed in her career debut at Belterra Park; she chased the odds-on favorite and tired
to fourth. Decent debut. She drops in for a tag second out, and should be forwardly placed. YOUR RINGER and I’M A GIRAFFE are
first-time starters trained by Peter Miller. Rail-drawn ‘RINGER appears to have worked well at San Luis Rey; debut 2yos sired by
Speightster have won 15 percent. I’M A GIRAFFE has not worked as fast as her stablemate, but drew a more desirable post near the
Optimistic Valor 2. Vantage Point 3. Man Friday
Kentucky shipper OPTIMISTIC VALOR gets the nod in a competitive turf mile for claiming 3yos. ‘VALOR has been facing decent older
rivals; the race trainer Bill Morey claimed him from produced two next-out winners. Prior to Morey relocating to the Midwest, he and
jockey Kent Desormeaux were a hot combo: 11-for-38 from late 2016 to early 2019. ‘VALOR has tactical speed, he can finish, and he is the
field’s only multiple winner. VANTAGE POINT misfired last out, but that was against tougher allowance company. The winner Hudson
Ridge was a stakes winner; runner-up Flashiest won the Oceanside Stakes last week. Easier spot here for VANTAGE POINT, whose
maiden-claiming win two back is among the fastest recent races by any in the field. MAN FRIDAY finished in front of ‘POINT last out,
and therefore also fits on the drop. CAPPER adds Lasix while returning from a layoff; she ran her final quarter-mile in a sharp :23.81
winning a maiden-claiming turf mile last out, in February.
Mad Catter 2. Union Bliss 3. Vaporized
Front-runner MAD CATTER can be long gone shortening to six furlongs after chasing a sizzling pace and fading against similar maiden20 foes at 6.5f. The runner-up speedster that he chased won next out by open lengths; ‘CATTER can make the lead and be gone under
young apprentice rider Diego Herrera. UNION BLISS may not have liked the inside post in his fourth-place comeback, but he finished
evenly and galloped out fairly well after the wire. He moves from the rail to a post near the outside; his speed figure ties for the highest
last-out fig in the field. VAPORIZED ran well finishing third in his debut, then regressed second start without an apparent alibi. Blinkers
on, improvement possible. SIR FLATTER goes route to sprint and will be rolling late; THE ROAN RANGER is racing at the maiden-20
bottom for the first time.
Bold Endeavor 2. Family Biz 3. Order and Law
Runner-up as favorite his last four starts, BOLD ENDEAVOR continues to run figures fast enough to win this N2X level. The horse that
beat him a half-length last out (Tripoli) returned Saturday to finish second in a Grade 2. ‘ENDEAVOR has always liked the Del Mar main
track (two wins here), and is overdue at this level. He can set the pace, or rally from off. FAMILY BIZ, claimed for $50k from a third at
Belmont Park, makes his California debut for a top stable. His speed figures are fast enough for this level, the uncertainty is two turns.
Most of his 6-for-33 career has been in one-turn races; he has not won a two-turn route (this is his third try). ORDER AND LAW won
three of his last four, all at this N2X class level, on turf and dirt. From the inside post, he mist use his speed. He could be pressured by
Twilight Rider 2. Rookie Year 3. Tacoflavoredkisses
Northern California shipper TWILIGHT RIDER, claimed from a runner-up finish in a productive race by high-percent f.o.c. trainer
Jonathan Wong, can win this competitive claiming mile for 3yos. ‘RIDER missed by a length last out; the first- and fourth-place finishers
returned to win. Wong’s f.o.c. stats are about 30 percent long term. ROOKIE YEAR fits off his runaway maiden sprint win two back. He
finished sixth last out against tougher older rivals on turf, and now returns to dirt and drops into an age-restricted claiming race. Possibly
the speed of the field, come catch him. TACOFLAVOREDKISSES has never raced at a class level this low; he won a maiden race on this
track last summer. Last-out maiden winner TRIBAL NATIONS has an up-front running style; he could keep ROOKIE YEAR honest.
Tilted Towers 2. Commander 3. Distant Vista
Turf sprinter TILTED TOWERS can post a mild upset shortening from six and one-half furlongs to five. He also returns to the course on
which he won twice last summer. Last out he was compromised by pace; he dueled and tired in a race that saw the 1-2-3 finishers rally
from the back. With his pressing style, he will get the first run on the closers. All three turf sprints opening week (rails down) were won by
forwardly placed runners. The rails move to 12 feet this week. COMMANDER is the recent “class” of the field, runner-up in a stakes race
last out and third two back in a Grade 3. Although the shorter distance of this 5f dash might compromise his chances, the closer did win a
claiming turf race here last summer at this trip. DISTANT VISTA, Phil D’Amato-trained stablemate of the top choice, will rally late while
making his first start since last summer. He runs well fresh. Three-time Cal-bred stakes winner LIEUTENANT DAN returns from a 15-
month layoff. LOVE MY JIMMY, the only 3yo, adds speed.
Fi Fi Pharoah 2. Closing Remarks 3. Respectfully
FI FI PHAROAH and CLOSING REMARKS are compromised by inside posts in this sprint stakes for Cal-bred fillies, but they are the
class of the field. The call is ‘PHAROAH, whose improvement, including a stakes win, coincides with her stretching to a route. Trouble is,
this race is seven furlongs around one turn. Winner of a $150k route stakes last out, ‘PHAROAH worked well over the Del Mar main track.
She can sit, wait and blast home for the win. CLOSING REMARKS is the most accomplished in the field, graded stakes placed both recent
starts on turf. Although she has never raced on dirt, she posted a blazing dirt work here last week. RESPECTFULLY has something the
top pair lack. That is, speed. She might be the quickest in the field. Come and catch her? EDDIE’S NEW DREAM gave top choice FI FI
PHAROAH a scare last out. Improving each start, ‘DREAM figures for a perfect trip pressing the pace outside RESPECTFULLY.
Eagle in the Sky 2. Really Big News 3. Donner Lake
Close call between EAGLE IN THE SKY and stretch-out REALLY BIG NEWS in this Cal-bred maiden turf mile. The call is ‘SKY,
whose recent fourth in a turf mile was his first start since last summer. He made a run at the leader into the lane, then lost his punch. He ran
like a horse that needed a start. Solid work pattern since, prep race under his belt, set to fire second start back. REALLY BIG NEWS
finished second in both sprints and is bred for two turns. He finished willingly last out, has a two-turn pedigree, and figures as a contender
despite post 12. DONNER LAKE stretches out from an okay fourth-place sprint debut. He also is bred to stay two turns. Also-eligible
TALLEMARK finished in the money both recent against similar Cal-bred maidens.
|SARATOGA JULY 22 RACE IN PROFILE >.RACE 8 ON THE TURF|
|LOVELY LUCKY posted a narrow maiden win with a game run up the inside last June, then improved significantly when pulling off an upset over this course and distance with a solid 93 Beyer; also ran well in the Glens Falls up here at the end of the meet and appears to have landed in a good spot off the layoff if she is ready to go. |
6 MIA MARTINA won her first start for these connections after being purchased out of a late-running debut win, and she has faced nothing but stakes rivals since – albeit straight 3-year-olds; stretches out for the first time with upside after getting outkicked over soft turf at Delaware.
2 CAT’S PAJAMAS looked good winning the first two turf starts of her career off the layoff last year, then tried a couple of stakes up here to no avail; hasn’t finished hard in either of her two starts so far as a 4yo; tries stretching out.
|Flat Racing Gurus TIP #5 Lovely Lucky 1pt brings 93 and 91 Beyers from this track Last season and can run well from a break- ticks all the Boxes i need to tik for this Race|
|Picks & Plays for Thursday, July 22|
by David Aragona drf -Timeform Analyst
Race 1: 1 – 6 – 3 – 4
Race 2: 5 – 6 – 3 – 7
Race 3: 2 – 1 – 3 – 4
Race 4: 7 – 1 – 2 – 5
Race 5: 4 – 3 – 10 – 2
Race 6: 3 – 10 – 7 – 9
Race 7: 6 – 10 – 8 – 9
Race 8: 5 – 6 – 2 – 7
Race 9: 6 – 3 – 1/1A – 2
Race 10: 11 – 4 – 12 – 1
RACE 2: RUDY ROD (#5)
I expect Wicked Mad and Pregame to vie for favoritism in this $50k maiden claimer. The former goes out for Steve Asmussen, who is the early leading trainer at Saratoga with 4 victories during the first week. He faced talented runners Happymac and Beau Liam in his first couple of starts at the maiden special weight level before dropping in for a tag last time. While he finished fifth that day, he was down inside racing in traffic through upper stretch before altering out late. He’s a player here, but I slightly prefer the Rusty Arnold-trained Pregame. This runner is switching back to dirt after finishing off the board in a couple of turf starts at Churchill Downs. He figures to be tough if able to repeat his last dirt effort from Keeneland in April. He was sitting right on top of a slow pace that day, but nevertheless did well to hang with next-out winner Snow House until the late stages. Rudy Rod also switches back to dirt after trying turf a few times, and I think he’s clearly getting back on his preferred surface here. He wasn’t quite ready for his career debut, but he ran very well in both subsequent dirt starts last winter. He was wide against a rail bias on Feb. 26, and then had to chase a fast pace going a mile in March. I’m not sure why the connections were so committed to transforming him into a turf horse, but now he’s cutting back to an appropriate distance on dirt and returning as a new gelding.
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,7
RACE 4: STUNNING MUNNINGS (#7)
I suppose Dancing Kiki is the horse to beat as she switches back to dirt and drops into this conditioned claimer. The last time she raced for a tag she broke her maiden decisively going this 7-furlong distance at Aqueduct. Since then she’s run some respectable races against winners, and even won at the starter allowance level. Yet the waters have gotten deeper at Belmont and Saratoga, so this drop in class seems appropriate. She’s never run particularly fast speed figures, but her steadiness and class do make her a strong contender. I could say many of the same things about Courageous Girl, who figures to be a better price. She’s just not good enough to compete at the N2X New York-bred level, so dropping in for a tag for the first time in her career makes sense. Over the past 5 years, David Donk is 6 for 26 (23%, $2.15 ROI) first time for a tag with non-maidens. I still think she needs to improve a bit on her recent efforts to win, but she’s somewhat appealing as the second or third choice. My top pick is Stunning Munnings, who makes her first start off the claim for Natalia Lynch. This barn hasn’t had much success with that move, but she is getting this filly from a low-percentage outfit. Stunning Munnings has actually been in decent form recently but hasn’t gotten ideal trips in her last two starts. She got an indecisive ride two back when wrangled back early before making a mid-race move. And last time she had no chance trying to close into a slow pace that held together up front. She handles 7 furlongs and is drawn well on the outside.
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2
RACE 9: LOVE AND LOVE (#6)
Ice Princess is clearly the one to beat as she returns to dirt. Trying grass made a certain amount of sense, since she does have plenty of turf pedigree. However, she didn’t show any improvement on that surface, so now she’s back in the right kind of spot. She ran well over this course and distance last year when just missing in the Fleet Indian. Yet she’s been twice beaten since then at odds-on prices at this same level, so I’m a little reluctant to take her as the obvious favorite once again. Furthermore, while the Danny Gargan barn did get two wins on Sunday, he’s also had some runners disappoint at short prices so it remains to be seen if he’s on the road back to his typical high win rates. There are some intriguing Kentucky shippers in this race, led by Played Hard, who impressively broke her maiden going two turns last month. Yet I’m not convinced that she was beating the toughest field that day. She also had everything her own way on the front end, and here she may have to duel with Subsidiary early, though it’s possible that she’s just heading in the right direction. My top pick is the more familiar face Love and Love. This 5-year-old mare has tried this level a few times in the past without much success. However, she appeared to get back in top form through the early spring at Aqueduct. She put in a strong effort two back on Apr. 18 when getting within two lengths of Altaf, who returned to win the Ladys Secret with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Love and Love was off for two months after that, and disappointed slightly in her return. However, 7 furlongs is on the short side for her. Now she’s stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, a distance over which she broke her maiden at Saratoga a couple of seasons ago. Her best effort is nearly on par with that of Ice Princess, and she won’t be favored for an underrated trainer.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3
Trifecta: 6 with 3 with 1,2,5
RACE 10: NEW YORK SUPREME (#11)
Social Whirl and Stella Mars make the most sense as they exit what might have been a pretty strong race for the level on June 20 at Belmont. Social Whirl might have run the slightly better race, as she chased the pace while racing in the 3-path early before taking over in upper stretch. She ultimately tired late, but still earned a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure – certainly above average for this level. Stella Mars sat in behind for much of the race before picking up second late. They both figure to run well again, assuming that last speed figure is legitimate. The only alternative that really interests me is the returning New York Supreme. This filly tried the turf once about a year ago, and she didn’t get the best trip. Luis Saez tried to be aggressive, and he would have made the lead under most circumstances. However, he and the filly were unfortunate to find themselves in the same race as Robin Sparkles, who displayed blazing early speed and has since gone on to prove herself a stakes-level turf sprinter. New York Supreme got very rank when she was unable to make the front and wound up tiring late. She actually has some turf pedigree, being a half-sister to two turf sprint winners, and I think she deserves another chance in what appears to be an easier spot than she encountered last summer.
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 4,12
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – For the second time, Forza Di Oro is starting over.
Forza Di Oro, last seen winning the Grade 3 Discovery on Nov. 28 at Aqueduct, makes his belated 4-year-old debut in a $110,000 third-level allowance going 1 1/8 miles on Wednesday at Saratoga.
A son of Speightstown, Forza Di Oro went 2 for 2 as a 3-year-old, winning a first-level allowance last October following a 10-month layoff. That respite was precipitated by a hind ankle injury. This time off was due to a front ankle chip fracture that required surgery.
“He’s been a little bit of a project,” trainer Bill Mott said. “I thought at one time he was going to be a horse that could participate at the top end, but they’ve got to prove it.”
Wednesday’s race figures to be a good test for Forza Di Oro with the likes of American Dubai, Empty Tomb, and West Will Power in the field.
American Dubai, an 8-year-old son of E Dubai trained by Robertino Diodoro, won a money-allowance race by seven lengths at Oaklawn in April. In the $150,000 Blame Stakes on May 29 at Churchill, American Dubai set the pace before fading to fourth, 2 1/4 lengths behind 2020 Queen’s Plate winner Mighty Heart, who came back to win the Grade 3 Dominion Day Stakes on July 1 at Woodbine.
American Dubai as well as Empty Tomb, who won the third-level condition on May 23 at Churchill, are both in for the optional claiming price of $100,000.
Highest Honors, who won the Curlin Stakes in 2019 for trainer Chad Brown, is coming off a second-level allowance win at Belmont; Core Beliefs, a multiple graded stakes winner in his younger days; West Will Power, fourth last out in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile; and Trident Hit complete the field.
|3 HIGHEST HONORS was shaping with potential as a 3yo and was asked to take on a lot in a short time, culminating with an even Travers performance that was followed by an extended layoff. Looked like he needed that first start back when chasing wide and then tiring readily in the stretch, but he was much stronger last time while taking over before the top of the stretch and staying on with a solid figure; handles the distance.|
2 FORZA DI ORO has had trouble putting races together but he returned from a long layoff to run two big races as a 3yo last fall, including a strong Discovery win over this distance when last seen; starting back again with more upside than most, but this is no easy spot over a demanding distance.
1 WEST WILL POWER won each of his first three starts around two turns while showing fine tactical speed and appearing to get more professional with each trip to the track; stepped up in class last time and didn’t run poorly at all while keeping after a contested pace in a race that went to a longshot closer
|FLAT RACING GURU PICS ////… NO 7 TO BEAT NOS 6 AND 5 BOXED SINGLE 7 AMERICAN DUBAI AND BOX 7-6-5 EXATCA 6 BETS TRIFECTA 6 BETS|
|#7 AMERICAN DUBBAI – Back-classer ran big off the Diodoro claim two back, earning a career-best 99 Beyer while contesting the pace before driving clear; tried the Blame last time and was under pressure on the lead from the start, before weakening in the late stages; has run well without the lead in the past, but he appears to be at his best when using his speed and can make things hard on any pace rivals he finds in this spot.|
|NYRA -TIPSTERS >> A SERLING>>|
1 – 4 – 6 – 3
TURF 1 – 2 – 9 – 1A – 5 DIRT 5 – 1/1A – 8 – 2 – 7
2 – 3 – 5 – 4
7 – 8 – 5 – 4
2 – 9 – 10 – 6
TURF 11 – 7 – 10 – 9 DIRT 12 – 7 – 10 – 15
TURF 12 – 1 – 9 – 6 DIRT 9 – 1A – 3 – 11
2 – 3 – 1 – 4
TURF 7 – 4 – 10 – 5 DIRT 3 – 8 – 2 – 4
A STABILE –
TURF 5-1-9-6 DIRT 4-9-8-6
TURF 4-7-6-9 DIRT 16-15-7-10
TURF 10-5-4-9 DIRT 1A-11-9-3
TURF 4-3-7-10 DIRT 3-6-2-5
TIMEFORM DRF A-SARAGONA
Race 1: CANCELLED
Race 2: 6 – 4 – 1 – 5
Race 3: 2 – 1 – 3 – 4
Race 4: 3 – 5 – 2 – 1
Race 5: 7 – 3 – 5 – 8
Race 6: 2 – 9 – 10 – 1
Race 7: 2 – 12 – 7 – 9
Race 8: 1 – 12 – 10 – 6
Race 9: 3 – 2 – 1 – 5
Race 10: 9 – 3 – 2 – 6
RACE 4: COINAGE (#3)
Ready A. P. could go favored as she tackles males in this Rick Violette. She’s returning on just 20 days’ rest following her impressive debut victory late in the Belmont meet. She wasn’t facing a particularly good field that day, and her winning 69 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the lowest in this field. However, she did well to overcome a poor start and won geared down. She’s also worked extremely well since that race, indicating that she’s likely capable of better. I won’t be surprised when she runs well here, or even wins, but she’s not a horse that I really want to take as the potential favorite. I prefer some of her male rivals who raced earlier in the Belmont meet. Barese defeated Coinage when they each made their debuts on May 21, but Coinage has raced since then, breaking his maiden last month in impressive fashion. Barese can obviously improve in his second start, but we already know that Coinage has moved forward out of that race. He arguably won just as easily as Ready A. P., and he did so in slightly faster time against a better field. Surprise Boss, who he defeated soundly in that maiden score, returned to run much faster in his next start, as did fourth-place finisher Juggler, who raced here last weekend. This well-bred son of Breeders’ Cup winner Bar of Gold probably still has some room for improvement, and I think he’s going to appreciate this slight stretch-out in distance. He’s my top pick in a very competitive race.
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5 with 1,2,4,5
RACE 6: MORNING MATCHA (#2)
Both horses exiting the Churchill Downs maiden race of this same variety could take money in here. Let’s Be Clear was sent off as the 4-5 favorite in that spot, but she didn’t get away from the gate all that well. She got a good trip after that, but it took her a long time to get going in the lane before just missing in a blanket finish. Brad Cox is 24 for 85 (28%, $1.34 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years, so these types are often overbet. I actually prefer Take the Backroads from that race, since Tom Amoss has much stronger statistics with his maiden second time starters in dirt sprints. Yet I’m looking in a different direction for my top pick. There are also a couple of runners exiting an open maiden race at Monmouth. Next Tuesday could go favored here after finishing well behind impressive winner Mainstay, who returned to finish a good second in the G3 Schuylerville last week. This filly ran a pretty professional race and figures to show speed once again. However, I’m more interested in Morning Matcha from that race. She was pretty green that day, as it appeared that she was trying to lug in on the turn and through much of the stretch drive while her rider was trying to coax her to rally wide; did get into gear late. She did eventually get up for third, but could have been second if she had ever straightened out. Trainer Butch Reid is 9 for 35 (26%, $1.95 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. She’s also one that should appreciate the added ground.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,9,10
RACE 7: FAIR HAIRED BOY (#2)
There are a few runners dropping in class out of N1X allowance company in this intriguing $40k claimer. Absam may attract the most support among them after running reasonably well in a couple of starts at that level at Churchill Downs. He didn’t get the best trip last time when shuffled back a bit heading into the far turn before launching a wide move into contention. However, I would have liked to see him show a bit more determination through the lane, especially considering that he was the favorite. He’s definitely a major player in here, and I prefer him to the runners cutting back from marathon distances. Prefect and Win d’Oro both raced over 1 1/2 miles in their most recent starts. Prefect seemed to improve a bit with the stretch-out, so I’m somewhat skeptical about the turnback for him, even dropping in class. And I’m just not sure that Win d’Oro is that good, as he was never really a factor in either race at the N1X level. Given the lack of speed signed on, Gimme Some Mo deserves a look. He ran poorly in his most recent turf start, but he’s had some time off since then. He has a few back races that put him in contention, and Irad Ortiz should feel the need to make good use of his tactical speed from this outside post position. I’m using him prominently, but I’m most interested in a less obvious entrant. Fair Haired Boy looks way too slow based on speed figures, but I think it’s worth taking his form apart a bit. He ran well to break his maiden at Colonial Downs when he was a 2-year-old, and then was hardly disgraced trying the Laurel Futurity three weeks later. He was steadied slightly on the backstretch of that stakes, and had to alter course in the lane, hitting his best stride too late. That race didn’t come back fast then, but it’s been somewhat productive. Third-place finisher Doc Boy won a turf stakes as a 3-year-old, and fourth-place finisher Field Pass is now a multiple graded stakes winner. Even Grade 1 Carter winner Mischevious Alex was in that field, though he’s not a turf horse. Something obviously happened for Fair Haired Boy to be off for so long after that, but I think his return at Gulfstream last time was merely a prep. He’s not a 5-furlong horse, and he was running on late before galloping out well. I think he should show more speed with that tightener under his best, and he’s placed appropriately for a barn that has been dangerous on this circuit.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 7,9,10,12
RACE 8: DISCRETIONARY MARQ (#1)
Fast Getaway is obviously the horse to beat as he drops back into New York-bred company for the first time since summer 2020. Something obviously went amiss in his first start of the year when he propped on the far turn, but he ran a much more professional race last time. He got a good trip in that May 20 performance and ultimately just wasn’t good enough. Yet now he’s dropping to a more realistic level, and he’s drawn well on the outside. My only problems are that he’s been gone for another two months, and he’s never been the most trustworthy win candidate, so I’m reluctant to take him at a short price. Most of the other major players in this race are coming out of the June 13 heat at this same level at Belmont. Three Outlaws achieved the best result that day, closing from mid-pack to get up for second. He’s handled this 5 1/2 furlong distance in the past and appears to be back in strong form. He’s a contender, but there’s another runner from that race who interests me more. Discretionary Marq didn’t get the savviest ride last time when his rider made the confusing decision to rate him in the first furlong despite the fact that he broke very well. This horse has typically done his best running when he’s close to the early pace, so he was at a disadvantage right from the start. Prior to that, he had run deceptively well two back, when he got involved chasing a wickedly fast pace set by a horse who faded to last. A repeat of that effort makes him very dangerous here, and I’m hoping that Irad Ortiz gets a little more aggressive this time as he takes over the reins.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,10,12
Trifecta: 1,12 with 1,12 with 5,6,9,10
Saratoga July 18
|Saratoga july 18 I have a Zoom meeting at 4pm so i will post Local NYRA Timeform pundits choices- not being funny but they havent got as many winners as myself Thirsday friday or saturday but its not being big headed? I am just warning you these are not my tips and i hope they all win for you|
|Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 18|
by David Aragona DRF
Race 1: 3 – 5 – 7 – 1
Race 2: 6 – 5 – 2 – 8 (Dirt: 6 – 15 – 7 – 3)
Race 3: 10 – 5 – 4 – 9 (Dirt: 1 – 9 – 15 – 16)
Race 4: 6 – 2 – 3 – 4
Race 5: 4 – 5 – 2 – 6
Race 6: 4 – 9 – 3 – 5 (Dirt: 1 – 10 – 8 – 2)
Race 7: 1 – 7 – 9 – 5
Race 8: 7 – 8 – 4 – 3
Race 9: 3 – 1 – 4 – 5 (Dirt: 2 – 4 – 9 – 6)
Race 10: 6 – 10 – 7 – 9
RACE 2: MYSTICAL MAN (#6)
The horses dropping out of maiden special weight company figure to take money in this spot, and there are multiple options to choose from among them. Amano could go favored for Chad Brown has he returns from a layoff and makes his first start for a tag and as a new gelding. I wasn’t thrilled with any of his races at the special weight level last year, and always got the sense that he preferred more ground than the 1 1/16 miles he gets here. He’s one to consider, as is Charleston Strong, who put in a good effort off the layoff last time. That was only going 7 furlongs, but he finished behind a couple of talented runners, one of whom has already returned to win impressively. Yet I’m more interested in a couple of horses switching surfaces as they drop. Tallis has to be considered based purely on pedigree. He’s by good turf influence Uncle Mo out of multiple stakes-winning turf dam Isabella Sings. Given that strong grass pedigree, it’s a little weird that Todd Pletcher tried him on dirt twice and is dropping in for a tag for this turf debut. However, Pletcher is a solid 6 for 21 (29%, $2.84 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdown trying turf for the first time over the past 5 years. My top pick is Mystical Man. This Al Stall trainee tried turf just once before in his debut as a 2-year-old, and he ran deceptively well that day. He was sluggish in the early stages, rating well behind a slow pace. He was still far back at the top of the stretch, but steadily made up ground while altering course through the lane. He finished up like a horse who handles turf, and he appears to have improved since then while racing on dirt. Mucho Macho Man is a 15% turf route sire, so I like him switching back to grass here. He just needs a bit of pace to close into to set up his late run.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,8
|RACE 4: HONOR HOP (#6)|
This starter allowance looks like it could be dominated by Kentucky shippers and there are multiple appealing options among them. Misty Veil is arguably the one to beat after taking a massive step forward in her first start off the claim for Tom Amoss last time. Sent off at 21-1, she was involved right from the bell and never stopped hounding eventual winner Tabor Hall, just losing a bob to that one at the wire. Tabor Hall would be a significant favorite in this spot, so Misty Veil must be respected as she comes to Saratoga and picks up Irad Ortiz. Some other 3-year-olds like High Fashion and Puye Timing are also worth considering. High Fashion finished ahead of Puye Timing when they met last time, but I thought the former got the better trip. Puye Timing prefers to be forwardly placed, and she was off a step slowly, which put her at the back of the pack. She then launched a premature far turn move before flattening out. I could use all of those, but my top pick is the 4-year-old filly Honor Hop. This daughter of Honor Code has made the majority of her starts on the turf, but she ran well in each of her dirt starts this spring. She perhaps found a mile to be on the short side for her at Keeneland when settling for fourth against a decent maiden field. Yet she took a step forward 15 days later, winning a 10-furlong maiden event at Churchill in the slop. That performance should translate well to this demanding 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga, especially considering that the main track figures to be wet on Sunday. I like that she can be forwardly placed and I suspect she has a stamina advantage over her foes.
Exacta: 6 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4
|RACE 5: JUGGLER (#4)|
Among those with experience, Juggler is probably the most interesting option as he makes his second start for Kelly Breen. He took more money than another Breen runner in today’s first when he made his debut at Belmont, but looked like a horse who just needed a start. He was very sluggish from the start and Joel Rosario didn’t show much urgency letting him settle at the back of the pack. He did make some late progress and galloped out strongly. It is worth noting that the third-place finisher who was closing in tandem with him came back to just miss with an improved speed figure. This colt has a nice damside pedigree and I think we’re likely to see him show more this time. He’s my top pick, but there are a few very interesting first time starters in this field. Senbei, Hot Rod Rumble, and Lil Stevie all go out for very dangerous debut barns. Lil Stevie in particular sports a quick workout at Pimlico last week and figures to take money with Irad Ortiz aboard. Senbei is bred to be a pure sprinter, and Hot Rod Rumble has strong dirt sprint pedigree on the dam’s side. I’d even be interested in Cozzy’s Attitude, a half-brother to capable dirt sprinter Pretty Cozzy. The majority of his workouts prior to the last one were in company with Bourbon’s Hope, who won his debut on dirt at Belmont with a 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6
|RACE 9: HONEY PANTS (#3)|
Goin’ Good is obviously the horse to beat in the Coronation Cup after earning a strong 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her allowance victory at Churchill Downs last time. That win came going this distance over a strong field that included Mazelle winner Lady Edith and today’s rival Illegal Smile, who is also a contender. Goin’ Good was a little unlucky two back when beaten as the favorite in the Mamzelle, but she’s otherwise run well in all of her turf starts. She’s obviously a major player, but there is plenty of speed signed on, so she has to avoid getting caught up chasing a fast pace. I prefer the Christophe Clement-trained Honey Pants, one of two runners for that barn in this field. She’s tried two-turn routes and sprints multiple times, and I much prefer her going shorter. She ran well in a stakes at 6 furlongs as a 2-year-old and she proved that she still possesses that kind of talent when cut back in distance last time. Facing a field of older allowance runners, Honey Pants got caught behind an extremely slow pace and unleashed a furious stretch rally to get up. Trakus caught her coming home her final quarter mile in a blazing 21.99 seconds. This time she figures to get much more pace to close into, and I think she’s going to be difficult to hold off if she’s able to reproduce that same finishing speed over this slightly shorter trip.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,10
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,5,10
|RACE 10: SHIRLEY GREENE (#6)|
Before You’s dirt form clearly makes her the horse to beat in this maiden claiming finale, but there’s something a little fishy about this horse. She was apparently a private purchase following her debut at Tampa, and she really wasn’t disgraced in her first start for the new connections in the mud at Aqueduct. All three rivals who beat her that day have returned to win, including Grade 2 Mother Goose runner-up Always Carina. Based on that performance over a wet track, she’s just way too classy for this field. However, it’s perplexing that her connections seemed committed to running her on turf in her next few starts, and now she’s dropping all the way down to the $20k maiden claiming level for her return to dirt. These Saratoga maiden events do typically come up tougher than this, but it’s a little odd that they’re just giving her away. She’ll probably win, but I wanted to search for at least one viable alternative. The best option I could come up with is Shirley Greene. This filly has clearly been a work in progress in her two starts. She was a little green in her debut at Keeneland, but was claimed out of that start by Ten Strike Racing and Bentley Combs. The claim becomes less surprising when you look at her pedigree, as she’s a half-sister to the very fast sprinter Bulldogger, as well as Ten Strike’s graded stakes-placed mare Portal Creek. She doesn’t appear to possess the ability of those siblings, but I do think she’s better than what we’ve seen from her so far. She got a very tentative ride last time at Churchill and feels like one that could really benefit from the addition of blinkers. It also doesn’t hurt getting Joel Rosario in the irons.
Exacta Box: 6,10
|tipsters A SERLING NYRA|
7 – 5 – 3 – 4
3 – 7 – 15 – 5
9 – 1 – 15 – 16
2 – 6 – 4 – 5
2 – 1 – 6 – 4
8 – 4 – 10 – 12
1 – 9 – 7 – 3
7 – 8 – 6 – 3
2 – 9 – 4 – 6
10 – 9 – 7 – 2
|Tipsters A Stabile NYRA|
TURF 8-6-2-1 DIRT 6-3-7-5
TURF 5-9-12-2 DIRT 1-16-9-15
TURF 9-4-3-7 DIRT 4-8-2-1
TURF 5-1-4-3 DIRT 2-4-9-5
DEL MAR JULY 18
|DEL MAR SUNDAY- Unfortunatly i have a Zoom-meeting at 4pm will never be able to do both-in time??so i will post a local pundits picks|
By Brad Free drf pundit southern california
BEST BET: Neptune’s Storm (7th race)
State of the Union 2. Eddiespaghetti 3. Barsabas
STATE OF THE UNION can win an apparently wide-open maiden-claiming sprint for 2yos. His works at San Luis Rey Downs look
good on paper; trainer Cliff Sise won with 4 of his last 8 maiden-claiming firsters over the past three years. EDDIESPAGHETTI also
debuts at the bottom. The SLR-based Doug O’Neill trainee appears to have worked well and debuts with a top rider. BARSABAS was
gelded after his debut, a noncompetitive try vs. special-weight maidens. He looked okay working from the gate in a three-way team drill
July 5 (viewed at XBTV.com). Improvement likely second out. SIP SIP HOORAY had trouble in his debut. A filly facing boys, she drops
in class second time out for trainer Walther Solis, whose second-start 2yo maidens this year are 4-for-8.
Self Taught 2. Hold Me Black 3. Dark Hedges
SELF TAUGHT returns to the $20k claim level of his decisive win two starts back. He was claimed from the win, misfired next out, and
now returns fresh from a brief layoff. He has run well over the Del Mar surface, and should fire a top shot first start back. Off the pace and
into the winner’s circle. HOLD ME BLACK is an eight-win veteran shipping from Churchill Downs; his starter-allowance win two back
over former California-based allowance sprinter P R Radio Star would be fast enough for this level. Midwest-based trainer Matt Shirer (22
percent career win rate) is campaigning at Del Mar for the first time. Early indications he arrived with “live” stock. DARK HEDGES drew
the rail and therefore must use his speed. His front-running win three back makes him a legit threat to wire the field, although six and onehalf furlongs might be a reach. CAJUN TREASURE goes route to sprint, turf to dirt. He won a fast route at DMR last summer.
Gypsy Blu 2. Nightlife 3. On Deck
Veteran mare GYPSY BLU merits horse-to-beat status in this $32k claiming turf sprint. A six-time winner, she won a fast Cal-bred sprint
last out, she has run well in 5-furlong turf sprints at DMR, and she has speed to keep the leaders in her sights. NIGHTLIFE, another
Shirer trainee, returned to form last out with a sharp $50k claiming win at Churchill Downs. She fits with these. ON DECK has run dirt
figures that put her in the hunt, but her only turf start was bland and her pedigree leans toward dirt. INVINCIBELLA will roll late, but this
5f distance is probably shorter than she prefers.
Sally Stanford 2. Smart Monique 3. Miss Shady
SALLY STANFORD is likely to be heavily favored dropping to Cal-bred maiden-50 after a pair of thirds vs. MSW Cal-breds. She has
early speed, and the top figs. The knock is price. Her odds could be short. SMART MONIQUE switches to Umberto Rispoli, drops into a
state-bred race, and adds blinkers after a troubled third-place debut. MISS SHADY is gradually racing into condition, third last out as the
favorite. MY SWEET MARY is another Solis-trained second-start maiden 2yo. They have won often this season.
Go Big Blue Nation 2. Lady Noguez 3. Star of Africa
GO BIG BLUE NATION and LADY NOGUEZ, four-five finishers last out in a stake race, drop to N1X and stretch to a mile and threeeighths as the proper choices. ‘NATION outkicked her rival last time and showed two back she can say a marathon when a respectable
fourth in a G3. Tepid choice. LADY NOGUEZ finished two lengths behind the top choice after a spot of traffic on the far turn. She has
improved this season as the distances have increased. STAR OF AFRICA is likely to set the pace. Long gone at a price? Maybe, although
the past four summers, DMR pacesetters are just 3-for-20 at a mile and three-eighths on turf.
Date: July 18th, 2021 Track: Del Mar
Miss Alegria 2. Cowboys Daughter 3. Dozo
MISS ALEGRIA returns from an extended layoff with a history of running well fresh; both wins were first start following layoffs. Her
best speed figures are among the highest in the field, and a perfect fit for this $20k claiming N3L level. COWBOYS DAUGHTER goes
route to sprint and drops in class. Her bullet work early this month may have been designed to put speed in her. DOZO set a blazing pace
and tired in a creditable comeback. She drops for her second start back and might be the one to catch.
Neptune’s Storm 2. Homer Screen 3. Bob and Jackie
Runner-up in a G3 last out making his first start in nine months, NEPTUNE’S STORM has a current-class/form advantage in this
restricted stake. He chased a fast pace in that turf mile, made the lead late, then got collared. Fine comeback. He drops in class, and is
established over the DMR turf. Runner-up in the G1 Hollywood Derby and G3 La Jolla, he also finished third in a pair of G2’s. The “now”
horse should be tough with a pressing trip. However, an intriguing import from Brazil shows up for his U.S. debut with five wins from six
starts in South America. HOMER SCREEN arrived in February, has looked good in morning works (viewed at XBTV.com), and his
debut romp last summer shows he runs well. The comebacker BOB AND JACKIE won this race last year returning from a layoff. But his
work pattern a year ago was deeper and stronger than his work pattern into this year’s comeback. His early speed and course record
command respect. Four starts on the DMR turf produced three wins. NEXT SHARES will be rolling late.
Ko Olina 2. Bonita Leona 3. Warren’s Queen Bee
KO OLINA enters this maiden race for Cal-bred 2yo fillies as a legit favorite based on her first-over-the-wire “victory” last out against
open company. She set the pace, held by a nose, but was disqualified after she drifted out through the stretch and interfered with the runnerup. The improving filly drops into the state-bred ranks and could be tough to catch if she runs straight. But Northern California-based firsttime starter BONITA LEONA debuts with a series of sharp works. ‘LEONA is by 11-percent debut 2yo stallion Smiling Tiger (that stat is
about average), and is a sibling to four multiple winners including stakes winner El Tigre Terrible. The presence of Flavien Prat suggests
positive intent. Stablemates WARREN’S QUEEN BEE and WARREN’S SHOWGIRL are Clubhouse Ride firsters that have shown
promise in works at Santa Anita. ‘QUEEN BEE debuts with trainer Craig Lewis’s go-to rider Juan Hernandez; ‘SHOWGIRL is a full sister
to multiple stakes winner Warren’s Showtime and probably wants a longer distance than 5f.
Fantasy Heat 2. Anna Fantastic 3. Angelcents
FANTASY HEAT makes her first start of 2021 while returning to the N1X/optional $40k claiming class level of her most recent win. A
two-time turf sprint winner at Del Mar, she runs well fresh and should get a cozy trip saving ground just off the speed. ANNA
FANTASTIC followed her dominating maiden win with a troubled runner-up finish in a N1X that turned out to be a productive race. The
winner and third-place finisher returned to win. Freshened since April, recent bullet work, versatile style, and reunited with Rispoli.
Obvious contender first start back. ANGELCENTS is a 5-for-7 shipper from the Midwest. She is all speed, probably the one to catch.
Well-bred THRILLING popped at 15-1 in her debut and might be this good. She is sired by Uncle Mo, produced by G1 winner Together.
Tizamagician 2. Red King 3. Contagion
TIZAMAGICIAN has a lot going for him in this G3 dirt marathon. He can stay a mile and one-half, having won a similar graded race by
nine lengths two back. He runs well at DMR, a win and two seconds from five starts. He has speed to set or press the pace in a field
without much speed. His runner-up finish as the favorite in a similar race last out at Belmont Park was better than the double-digit margin
of defeat. He reared at the start, was off slowly, and lost to sharp veteran Lone Rock, who was winning his sixth race in his last seven
starts. It all adds up to a likely win at low odds for TIZAMAGICAN. Turf specialist RED KING is interesting. He has never raced on dirt,
but he is a G2 winner on turf who will run all day. He will rally late, assuming he runs here instead of waiting for the Del Mar Handicap
next month. He won that race a year ago. CONTAGION is a sharp claiming horse taking a shot in peak form. He dominated easier last
out. Though outclassed, he commands respect based on current form. HEYWOODS BEACH fits off his highly rated N2X win two back.
Javanica 2. Carpe Fortuna 3. Lady Emily
Multiple stakes-placed JAVANICA, runner-up by a head to subsequent Preakness winner Rombauer early this year, returns from a short
layoff as the class of this entry-level allowance for 3yo fillies. She finished second in a G3 her only previous start on DMR turf, her
comeback works are solid. Lightly raced CARPE FORTUNA, maiden winner on this course last fall and only a length and a quarter
behind the top choice in a stakes race in December, returns from a four-month layoff with a history of running well fresh and more tactical
speed than the top choice. LADY EMILY, smashing debut winner long on turf in her career debut two back at Gulfstream Park, drops
from a sixth-place finish in a stakes race, adds blinkers and is Lasix-on. Sired by First Dude, her dam is a maiden sibling to two-time
Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow. BURGOO ALLEY wired maidens last out and will be involved in the pace scenario.
|SARATOGA SATURDAY 17 JULY -NYRA- MONMOUTH TWO RACE SPECIAL DOUBLE|
|SIMPLE PICKS SEE BELOW COLUMN FOR THE BARN INFO LADIES AND GENTS|
|RACE 1>> #8 SHERRIF BLANCO #6 IM BLAMING YOU-win-#3 WAR SMOKE=#2 NUERO, if they did go crazy up front Nuero could be finishing best and has been seen doing speed work at Belmont cutting back from 7f|
|RACE 2>> #5 REPO ROCKS- #6 CHRISPTOPHER box exacta 1/2pt|
|RACE 3>> #6 SEASCAPE 25/1 1PT EWAY – 6-3-4-11|
|RACE 4>> #8 AUSTRIAN WIN-8-7-9- BOX -13|
|RACE 5>> #4 DETROIT CITY WIN7/1 1PT WIN 4-9-7– Save exacta 9-4|
|RACE 6>> #3 RATTLE N ROLL -3-4-12-2|
|RACE 7>> #2 BATTLE STATIONS 8/1 1PT EWAY- 2-4-6-4|
|RACE 8>> BEAU LIAM 9/2 1PT was always confidently handled while cruising in over maidens in his Churchill debut for Asmussen; earned a figure for that effort draws the rail vs. a strong allowance field here, TOTALLY UNEXPOSED is the Key bye bye the rest i say-??. 1-12-10|
|RACE 9>> #7 OTTOMAN EMPIRE 10/1 1PT WIN- 7-9-8 BOX Exotics 6 bets|
|RACE 10>> #6 SUMMER ROMANCE 4/1 2PTS WIN=6-7-8-5|
|RACE 6 ZULU ALPHA my Fav Horse 11/10 -who remembers the 16/1 at Gulfstream? 2018/19 RACE 8 #4 ENJOYITWHILEYOUCAN 12/1|
|RACE tvg-RED HOT CHARLIE WIN|
|RACE-UN STKES-ARKLOW WIN|
|SARATOGA RACE INFO- TRAINERS INTERVIEWS THOUGHTS BARNS INSIGHT PAGES SIMPLE TIPS|
|RACE-8- Trainer Todd Pletcher was planning to run Mahaamel in the Grade 3 Dwyer Stakes on July 5 at Belmont Park. An illness forced him to miss that race.|
Plan B is a first-level allowance Saturday at Saratoga that appears to have come up deeper than the Dwyer. The seven-furlong race, which goes as race 8, has a purse of $103,000.
“The race came up really tough, like a Grade 2,” Pletcher said.
Mahaamel finished second to First Captain when both debuted on April 24 at Belmont. Mahaamel, with blinkers added, came back to win his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths, earning a 99 Beyer Speed Figure.
When Mahaamel didn’t run in the Dwyer, First Captain did and won, making him 3 for 3.
Pletcher said that Mahaamel’s second start “was an improvement partly because of the blinkers.”
“That got him a little more focused,” Pletcher said. “He ran well the first time, he just ran into a very nice horse. . . . He’s trained like a stakes horse.”
Beau Liam ran like a stakes horse on May 29 at Churchill in his debut, winning by 7 1/2 lengths, running six furlongs in 1:08.62, and earning a 94 Beyer Speed Figure.
“A lot of horses work good, but who runs 1:08 and change?” trainer Steve Asmussen said. “He was rolling along very comfortable.”
Asmussen isn’t thrilled that Beau Liam drew the rail for Saturday’s race.
“I’ll be interested in seeing how the racetrack plays the first two days, but he’s trained beautifully since,” Asmussen said. “He’s obviously had plenty of time to recover from that fast of a race first time, and he looks beautiful right now.”
Ten for Ten finished second in both the Grade 3 Nashua and Grade 2 Remsen last fall. Trainer Shug McGaughey said the horse wasn’t doing well during the winter so he turned him out. McGaughey said this seven-furlong race looked like a good place to start him back.
“I just want to get him started,” McGaughey said. “I didn’t have any idea it was going to turn out like this.”
Chad Brown runs both Crowded Trade and Witsel. Crowded Trade is dropping into an allowance and cutting back to one turn after running fifth in the Preakness.
“We were looking for a cutback and some class relief,” Brown said. “We accomplished the cutback; I don’t think we accomplished the class relief.”
Witsel is making his first start for Brown after a private purchase following a dynamic debut victory at Tampa Bay Downs in December.
“He needed a little bit of time, we knew, but he’s been training very good,” Brown said.
|RACE 9 INFO>>Wit got a little more of a schooling than trainer Todd Pletcher might have intended when he overcame a slow start to register an impressive six-length victory as a 2-5 favorite when debuting last month at Belmont Park. That added experience could be a blessing in disguise when the promising 2-year-old breaks from the rail as the likely favorite against 11 rivals in the $150,000 Sanford for 2-year-olds going six furlongs on Saturday at Saratoga.|
Wit broke last in a field of eight and lagged well off the early leaders in the run down the backstretch. He advanced steadily when put to urging on the turn of the 5 1/2-furlong race, came wide entering the stretch, and wore down the tiring leader to win going away.
“I was a little concerned because he’d been a touch slow the first step going into the race, and it turned out he was a little slower than I anticipated,” said Pletcher. “The good news is he got some dirt in his face and an education. Drawing the rail for this race, I anticipate he’ll get some more dirt in his face, so that experience should help us. He’s trained like a good horse all along. How things turn out Saturday really depends on how he breaks and getting a trip.”
Jose Ortiz rode Wit in his first start, but his brother Irad will have the mount in the Grade 3 Sanford.
Wit is one of nine unbeaten horses in the lineup, including Candy Landing, an equally impressive winner at first asking on June 11 at Churchill Downs. Unlike Wit, Candy Landing was overlooked in the betting, going postward at odds of 17-1, and was right with the lead from the outset. He contested lightning-fast early splits in the 5 1/2-furlong race before drawing away readily to win by 4 1/2 lengths for trainer Brendan Walsh. And like Wit, he received a 70 Beyer Speed Figure, which is tops in the 12-horse Sanford field.
“I liked him but I can say I was pleasantly surprised by his first run,” said Walsh. “Every time we worked him, it seemed like he did something wrong. He didn’t get it all together, I guess, until race day. He broke well, did everything right, and kind of won in hand, so I think there is some improvement in him.”
Candy Landing will break adjacent to Wit in post 2, with James Graham aboard again.
“He broke pretty well last time and if he breaks that way again he should be forwardly placed being down on the inside,” said Walsh.
Kavod and Trust Our Journey finished second and third in the 5 1/2-furlong Tremont over a muddy strip at Belmont on June 4. Kavod was easily best of the pair, rallying from last in the four-horse field while showing improvement in his third start.
Maryland Brando will try to step forward off an extremely impressive 11 1/2-length debut win going five furlongs at Delaware Park on June 2. He is expected to force the early pace along with Candy Landing, Trust Our Journey, Dance Code, and Due Vini.
Ottoman Empire, who also won his only start, might appreciate a contentious pace scenario, having rallied from seventh in an 11-horse field to win by a length at Churchill on June 20. He loses the services of Graham, who opted to ride Candy Landing in the Sanford, with Jose Ortiz picking up the call on Ottoman Empire for trainer Tom Amoss.
|RACE 10 SARATOGA GROUP 1>>>>|
Althiqa owns a 2-1 advantage over her stablemate Summer Romance, including a victory in the Grade 1 Just a Game at Belmont Park last month.
Summer Romance looks to even the score while giving Godolphin Racing another Grade 1 victory in the United States when those two head an eight-horse field scheduled to run in Saturday’s Grade 1, $500,000 Diana Stakes at Saratoga.
Summer Romance set the pace in the Just a Game only to be run down by Althiqa in the one-mile race. The Diana is run at 1 1/8 miles, a distance at which Summer Romance beat Althiqa in the Group 2 Balanchine last February at Meydan.
“You would, based on that evidence, favor Summer Romance over Althiqa but at the end of the day it’s so closely coupled,” said Charlie Appleby, who trains both fillies for Godolphin Racing. “When they ran in the Just a Game, Althiqa ran her down well.”
Summer Romance, a 4-year-old daughter of Kingman, looks like the primary speed in the Diana. She breaks from post 6 under Luis Saez, who was aboard in the Just a Game.
Althiqa, who will be ridden by Manny Franco, will likely be off the pace early as she was in the Just a Game.
“They’ll both be ridden in similar style” to the Just a Game, Appleby said. “Althiqa will be given every chance to see that [added] furlong out.”
Chad Brown has won the last five Dianas and six overall. Saturday, he sends out Lemista and Pocket Square. Lemista, a 4-year-old daughter of Raven’s Pass, finished second to Harvey’s Lil Goil in the Grade 3 Beaugay going 1 1/16 miles on May 8 at Belmont. That was her first start in eight months and first for Brown.
Lemista is 2 for 2 at 1 1/8 miles, including a victory in the Group 2 Kilroy Estate Stakes last July at The Curragh in Ireland.
Brown said the nine-furlong distance “is what she wants to do and it looks like she won’t have any trouble handling some give in the ground.”
Lemista, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, will break from post 7 under Irad Ortiz Jr.
Pocket Square, a 4-year-old daughter of Night of Thunder, won an allowance race at Keeneland in April before finishing fifth in the Just a Game as the favorite. Brown noted that Pocket Square missed a workout leading up to the race and that she may not have cared for the softer turf condition on the day.
“I’m hoping with Pocket Square it was more due to missing a work and less due to the ground,” Brown said. “Certainly, in Europe she ran well over soft ground.”
The ever-changing Saratoga forecast now has just a 40 percent chance of showers on Saturday after dry days Thursday and Friday. Several inches of rain fell earlier in the week.
Trainer Bill Mott is hoping for dry weather for Harvey’s Lil Goil. She had a terrific fall, winning the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II and finishing third, beaten a neck, in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.
|HANDICAPPING THE NEW DIGITAL XRAY FORMAT- BIODATA HERES WHAT THEY HAVE TODAY LADIES AND GENTS|
|One of our Pix last week at Lone Star was scratched in the morning, and the other one we preferred was scratched at the gate at Monmouth. That left three fillies to play at Monmouth and the one we liked never got out of a gallop while the other two finished first and fourth, so some gimmicks were preserved. It was a decent week for 2-year-old BreezeFigs maidens as six others won besides the one at Monmouth: Ellis Park (four, including three on Saturday, one of which was a BreezeFigs exacta); Gulfstream and another at Monmouth. Only two 3-year-olds broke their maidens—at Belterra and Woodbine. Today’s cards are all over the place but we decided to stick with tradition and see what’s up at the Spa. Fortunately, we’ve got one on each card to focus upon, see below. Stay safe and good luck!|
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: http://www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
Saratoga, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf)
There are two BreezeFigs colts in a race which will most likely not produce any talking horses, but the first-timer, War Smoke, has a sneaky profile and a decent morning line so he may be worth pursuing. He threw in a bummer at OBSAPR last year with a seven-under-Par Group 4 profile that featured a 24.03 foot stride length (SL), which was a half-foot shorter than average for colts that day at a furlong. He was promptly scratched (SCR) from the sale and wheeled back into EASMAY where his even-Par Group 1 ticket was posted with a 24.55 foot SL, just above average that day. I’m Blaming You comes off a long layoff where his two efforts, both on the weeds, were not as encouraging as his four-over-Par Group 2 effort at OBSMAR would suggest, but his 24.29 foot SL was just above average that day. War Smoke looks like an eminently playable gimmick.
Saratoga, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
Five BreezeFigs colts are in here including a previous Pick, Carpe All Day who is at 10-to-1 in the morning line. That gives you an idea how tough this race is likely to be since he did quite well in his debut franking his six-over-Par Group 2 effort at OBSMAR that featured a 25.25 foot SL, a foot longer than average for colts that day at a furlong. They made Chattalot the morning line favorite in here but not on our account—he tossed in a four-under-Par Group 4 effort at OBSAPR with a 22.69 foot SL which was a foot and a third shorter than average that day. But he’s got the connections, so something may have been wrong with him at the sale. Seal Beach breezed at the same sale on another day and tossed in a one-over-Par Group 1 effort with a basically average 24.17 foot SL. The hilariously named Fromanothamutha posted a very good three-over-Par Group 1 effort at OBSMAR where his 25.08 foot SL was more than three-quarters of a foot longer than average; he is on the rail and that is never an advantage at the Spa unless you can get off like a rocket. The other BreezeFigs colt in here, Street Fight, posted a seven-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSJUN with a 25,34 foot SL, a foot and a third longer than average that day but was not sold (RNA) at 95k. He is at 50-to-1 in the line probably because he ran six days ago at Monmouth and even though he did well, there is probably a good chance he won’t start back that quickly, or might be coming back too soon. This is a tough play but we like Carpe All Day as your key with Seal Beach and Fromanothamutha as gimmick plays, and if the board is exploding, throw in Chattalot. Good luck.
|DELMAR- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- DEL MAR JULY 17- SATURDAY PACIFICTIME 1PM|
|RACE 1>>> #1 POSEIDONS KID -1-2-4|
|RACE 2->>>#1 ROCKTILLYOUDROP- =WIN- 1-4-6|
|RACE 3->>> #1 EREBUS -#7 MOB BOSS santa anita 47 Bullet is far better than a Los Alimotos 46 4f why? it is, do research and find out why-? LA is a much faster track it would need to be a 45 from here to perk my interest for What In Blazes/ still you never sure.|
|NEWS HOT ROD CHARLIE MY TIP DISQ- IF YOU BET UK BOOKIES SOME THEY PAY OUT FIRST PAST POST US B365 SKYBET-|
| The $1 million Haskell Invitational ended spectacularly, unfortunately, and in disqualification as Hot Rod Charlie, who crossed the wire a nose in front of Mandaloun, was taken down and placed last for causing Midnight Bourbon to clip heels and fall at the eighth pole.|
With Mandaloun coming through along the rail and odds-on favorite Hot Rod Charlie on the outside of the three horses, Hot Rod Charlie suddenly drifted in two or three paths. Paco Lopez on Midnight Bourbon, caught between Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun, checked his mount to no avail, as Midnight Bourbon clipped heels and fell to the Monmouth dirt.
The two horses still standing battled to the wire, Hot Rod Charlie narrowly prevailing, but the inquiry sign quickly was lit and Monmouth stewards took little time to disqualify the winner.
Midnight Bourbon leapt to his feet, galloping riderless past the finish and onto the backstretch before being caught by an outrider. He jogged back with the outrider’s pony toward the front-side, then turned around and headed the other direction to return to trainer Steve Asmussen’s barn, leaving the track under his own power. Asmussen didn’t immediately respond to a text message asking about the colt’s condition.
JULY 15 OPENING SEASON 2021 TO SEPT 2021
|#Notice***** Next week Saratoga starts wednesday thru sunday each week until September, I dont Work on Wednesdays or Thursdays Usually unless the Races are Huge Races, I just cant get the time off to do Weekdays, obviously I will do Thursday this week as it is special day-|
I have Paid for the full 3 Months of Saratoga Race form to Handicap, and i will put some races where you can handicap with me on all runners -form -Figs -etc, Works /Barn Interviews etc so, if anything is worth doing on a wednesday or thursday out of the Ordinary I will post then-
|FRIDAY-JULY 16-SARATOGA- NYRA- SPA – SARATOGA-SPRINGS NEW YORK |
| SARATOGA TIPS JULY 16–|
RACE 1>> TIP>>> #4 GUN IT, 91 beyer, LTO)
Works good 47 4f Bullet July 4– this track suits those at the front in most races?, however some really hard fast races they can come from far back? Gun it Looks like he could track the pace? I changed my original choice looking at the form, as he ticks most Boxes for Hall of Famer Asmussen to strike the Opening race -Day 2- 2021 meet,
#1 Girolamos Attack 91 #2 Mihos 86, in this order>>>>>>>>>#5 SHAKESMEUP 5.5 f 93 7f >72 scores better Beyers over 5.5 furlongs than 7f and looks a non stayer?? looking at the form, Although dismiss Miller at your Peril, one of my Fav Barns in the world.He has been Quiet though the last month at Santa Anita to his norms?
Pools Exotics 4-1-2
| RACE 2>> |
#8 Quick Return, win 1/2pt 9/5- box >> 8-6- trifecta >>8-6-3
|RACE 3>> #2 Giacosa – #6 classic colours -2-6 boxed exacta 1pt|
|RACE 4>> #5Flaming Rouge- 5-6-8|
|RACE 5>> #5 Absolute Love pools >>5-1-2|
|RACE 6>> #Saratoga Chrome pools >>10-1-4-2|
| RACE 7>>#6 MUSED cut back out of a longer race last time and broke slowly before chasing to no avail vs. a much tougher field than this – each of the first three finishers was dropping out of stakes races, and the fillies that finished 1st and 3rd are both three-time winners already; getting significant class relief for this and she looked pretty good breaking her maiden in her final start at two with a show of speed.|
#9 BAY JEWEL hinted at potential early on before racing a bit inconsistently – though she did run a big one when nearly pulling off an upset at a huge price last December; won each of her last two turf sprint starts easily while earning competitive figures and looks like a nice fit in this field at a price
.#2 TOO SEXY drove down stablemate MUMBAI to break her maiden off the layoff in March and has maintained that form in both starts since shipping up here, though there is nothing particularly compelling about her as one of the favorites; does own good tactical speed for top connections and suppose shorter could be better for her.
|RACE 8> #3 Polished Gem- 3-1-8|
|RACE 9>>>> #3 VALUE PROPOSITION- win>>> reserve #9 Sacred Life|
– Value Proposition has won 4 of 8 career starts. His four losses have come when he’s run in a stakes race. Friday, Value Proposition looks well spotted to end that skid when he heads a 10-horse field entered to run a mile in the Grade 3, $150,000 Forbidden Apple Stakes at Saratoga.
Value Proposition, a 5-year-old ridgling by Dansili, has run well enough to win a stakes, and came within a head of Casa Creed when third in the Elusive Quality on April 24 at Belmont. While Casa Creed came back to win the Grade 1 Jaipur on June 5, Value Proposition won a high-class allowance the following day, equaling a personal best with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.
“I thought he ran super,” Brown said. “He’s been a horse that’s been a little challenging mentally at times. We finally have him in a place now where he’s very focused on his work. He’s really matured.”
Value Proposition has twice won over less-than-firm ground, a factor that could be in play Friday given the fair amount of rain that has fallen this week. Value Proposition won an allowance race here in 2019, the only time he’s run at Saratoga. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides from post 3.
Brown also has Delaware and Sacred Life in the Forbidden Apple.
Delaware, a 5-year-old son of Frankel, won the Danger’s Hour Stakes at Aqueduct to kick off his campaign. He then finished fourth behind a loose-on-the-lead Get Smokin in the Seek Again.
“He’s the kind of horse that needs pace and he’ll come with a nice run like he did in the Danger’s Hour,” Brown said. “I’m hoping getting back to two turns like he was at Aqueduct is going to set up for him. I think he prefers that the more I’m seeing of him.”
Brown believes both Delaware, who drew post 7, and Sacred Life, who two starts back ran third in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland, would move up over soft ground. Brown feels a mile might be “a tick short” for Sacred Life, who breaks from post 9 under Joel Rosario.
The New York-bred Rinaldi returns to Saratoga, where he has won three times from four starts, albeit all against statebred competition. He did run a good second in the Danger’s Hour, setting the pace before getting run down by Delaware.
The front-running Rinaldi will break from the rail and will be reunited with Luis Saez – aboard for all four of his victories. Trainer James Bond expects Saez will “let him roar” away from the gate.
Flying Scotsman, trained by Jack Sisterson for Calumet Farm, looks like the other primary speed in the field.
Logical Myth cuts back to a mile after running second in the Prince George’s County Stakes going nine furlongs on June 13 at Pimlico.
Corelli, Therapist, Made You Look, and Sanctuary City complete the field. Pools >>3-9-1-4
RACE 10 >> 6-1-3-4
yesterday lots of winners and early pic three winning
JULY 16 >>>pick 3 races 1 through 3 >>> 4,1/8,6/2,6/ 8 x bets @50c =$4
pic 6- Races 5 thru 10 >>>>5,1/10,1,4,2/6,9/3,1/3/6,1=64 bets @50c =$32
archives saratoga thursday July 15 below
|THURSDAY 15TH JULY SARATOGA- OPENING DAY- OPENING SEASON -JULY FEST- AUGUST FEST TOP CLASS THOROUBRED RACING- ITS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN- MASSIVE POOLS|
|RACE 1>>1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING : $12,500 | PURSE: $36,000Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3) Early Pick 5 (.50) Races (1-5), Double Wagers|
#5 Charlies Angel 3/1 – box 5-9-6-7
| RACE 2>>5 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | PURSE: $100,000Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double Wagers|
#4 Microbiome>>> 4-9-8
| RACE 3>>1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | PURSE: $103,000|
|RACE 4>> : #3 EVIDENCE BASED |
If this race stays on turf, there figures to be a quick and contested early pace. At least three of the main players – Hohohoho, Mopolka, and Kemba – all do their best running on the front end. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with Hohohoho leading those early, and I do believe this Tom Morley trainee is the most dangerous of the speeds.
She was somewhat unlucky to get disqualified two back when she crossed the wire first, but she actually ran better last time in defeat. She was hounded every step of the way by a filly who faded to finish seventh while setting a very fast pace for the distance. She faded to finish third, a nose behind today’s rival Ocean Air, but I certainly prefer the pacesetter out of that spot.
That said, given the volume of speed signed on here, I want to find a closer. And the best option I could come up with is Evidence Based. It’s obviously not ideal to endorse a filly exiting the powerful Chad Brown stable, especially considering that new trainer Wayne Potts is just 3 for 42 (7%, $1.12 ROI) first off the claim on turf. However, Potts is running this filly back in just 14 days – essentially, on Chad’s training. She was up against a slow pace when she made her debut at Churchill Downs, but she was an impressive winner when dropped in class last time, finishing powerfully through the lane. She’s stepping up in class here, but I think she fits well and she should get a favorable pace setup.
|RACE 5>>| Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | PURSE: $100,000|
#7 ECHO ZULU 7/2 1PT WIN 7-3-2
|RACE 6>> # 5 KITTEN BY THE SEA 2/1 1PT WIN 5-11-4-6|
|RACE 7>> #3 BUSINESS MODEL|
The Shadwell Stable entry figures to attract plenty of support, as both halves are contenders. I slightly prefer Arham, who has run well in both dirt starts since stretching out to a mile.
However, he was supposed to win last time when he had dead aim on eventual winner Yankee Division and just couldn’t forge past. I actually am somewhat more interested in Dust Devil out of that race as he makes his first start off a private purchase and trainer switch to Bill Mott. He’s proven he can handle the nine-furlong distance, and he brings strong speed figures and consistency to the table. Yet, as much as I respect those 4-year-olds,
I’m most interested in a couple of the 3-year-old challengers exiting maiden victories. The one who could attract a bit more support is Southern District, who was a visually impressive winner going two turns at Churchill Downs last time. He got a great trip, sitting just off a slow pace, before taking over in the lane.
He finished up with plenty of energy, giving the impression that he definitely prefers dirt and won’t mind a little added ground. I’d use him, but my top pick is the other Churchill maiden breaker Business Model. The son of Candy Ride made three starts as a 2-year-old and just looked a little raw and immature. He finished well in those two-turn races but was always hitting his best stride too late. Therefore, it was encouraging to see him getting engaged midway through that one-mile event in his return last time. He ranged up at the quarter pole and lowered his head to grind past the leaders through the lane. Brendan Walsh is a strong 14 for 60 (23%, $2.71 ROI) with 3-year-old last-out maiden winners, and this ridgling seems like one who should relish the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles.
|RACE 8>> Trainer Wesley Ward could hardly contain his enthusiasm when asked to talk about Golden Pal and the prospect of the 2020 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner finally launching his 3-year-old campaign on opening day at Saratoga in the $120,000 Quick Call.|
“I am so excited about this guy and about this race,” Ward said. “The work for this race at Churchill Downs when he went in 59 might be one of the best I’ve ever had a horse breeze. He did it in a gallop, pricking his ears. There’s no telling how fast he might have gone if Julio [Garcia] had dropped the reins a little bit and tapped him on the shoulder. He would have just exploded.”
Golden Pal won two of his four starts at 2, including the Juvenile Turf Sprint in wire-to-wire fashion going 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland – the same distance at which the Grade 3 Quick Call will be decided. His lone loss last season on turf came at Royal Ascot when he was defeated a neck by The Lir Jet in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes.
Ward said he purposely waited until this point of the season before finally putting Golden Pal back in action.
“Most of the more important turf sprints don’t start until this time of year, so I planned to have him ready to be at his best from now through the fall and the Breeders’ Cup.”
Irad Ortiz Jr., perfect in two starts aboard Golden Pal, will be aboard once again.
Nine horses were entered for the Quick Call, but Fire Sword and Mr Sippi will run on the main track only, with the former Ward trainee Fauci expected to scratch after running Sunday at Monmouth Park.
The field will include stakes winners Kentucky Pharoah, Second of July, Omaha City, and Jaxon Traveler. The latter is a multiple stakes winner and Grade 3-placed but a question mark trying grass for the first time in his eighth career start.
Kentucky Pharoah will shorten up in distance following a steady diet of two-turn races that included a victory at a mile in the Dania Beach this winter at Gulfstream Park.
Second of July won the Grade 3 Futurity over the Belmont turf in October but finished well back after an unlucky start taking on older allowance horses in his lone start at 3 for trainer Phil Gleaves.
tip>> #3 GOLDAN PAL – #9 JAXON TRAVELLER– 3/1 Exacta 1pt =tri>> 3-9-1 Fauci likley scratch Fire Sword Main track only Thursday is a dry day sunny 30 degrees however rain expected all other days so theres a big chance it could rain on thursday?? if so i will have to change selections for maintrack to Wards Fire sword to win on the Dirt MainTrack, if they go off the turf
| RACE 9>> The only horse that trainer Butch Reid ran at the 2020 Saratoga meet was Vequist, who as a maiden won the Grade 1 Spinaway for 2-year-old fillies by 9 1/2 lengths.|
The first horse Reid will start at the 2021 Saratoga meet is Mainstay, a half-sister to Vequist who, after winning her debut by 7 3/4 lengths, runs in Thursday’s Grade 3, $150,000 Schuylerville Stakes for 2-year-old fillies at six furlongs, the co-feature on Saratoga’s10-race opening-day card.
Reid had Mainstay entered in the $150,000 Astoria Stakes at Belmont on June 3 but scratched to run in a maiden race the following day at Monmouth Park. Mainstay, under Frankie Pennington, took over soon after the start and drew off in hand to dominate seven rivals in a race run over a sloppy track. The horses she beat are 0 for 4 in their next starts.
“She had shown a lot of ability in the morning,” Reid said. “She drew an inside post. All she had to do was get away from there and I thought she’d be pretty tough to deal with.”
“We weren’t looking for that,” Reid said. “The riders just sit on her. She just does it on her own.”
Mainstay will again break from post 2 under Pennington.
Happy Soul, a daughter of Runhappy, won the Astoria by 11 1/2 lengths, running back three weeks after she won a maiden race by 11 3/4 lengths, also at Belmont Park.
Trainer Wesley Ward was initially planning to wait to run Happy Soul in the Adirondack Stakes on Aug. 8, but has been too impressed with the way she has trained lately to leave her in the barn.
Ward said Happy Soul’s demeanor has impressed him the most thus far.
“She’s a little bit of an overachiever,” Ward said.
In his career, Ward is 0 for 34 in graded stakes at Saratoga, 0 for 30 in graded dirt stakes. One race prior to the Schuylerville, Ward runs heavily favored Golden Pal in the Grade 3, $120,000 Quick Call Stakes on turf.
In the Schuylerville, trainer Tom Amoss sends out maiden winners Pipeline Girl and Cartel Queen. Pipeline Girl, a daughter of Air Force Blue, is running back in three weeks after just getting by Trade Secret to win a six-furlong maiden race by half a head.
“She had to wait for room on the turn and angle out and did a lot of things she should benefit from as far as education goes,” Amoss said.
Jose Ortiz rides Pipeline Girl from post 3.
Cartel Queen, a daughter of Cairo Prince, has run twice, winning a five-furlong maiden race at Churchill after finishing second at first asking. Despite the victory, Amoss is adding blinkers to Cartel Queen’s equipment for Thursday’s race.
“She was fairly intimidated being in tight quarters,” Amoss said. “After that race we practiced with blinkers quite a bit and it was a benefit.”
Also a benefit is having Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard from the outside post.
Pretty Birdie, a daughter of Bird Song, won at first asking for Norm Casse and owner John Hendrickson, who is carrying on Marylou Whitney’s racing stable. That June 18 race at Churchill produced two next-out winners in maiden special weight company at Ellis Park.
Trainer Steve Asmussen is a three-time Schuylerville winner. He entered Velvet Sister, a New York-bred daughter of Bernardini who beat just two opponents in an open maiden race at Belmont on June 10, and Eagle Express, a Texas-bred who won a Texas Stallion Stakes as a maiden at Lone Star on June 13.
Queen Camilla, a second-out winner at Gulfstream for Antonio Sano, and Saucy Lady T, a second-out winner at Belmont for James Chapman, complete the field.
RACE CLUES AND TRAINER TALK ABOVE AND BELOW LADYS AND GENTLEMEN
tip >> – #2 MAINSTAY 2pts win 7/2 **********TIP**************#2 MAINSTAY WIN 7/2
Box 2-1-7 more race analysis >>The likely favorite in the Schuylerville, Happy Soul, looks somewhat vulnerable as she steps up to face the toughest field of her career. While she did achieve a stakes victory in the Astoria, winning by 11 lengths, that was an incredibly weak edition of that race.
Among her four rivals, three were maidens coming into the race and Happy Soul merely did what was expected of her. This time the waters get much deeper and she figures to encounter much more serious early pressure. She’s already run fast enough to win this race, but I prefer some of her rivals with upside. The two fillies drawn down towards the inside seem especially dangerous. Mainstay merits strong consideration based on her facile debut score at Monmouth, in which she drew off from an overmatched field by nearly eight lengths while racing in hand. This half-sister to last year’s 2-year-old champion Vequist clearly possesses dazzling early speed, which she’s since showed off in some flashy workouts at Parx.
Stretching out an extra furlong and a half is no easy task, but this talented filly may be up to the challenge. My top pick is the grey filly drawn just to her inside, Pretty Birdie. The Marylou Whitney runner is a homebred through and through, being produced from a sire and dam who both trace back to Whitney’s foundation mare Dear Birdie. She also was very professional in her debut, showing excellent early speed to win by nearly four lengths at Churchill Downs.
She rated well on the lead that day, offering some hope she may not be a one-dimensional front-runner. She’s also been flattered by run-backs from that race, as fourth- and sixth-place finishers both returned to win with respectable speed figures. She wouldn’t have to improve much on that effort to upset the favorite.
SOURCE >>FORM FIRST DAY – DRF– TIMEFORM US– 2ND DAY 3RD DAY FRGUK1 & FRGUK
|RACE 10>> #8 Clever Fellow- 8-6-5-12|
>>>>> pic 6 race 5 through 10 >>> 7,3/5,11,4/ 3,2,1,12/3,/2,1/8,6 =144 bets @ 50c =$72
JULY 16-Thru SEPT- OPENING MEET-DEL MAR-
|JULY – DEL MAR USA- JULY DEL MAR NEXT US TIPS FROM DEL MAR SARATOGA FESTIVALS -SPA BABIES ARE BACK|
|SATURDAY JULY 17TH DEL MAR DEL MAR HORSERACING CALIFORNIA|
|FRIDAY 16TH JULY DEL MAR -SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOP CLASS MEET- OPENING DAY 2021|
|RACE 1>>>#5 Gray Magician- 5-7-2-4|
|RACE 2> #5 Respect The Code- 5-4-7-10|
|RACE 3>>#4 Pulpit Rider, Just about has the best track form 91, Over Fav #8 Going To Vegasv-#7 Catch the Eye Is Dangerous 89 beyer track form 4-8-7|
|RACE 4>>#6 Gianna’s Wild Cat- win 6-1-7|
|RACE 5>>box 8-10-11-12 12 exacta 24 trifectas|
|RACE 6>>#10 Alleva win 1pt 75 Beyer on track 2020 Bestest- 10-4-3|
|RACE 7 #5 Eddie Haskil win -Split with #1 Finnally Here- 5-1-2-6 %47 Exotics 4 best track beyers|
|RACE 8 Special Value tip Friday BOX OF CHOCOLATES 10/1 B365 1PT EWAY- has not got the Beyers needed to win this but I pointed out this Horse 12 months ago as possibly Improver- well theyhave transferred him from few tracks and finnaly won at Santa Anita for us, however that form would be nowhere near good enough- However I think he could be a different Horse this Del Mar season? he is taking on some real smart form in Freedom Fighter Exaulted- Adare & Saville Row=5-4-2-1-3|
|RACE 9- #13 Whatmakessammyrun 10/30 b365 2pts win— STRAIGHT Exacta trifecta 10-8-11|
RACE 10-#4 Mongolian Legend 4-9-8-7
dont miss the Tipping Competeition on the Webpage Delmar ( https://www.dmtc.com/calendar/detail/2021Season ) two tickets to Breeders cup all expenses Paid
|DEL MAR TRAINER JOCKEY AND FORM INFO COLUMNS-BELOW!! ABOVE MORE CLEARER TIPS AND POOLS PICKS|
Opening day of the 2020 Del Mar summer meeting had an eerie atmosphere, held without fans in attendance because of the pandemic. It was so quiet jockeys could be heard shouting at each other for racing room on the turf course and urging their mounts through the stretch.
“It was really strange,” leading jockey Flavien Prat recalled earlier this week. “Del Mar is always a good crowd.”
This year, racegoers are back, although on a limited basis. The 31-day meeting begins Friday before a sold-out crowd track officials estimate will range from 15,000 to 16,000. Customers are required to buy clubhouse, restaurant, or grandstand tickets in advance. No walk-up sales are permitted. There was availability for Saturday and Sunday as of Wednesday.
“We’ll have people in just about every seat,” track president Josh Rubinstein said. “It will be full and lively.”
The atmosphere will not be the same as opening day of the 2019 summer meeting, which drew an ontrack crowd of 31,276, but will be much better than last year when the only observers were largely limited to track employees and stable staff.
Even a smaller crowd on Friday will draw the appreciation of Prat and his fellow riders.
“I think it’s going to be nice to have the fans back,” he said. “It seems like we’re getting back to normal. It’s something you look forward to.”
Friday’s opening day is the first daytime Thoroughbred racing in Southern California since closing day of the Los Alamitos summer meeting on July 5, and the first turf racing since the closing day of the Santa Anita winter-spring meeting on June 20.
Typically, Los Alamitos would have raced last weekend, but when the California Horse Racing Board assigned 2021 dates last year a gap of more than one week was built into the calendar. The week without racing allowed Del Mar to gain revenue from simulcasting for purses, which are higher than recent summer meetings.
“We’ve said this countless times: We’re big proponents of breaks,” Rubinstein said. “It gives horses a break and gamblers a break. When you’re racing every week, having an off week refreshes everybody.”
In summer 2020, Del Mar raced 27 days primarily on a three-day-a-week schedule, down from five-day weeks for most of the 36-day summer meeting in 2019. This year, the meeting opens with two three-day weeks before settling into a four-day pattern beginning July 29. There will be five days of racing on closing week, Sept. 2-6.
The reduction in overall racing dates is a reflection on a declining horse population in Southern California. To entice stables to California, and encourage existing owners to acquire horses from other circuits or countries, Del Mar has expanded a bonus program paid to the owners of horses making their first starts in California, or runners who have not raced in the state in the last 12 months and have started out of state in the last year.
The long-standing promotion, which excludes first-time starters, will pay a 50 percent bonus for purse monies earned for first- through fifth-place finishes in overnight dirt races through the summer meet, and a 40 percent bonus in overnight turf races. All runners, including starters in stakes, earn $4,000 for their first starts of the meeting.
Last year, the bonuses were 20 percent of monies earned in overnight races and a $2,000 bonus for a first start.
Earlier this year, Del Mar added a clause allowing out-of-state runners to have up to two races at Santa Anita in May or June and remain eligible for bonuses through the summer meeting. The provision did not apply to the recent Los Alamitos meeting.
The Del Mar meeting has 39 stakes worth $7.15 million, compared to 40 stakes worth $7.31 million in 2019 and 39 stakes worth $5.25 million in 2020. The richest race of the meeting is the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, a $750,000 race at 1 1/4 miles on dirt Aug. 21.
Overnight purses will be the highest in seven years, thanks to a boost in account-wagering handle during the pandemic.
The 2020 summer meeting had an all-sources handle of $466.6 million, an 8 percent increase from the 2019 figure of $431.9 million. With more racing days this year, and pent-up demand from customers to attend live racing, handle is expected to be strong.
“There is a lot of excitement to get back on track, and we missed having people here,” Rubinstein said. “There is a good buzz around San Diego. From talking to owners and trainers, we see that same kind of excitement.”
Prat led all riders last summer with 50 wins, one more than Umberto Rispoli. Abel Cedillo and Juan Hernandez finished third and fourth in the standings. Joe Bravo and Trevor McCarthy have joined the competitive jockey roster in recent weeks.
Peter Miller led all trainers with 28 wins and is expected to be in contention for the same honor this year along with Phil D’Amato. Bob Baffert, Richard Baltas, Doug O’Neill, and John Sadler are expected to be high in the standings.
Mark Casse and Mike Maker are among a small list of new trainers with stables at Del Mar this summer.
A familiar voice will describe the action. Trevor Denman is back after taking 2020 off because of the pandemic.
|RACE 1 FORM|
-#2 DR. TROUTMAN is better than his last-out debacle; he can make amends first start off the claim by high-percent f.o.c. trainer Doug O’Neill while dropping in class. ‘TROUTMAN has run decent figures vs. better; the need-the-lead veteran’s alibi last out is he was unable to establish position when a longshot set a wild pace, he got discouraged and stopped. Blinkers go back on, and he also faces easier. The challenge is pace. At least three others have similar up-front styles. If ‘TROUTMAN gets cooked,
6 LEPRINO would be in the right spot. A versatile pace-presser who won three of his last four, LEPRINO could tuck into a cozy trip right behind the speed. He won a similar $16k claiming route by 10 lengths two starts back.
7 CONQUEST COBRA returns from a three-month layoff; the 10-time winner runs well fresh.
Flat Racing Guru Analysiss GRAY MAGICIAN 88 Beyer/par -WIN
-exotics >> CONQUEST COBRA- DR TROUTMAN ) Gray Magician seemed to pick up late in the day at Santa Anita, I am sure there is a race like this waiting? I just felt Looking at the works the form was similar to the others but he seemed in great shape on the track at Santa Anita working, & who doesnt want to see a Michelle Yu Opening Meet winner?-a Lovely Brilliant Horse woman assistent Trainer, TV Star-wife and Tipster to the Great Ryan Hanson? a Lot o Barns will start to work at Del Mar soon also-from across the road at Arcadia( top Beyer #1 Studly Perfection=92 )
|RACE 2 FORM DRF>> The 2yo debut gelding 4 MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH appears well-spotted in this $150k maiden-claiming sprint. He kept good company recent gate works with 2yo stablemates: July 9 with filly prospect Mirsasol, July 3 with colt Flying Drummer (works viewed on XBTV.com). All systems go for win-early trainer Bob Baffert and California comeback rider Drayden Van Dyke.|
2 SENATE CHAMBER makes his debut for a stable that pops with this type. Cliff Sise won with 3 of his last 8 firsters. ‘CHAMBER is a sibling to debut winner Secret Keeper and G3 winner Into Chocolate.
8 FORMAL ORDER did not break well in his debut, and also lost ground finishing fourth. Improvement likely second out. AXEL STEEL earned a big fig (62 Beyer) in his runner-up debut at Lone Star, but the race has turned out counterproductive. Seven runners ran back, producing just one second and one third. Perhaps the race was not as good as the figure. ALSO>>
FRGUK FORMLOOK– tip #5 Respect The Code- 8/1 ML- Dam Listed winner 2nd Dam Group 1 placed-works solid- #4 Midnight Mammoth- Dam winner 2nd Dam grade 3 winner, good works #7 Axel Steel Dam 2nd Dam both winners good works programme fast bullets regularly tip5-4-7
#2 Senate chamber below average nicking stats dam unraced, not for me/ Probably win Now
|FORM RACE 3 – #1 Quiet Secretary-She was chasing a hot pace and running without Lasix for the first time when she came up empty in the Grade 3 Wilshire so we are willing to give her a pass; horse that won her previous race is a Grade 2 winner on turf and won a $200K stakes in a race washed off the turf in her next start at Lone Star; this gal should get a cozy trip from her inside post and figures to be in the mix right from the start; first time going longer than a mile but her Grade 2 placed dam won at 1 7/16 miles and lone sib’s ony win came at 1 1/16 miles; not out of the question.|
#2 Disappearing Act>First from Baltas is trending in the right direction and was looking to complete the hat trick when she finished third at this level on June 20; this is a much tougher spot and she beat a modest group in her win in her race two back; she will also have to improve on her career-best 80 Beyer Speed Figure if she is going to compete for the top spot; she could get a nice trip, though, and should be part of any exotics ticket
#3 Craystalle > Winner of her latest is a Grade 3 winner and the runner-up finished second in the Grade 3 Robert G. Dick Memorial in her next start at Delaware; this gal is shortening up from 1 1/2 miles but she broke her maiding going 1 1/16 miles in the $100K P G Johnson as a 2-year-old at Saratoga so she should be okay with the cutback in distance; first time for Miller can be a good thing, and Prat bails on a couple of horses to land here; contender.
#4 Pulpit Rider
She won the $122K Solano Beach for Cal-breds here last year so we know she likes the surface she went into the Solano Beach off a third at this level so have to wonder if this is a prep for that; plus, she has been off since she finished third in the $122K Frans Valentine, also for Cal-breds; four of her six wins came at the one-mile distance of the Solano Beach, too; prefer others.
#5 BLUE Diva
5-year-old is a winner on turf so she won’t mind the move back to the green stuff after finishing third on dirt in the $75K She’s a Tiger at Pleasanton on June 26; her best races have been on Tapeta, though, and the horse that beat her two back at Golden Gate could not keep when she ran at this level at Santa Anita in her next start; this gal could be sitting on a peak performance in the third start of her current form cycle, but others look more attractive.
#6 Avenue De France
She finished a half-length behind Going to Vegas the last time she ran over this surface and her win going this distance in her last start of 2020 was embellished when the runner-up won her next start and the horse that finished fifth received a 91 Beyer for her loss by a nose in the Grade 3 Astra in her next race; this gal was coming off a layoff when she ran an even race at this level in the same race Disappearing Act exits and it is easy to imagine her moving forward with a race behind her; exotics possibility.
#7 Catch The Eye
Just a single third-place finish from five starts here but that third was in the Grade 2 J C Mabee last year and she received a career-best 89 Beyer Speed Figure; she went into the race off a narrow loss in the $82K CTT and TOC stakes, though, and she has yet to be a threat in any of her races this year; probably not
#8 GOING To Vegas
Not much doubt she will be favored following a solid effort in the Grade 1 Gamely which was preceded by a front-running win in the Grade 2 Santa Ana; no wins over the local surface but she must missed in the Grade 3 Red Carpet so it’s not like she struggles here; she could be the one they have to run down but more than likely she will get a nice trip sitting just just off Quiet Secretary; either way, she will be tough to beat; the pick. – Randy Goulding
tips above in tips column
|RACE FORM 4- Based on her third-place Gulfstream Park debut in a productive MSW open to colts, 1DON’T JU FORGET should be tough vs. Cal-bred fillies second out. She ran okay at GP; she lagged early and finished well. Fast subsequent works at San Luis Rey Downs suggest improvement. Also, the second- and fourth-place finishers from her debut returned to win. Potential drawback is the rail. The past five years at DMR, the rail at five furlongs is 2-for-58. 9ABHITA is a Clubhouse Ride first-time starter who has shown promise in the morning. The dam of Abhita was a route mare, likewise her only previous runner (Hapi Hapi). ABHITA may want longer than five furlongs, but she should be running late. 3DENDERA debuts for a stable that Is 7-or-23 with debut 2yos the past five Del Mar summers. DENDERA appeared to be outworked July 3, but her mate in that drill is a good one (Dance to the Music). DENDERA is by Shaman Ghost, whose progeny are 0-for-18 first out. Third preference nonetheless. GIANNA’S WILD CAT pressed and faded in her debut, but should improve second out. Also-eligible BUSKER ALLIE finished an okay third in her debut, a race won by a more well-regraded stablemate.|
|RACE 7- DRF FORM Lightly raced up-and-comers are preferred over the comeback veterans in this N1X/optional claiming turf sprint. 10MCWHERTER is on his way up; winner of his last two starts with a decent figure last out. He won by three-quarters, the runner-up finished seven clear of third. With a pressing trip, MCWHERTER can post a minor upset. If the pace falls apart, closer 7PERFECTIONISTIC could be along in time. His Cal-bred win two back was impressive; he seemed less comfortable on dirt last out. Back on turf, look for him late. 5EDDIE HASKELL is the class of the field. Six of his 10 wins were at Del Mar, he is a two-time stakes winner. However, he has not raced since he was unplaced in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. The “best horse” is entered for a $40k claim tag first start back. LITTLE JUANITO won a N2X his most recent start in October; he also drops in for a tag and is a two-time DMR turf winner.|
|RACE 9 FORM ANALYSIS BRAD FREE-|
Although the ontrack crowd is designed to be smaller than on a usual opening day at Del Mar, there is no shortage of horses Friday when the track kicks off its 2021 summer meet.
An appealing card includes a deep edition of the Runhappy Oceanside Stakes for turf 3-year-olds. Average field size Friday is a whopping 10.6, not counting also-eligibles. It is a welcome change on a circuit that struggles with field size.
Del Mar racing secretary David Jerkens anticipated the break between meets – Los Alamitos ended July 5 – would help Del Mar.
:: Visit DRF’s Del Mar shop for all your handicapping needs: Past performances, picks, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more
“I cannot emphasize enough how significant a one-week break before Del Mar really is,” Jerkens said. “I don’t think a lot of people get that. Breaks in the calendar, if they’re strategically [positioned], are beneficial for everybody in Southern California.”
The week-and-a-half respite paid off opening day. The challenge is to continue the momentum all summer and, as Jerkens said, “pump out quality cards our bettors find attractive.”
Del Mar is off to a good start. The 10-race Friday card includes eight races with double-digit field size, none deeper than the 14-runner Oceanside. The $100,000 turf mile drew the maximum number of runners, and all the top choices face challenges.
Sprint stakes winner Whatmakessammyrun has never won a route, graded-placed Dream Shake has never raced on turf, and stakes-placed Crew Dragon is still eligible to the first allowance condition. On the other hand, they might be the best horses in the Oceanside field.
The eclectic lineup also includes sharp sprinter Harbored Memories; stakes winners Fighting Force and None Above the Law; stakes-placed Hockey Dad, Jungle Cry, and Petruchio; along with Brutto, Flashiest, Ingest, Mucho Del Oro, and No Foolery Here.
A pair of decisive sprint wins by Whatmakessammyrun, including the Desert Code Stakes at Santa Anita, will make the Mark Glatt trainee one of the favorites under Flavien Prat. But even before Whatmakessammyrun drew post 13, Glatt recognized the challenge of an additional turn.
“When you analyze his form, clearly his best races have been sprinting,” Glatt said. “I don’t know if he’ll be as effective going a mile. He might be in the Oceanside because he’s probably going to be the best horse.”
Glatt is right. Whatmakessammyrun is the best horse on turf, and the turn of foot he unleashed winning turf sprints at Santa Anita suggest one mile is within reach. The Oceanside is the first of the three-race turf route series for Del Mar 3-year-olds, concluding with the Grade 3 La Jolla on Aug. 8 and the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby on Sept. 4. But Whatmakessammyrun could go on the road for his next start while shortening to 6 1/2 furlongs. Glatt said a possible autumn target is the Grade 2, $600,000 Franklin-Simpson Stakes for 3-year-olds on Sept. 11 at Kentucky Downs.
Dream Shake scored a runaway victory in a maiden sprint in February at Santa Anita, a 96-Beyer smasher that hinted at spring classics potential. He was not quite ready for longer distances, however, and after Dream Shake ran third in the Grade 2 San Felipe and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, trainer Peter Eurton shortened him to one turn in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs.
He finished second to Jackie’s Warrior in that May 1 race, then shipped to Belmont Park. Dream Shake finished a flat fourth in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens there June 5.
Eurton did not offer a concrete alibi.
“He was a little bit lethargic, he didn’t have his energy,” Eurton said. “It was a different day, and a different horse.”
Back home in California, Dream Shake has trained forwardly. Why turf in the Oceanside for the son of Twirling Candy?
“One of the big reasons is his dad won the Oceanside and Del Mar Derby,” Eurton said. “He’s got an amazing turn of foot. This race will tell us a lot.”
Joe Bravo takes over from Prat on Dream Shake, whose speed figures on dirt are the highest in the Oceanside field.
Crew Dragon makes his California debut as an upset candidate in his first start for trainer John Sadler. Previously trained by Bill Mott, Crew Dragon was purchased for $310,000 at a spring horses of racing age sale and has worked exceptionally well for his local debut.
In addition to a favorable draw (post 3) compared to Whatmakessammyrun, and proven form on turf unlike Dream Shake, Crew Dragon lands a top rider. Umberto Rispoli finished one behind Prat for the Del Mar meet title last summer (50-49), but no jockey rode the grass course better than Rispoli.
Rispoli won with 30 percent of his turf mounts (35 for 114) last summer, and had 14 more turf wins than Prat.
BELMONT DERBY JULY 10 FULL BREAKDOWN
JULY 10 BELMONT OAKS & DERBY
|JULY 10 NYRA BELMONT-NYRA-JULY 10 OAKS- DERBY GROUP 1|
|RACE 1- #1 FORT TICONDEROCA|
|RACE 2- #7 HOORAY FOR HARVEY 7-13-8-10|
|RACE 3- #3 PAY GRADE 3-1-2|
|RACE 4-#8 BLITZ TO WIN 1PT WIN 5/2 – 8-1-3-2|
|RACE 5 >> 6-5-7|
|RACE 6- MAN MIKE – DR BLUTE|
BELMONT>>OAKS GROUP 1>>>>>- CIRONA WIN PLACE- PLUM ALI =PLACE-CON LIMA =2-7-1 TRIFECTA
RACE 8- #7 AUSTRALASIA- #3-MIZZ BRAZIL- #6 RED GHOST-#5 SUPER SENSATIONAL-
RACE 10->> 8-11-3 BOXED ..
|RACE 9>>> BELMONT DERBY GROUP 1-CLOSER LOOK AT THE MAIN CONTENDERS|
#5 DU JOUR 88 Beyer speed par-TRANSFER TO UK RATINGS AROUND 104 TO 106=POSTMARK 122 stretching out for his first start away from Baffert but has looked like one of the better colts in this division while winning three in a row with improving figures; has tactical speed and has finished strong all four times on turf.
#6 HARD LOVE 92 Beyer speed par- TRANSFER TO UK RATINGS AROUND 110 TO 112=POSTMARK 128: has also looked like a player in this division from the start for top connections; easily handled weaker off the layoff and did well to handle older rivals last time after being re-routed from the off-the-turf Pennine Ridge.
#2 BOLSHOI BALLET 96 in English Derby best is 117- POSTMARK 131 : in Irelands average has been 106, runs his penultimate race then he is the best horse on paper>? but i think the top two will beat him in my summary- was impressive in winning his first two starts of the year, prompting his connections to go it alone with him in the Epsom Derby (despite having several colts ready to run in that prestigious race); took a three-wide tracking trip before coming up empty that day, and reportedly came out of it with some cuts and soreness; has a handy running style and may be set to rebound here over firmer ground.
#1 PALLAZI 82 Beyer– 102 UK POSTMARK 116-Was compromised by a slow pace when unable to reel in Cellist last time, and being drawn wide forced him to take back in the American Turf two back, which left him with too much to make up in the stretch; he has been quite consistent so far while more than holding his own at the stakes level; don’t think the added ground will work against him here but he does need to take another step forward.
#3 SAFE CONDUCT- 87 Beyer- UK-107 RATING- POSTMARK 121>>>>Got control of the pace when breaking his maiden first-time turf at Saratoga as a 2yo; appeared to take a significant step forward when winning that allowance race two back with an 87 Beyer, and he defeated a good field that day on the square; back to turf after getting rained off last time and he should not be dismissed lightly based on his most recent start on this surface.
#4 SAINTHOOD- 83 Beyer TRANSFER TO UK– 103 RATING UK Postmark 117
Was looking to make his surface debut in the Pennine Ridge but his connections were likely happy to have him contest that race over the main track, where he gamely prevailed as the favorite; his only start on an alternative surface came the that Turfway Grade 3, where he can be considered an unlucky loser after a troubled trip; has a versatile pedigree but is going to have to be even better on turf than he is on the other surfaces to beat this field.
#7 TOKYO GOLD 108 UK RATING 122 POSTMARK
Clear winner of 1m3f Group 2 Italian Derby latest (108 RPR); this is tougher Dam was a Listed winner in Italy, seems to have limitations on pedigree line? but still capable in this below par group 1- and French Trainers seem to shine in the states. with shippers>-
#8 CELLIST 83 Beyer- *(RATING 103 UK )POSTMARK 117
Is a nose away from bringing a three-race win streak into this spot and he was almost certainly best in the loss when left out of position after a poor start; made a strong, wide mid-move to take over in that spot, and he did not give in easily when challenged in the stretch; he took advantage of a soft trip on the lead last time and has to up his game a bit vs. this field.
#9 HIDDEN ENEMY 83 Beyer 103 UK RATING- 117 POSTMARK
Finally got the maiden victory following a short break in March and he ran well in the American Turf as a follow up when trying a wide run around the turn; was in behind that slow pace being set by Cellist last time after conceding early, and he could not make an impact in the stretch after getting in a bit tight; might be a bit underrated but he really has to improve here
|BELMONT, N.Y. – POST RACE ANYALYSIS From the time Hard Love won his debut over the Belmont Park turf last October, trainer Jonathan Thomas started thinking about the Belmont Derby. Though not everything has gone according to plan, little has gone wrong for the son of Kitten’s Joy who could be the one to upset expected heavy favorite Bolshoi Ballet in Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Derby for 3-year-olds.|
The Belmont Derby and its sister race, the Grade 1, $700,000 Belmont Oaks for 3-year-old fillies, top an 11-race card that also includes the Grade 3, $150,000 Victory Ride Stakes for 3-year-old fillies on dirt. First post is 1 p.m.
There is little argument that the Aidan O’Brien-trained Bolshoi Ballet is the horse to beat in the Belmont Derby, run at 1 1/4 miles over the inner turf course. He is a two-time winner at the distance, has handled all types of ground, and seemed to have an excuse for his seventh-place finish as the favorite in the Group 1 Epsom Derby five weeks ago.
“He’s a real horse, sure,” Thomas said of Bolshoi Ballet. “The best way I can put it is I really wouldn’t trade places with anybody. . . . Maybe Aiden, for a little bit, but not for this horse.”
Thomas wasn’t being cocky, rather confident that Hard Love, who has won 3 of 4 starts, is coming into the Belmont Derby in fine fashion. While Hard Love didn’t get an intended prep race in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge on May 29 – a race Thomas scratched him out of when it was rained off to the dirt – Hard Love did get a race, beating the 4-year-old Desert Peace by a head in a 1 1/8-mile allowance on June 5.
“The fact he was able to engage a horse, get into a dogfight for the last eighth of a mile, and to ultimately come out on top I thought should set us up really well,” Thomas said. “If that wasn’t a tightener, I don’t know what is.”
Course condition could play a role in the Belmont Derby. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain were expected Thursday night into Friday morning, remnants of Tropical Storm Elsa. But that was supposed to exit the area by early Friday afternoon, leaving 24 hours-plus of potentially drying out time.
“I prefer a little cut in the ground as opposed to rock-hard ground,” said Thomas, who won this race in 2018 with Catholic Boy. “I guess it’s more a question of does it move up the [Europeans] and put us at a disadvantage? It’s all speculation.”
Bolshoi Ballet, a son of Galileo, won the Group 3 P.W. McCrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes in April and the Group 3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial – both 10-furlong races at Leopardstown in Ireland – to send him off the favorite in the Group 1 Epsom Derby.
In that 1 1/2-mile race, Bolshoi Ballet was reported to have been run up from behind and emerged from the race sore with a cut on his right hind leg, missing a little bit of training time. His connections feel he is over that issue and look forward to a bounce-back effort.
“He won the Ballysax well, he won the Derrinstown very impressively,” T.J Comerford, assistant to O’Brien said. “It didn’t work out that great in Epsom for him, but I’m sure he’s still on the right path to picking up from there.”
Comerford said he would prefer firm turf for Bolshoi Ballet but noted he has handled less-than-firm ground successfully.
Ryan Moore will be in from Europe to ride.
Du Jour, a son of Temple City, brings a three-race winning streak into the Derby, including a victory in the Grade 2 American Turf at Churchill Downs. Trained by Bob Baffert for those races, Du Jour has spent the last month in the care of Bill Mott as Baffert is currently excluded from participating in New York by the New York Racing Association for a host of medication violations elsewhere over the last year. Du Jour, owned in part by Baffert’s wife, Jill, has been in New York for five weeks.
Du Jour had a very good work on the Belmont turf on June 20, but it remains to be seen how he’ll handle ground that could be on the softer side.
Flavien Prat is in from California to ride.
Perhaps the biggest wildcard is Sainthood. He won the off-the-turf Pennine Ridge and has run well over a synthetic surface at Turfway Park. He has never raced on turf, but has breezed well over it, in the eyes of his trainer Todd Pletcher.
“I think there are a lot of reasons to think he will handle it, you never know for sure until they do it,” Pletcher said. “I would be disappointed if he didn’t handle it based on the way he breezed on it.”
Safe Conduct has been a longshot player’s dream, winning a maiden race at Gulfstream at 16-1 and a first-level allowance here at 38-1. He is coming off a fourth in the off-the-turf Pennine Ridge.
Cellist, Palazzi, and Hidden Enemy finished 1-2-4, respectively, in the Audubon Stakes run over good ground at Churchill seven weeks ago.
Tokyo Gold, who won the Group 2 Italian Derby at 1 3/8 miles last out, completes the field.
USA JUNE 26 MEDLEY OF TIPS FROM AROUND THE GROUNDS LATE
|RACE 6 HISTRICALLY -CHOP CHOP-FIRST SING|
|RACE 8>>>GETRIDOFWHAT-CRYSTALBALL-GRAN BERRY|
|RACE 9 GRADE 3 OHIO DERBY –|
##11 CHANNEL FURY is considered a chance on course form –
KING Fury has last out Beyer best 96,
Keepmeinmind is sure to be well tuned-
the Triple Crown awaits the “second season” for 3-year-olds, with the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby one of the rich prizes on the schedule.
King Fury, forced to scratch from the Kentucky Derby on the eve of the race due to illness, returns in a field of 11 that also includes Keepmeinmind, who contested the Derby and Preakness; later-blooming graded stakes winner Promise Keeper; Hozier and Proxy, both regrouping after passing on the spring classics; and an intriguing new face in Masqueparade, who will be making his stakes debut.
The Ohio Derby headlines a marquee card on Saturday at Thistledown that also features a rich open stakes in the $250,000 Lady Jacqueline for fillies and mares. The 10-race program also includes the $75,000 Daniel Stearns Cleveland Gold Cup for statebred 3-year-olds; five allowance races, one of which has drawn reigning Ohio-bred horse of the year Esplanande; and two maiden special weights. First post is 12:20 p.m. Eastern.
King Fury won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes on April 10 at Keeneland in his only start at 3, rallying to win by 2 3/4 lengths over a sloppy, sealed track. He was training forwardly into the Kentucky Derby, but spiked a temperature the day before the race. He had a brief vacation at trainer Ken McPeek’s Magdalena Farm in Lexington and then returned to steady training in Louisville, breezing five times in preparation for his return.
“He’s been doing super,” McPeek said. “We’re pretty excited about getting him back in a routine.”
In addition to King Fury, Promise Keeper and Keepmeinmind are graded stakes winners. Promise Keeper has won consecutive races at this 1 1/8-mile distance for Todd Pletcher, most recently the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park.
Keepmeinmind was multiple Grade 1-placed last fall behind divisional leader Essential Quality before breaking through to win the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. He is winless in four starts this season, most recently finishing seventh in the Derby and fourth in the Preakness. He has worked sharply at Belmont since the Preakness, with trainer Robertino Diodoro and jockey David Cohen working on honing the colt’s gate skills. Keepmeinmind adds blinkers Saturday, and if he is more forwardly placed, he could join a crowded group up front, as stakes winner Hello Hot Rod and last-out allowance winners Ethical Judgement and Channel Fury are all likely to seek the lead. Such a scenario would suit King Fury.
“He’s steady as it goes, and I think you’ll see him coming late,” McPeek said. “That’s all out of our control.”
Proxy finished second in the Grade 3 Lecomte and Grade 2 Risen Star, then fourth in the Louisiana Derby and Lexington, prompting Michael Stidham to freshen the colt. He will take blinkers off and put cheek pieces on for this race.
Hozier was removed from classics consideration after a disappointing sixth in the Arkansas Derby; he most recently finished second by a head in the Sir Barton. The colt is making his first start for Rodolphe Brisset, who has taken over from Bob Baffert.
The wild card is Masqueparade, making his stakes debut for Al Stall Jr. The colt dazzled in a Derby Day allowance at 1 1/8 miles by 11 3/4 lengths. His Beyer Speed Figure of 97 is among the best in this field.
Proxy ran a 97 in the Risen Star and King Fury a career-best 96 in the Lexington. Only Keepmeinmind and Promise Keeper have also reached 90.
tip #11 CHANNEL FURY
|CHURCHILL>>> FIRST NAMED IS THE TIP- NEXT ARE THE EXOTICS- POINTS AFTER NAME MEANS WILL BE COUNTED FOR STATS AND ADVISED FOR PRO BETTING -ORDINARY TIPS ARE FOR FUN|
|RACE 5- LETRUSKA WIN- VAULT-SPICE IS NICE|
|RACE 6-KINETIC SKY-CAJUN MOON-TYCOON|
|RACE 7-ROYAL PRINCE|
|RACE 9- GLACIAL-LANDSOWNE -RED RUN|
|RACE 10-WISE DAN S.. Grade II. Purse $300,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD|
SOMELIKEITBROWN overall recent work is possibly best- RIDEACOMET has put in a couple of Bullets 2 out of past 4 works- HIERARCHY needs things to fall right and could pop up especially if I dont bet him- MUTAKATIF-66/1 could surprise has been working Like a very nice horse has excuses latest runs- SET PIECE is a solid Individual who has to be feared all round, won here Last day over CD, Steps up in class is the Negating argument.
|RACE 11>>>STEPHEN FOSTER S.. Grade II. Purse $600,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD|
.#10 SPRAWL 20/1 1/2PT EWAY Maxfield will be hard to beat I am looking for a decent eway bet here and Sprawl fits my Profile on this track and works have been encouraging for form cycle
|RACE 12 ADVENTURING 5/1 2PTS WIN PLACE 11/10 switches to Turf which should see a big Improve on Pedigree|
|LOS ALIMITOS RACECOURSE|
|RACE 7- DYNADRIVE- OPREY-JOURNEYMAN|
RACE 8 #3 CLAIRIERE 3/1 Highest last race speed rating -Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters -High % trainer – Hot Jockey in last 7 days (32 9-4-3)
JUNE 18/19/20 INC STAKES RACES SAT SUN
|BELMONT PARK SUNDAY JUNE 20|
|BELMONT PARK SATURDAY JUNE 19–MIKE BEERS THOUGHTS ON BELMONT– EXCLUSIVE FREE TO FRGUK REGULARS WEEKENDS ONLY– top commentary is Mike Beer bottom tips ?? flat racing guru uk|
|RACE 1 11 BETTER WITH AGE failed to break sharply and never made an impact behind a front-running winner when back to turf last month vs. better; has better races than that to get to and has been competitive when dropped in class in the past; needs a trip from the outside but can contend at a price with her good race.|
2 SENGEKONTACKET back to NY after breaking her maiden in the first of two starts in Florida over the winter; tactical filly is logical while projecting for a good trip from the rail. 4 GIGGLE FACTORY landed a perfect trip en route to breaking her maiden over the Widener course last October, and she improved again when coming away second-best in her first attempt in this condition; returns from the layoff at the right level while reuniting with Saez.
FLAT RACING GURUS TIP?? #2 SENGEKONTACKET work was OK compared to Bunch- best figs on this track in an open race
|RACE 2>>>2 ROYAL REALM raced greenly while away from a strong rail throughout his sprint debut earlier in the year, then improved noticeably with experience and some added distance when rallying up the rail and coming up just short in his next start; improved again when breaking his maiden last time and appears to have some potential for Jerkens – maiden winner last, routes: 8 for his last 33, 24%, $4.54 ROI. 3 ARHAM looked good while winning at first asking with a 91 Beyer, and he appeared to have an excuse when getting away last and being forced to chase in his next start; matched that 91 Beyer while getting up for 2nd without an apparent excuse going a mile two back, and not sure that switching to turf last time was a great sign for him; has some questions to answer but expect him to run better back on dirt. 6 YANKEE DIVISION has earned the top three figures of his career in his last three starts; took advantage of a loose lead on a gold rail to earn that 99 in February, but he ran well on a fast pace in his next start while going longer; figures to come out running.|
FRGUK TIP= DUSK DEVIL WIN 1pt place win good Beyer recently on this track 88-90 Royal Realm is getting better and looks a danger Yankee division Aquaduct form is better than these but hes been off and maybe this track he wont score such as high?? 96 94 92
>>> #3 Saratoga Affair – nice tip last race we can keep going on the Turf- #6 Cost Benefit exacta
win >> Lindis’Secret >>win
|RACE 5>>> Combination- 9-6-4 1/4 pt tricast|
|RACE 6>>>1 SHOW ME THE HONEY managed to save some ground when debuting over this course going six furlongs last October, but she was bumped while in tight at the top of the stretch before forcing her way clear, and then put in a strong finish to close that race down; had no chance in the pace-dominated Stewart Manor in her only other start; has to get seven off the bench but has upside while back in with state-breds and may not even have to improve all that much. Any improvement by the top one may prove to be moot if 10 AVA’S GRACE can transfer her dirt form over to turf in this spot; multiple grade stakes-placed filly is taking significant class relief for this while trying turf for the first time, though there isn’t a ton of pedigree to back her up. 2 PROPER GRAMMAR debuted for a $40k tag and only earned a 60 Beyer in victory, but she did some good things there while holding her position while briefly trapped behind horses in the stretch, before ultimately pushing her way clear and winning easily.|
|RACE 7>>>>3 CLEAR VISION likely wasn’t served well by stretching all the way out vs. stakes rivals two and three starts back, and he never had a chance in that last one when outrun in a pace-dominated race at Gulfstream; lack of early speed could be an issue but he is underrated and looks like a nice fit as he drops for the first time. 5 ATTENTIVE came through with a game win when back to turf two back and finding room in time; ran well again last time behind a front-running winner while up in class. 6 NOBLE THOUGHT posted two narrow wins and another pair of close 2nds in his four starts vs. claiming rivals after being dropped in class last October; got wired when failing to make a late impact behind the more tactical ATTENTIVE last time.|
tip flat racing guru UK, I am agreeing with Attenitive from Mikes analylisis but I just want to tip #9 Smile Bryan 5/1 1pt place win I see similar type form and a good works tab along with Beyer 89>>> exotics>>>9-5-3
|RACE 8>>>>> Perhaps getting loose on the lead made all the difference last time, but 6 RISK PROFILE appeared to take a significant step forward in that maiden win while cutting the corner to get away and then blowing that field out impressively with a strong finish; 88 Beyer he earned first off the claim suggests he can be tough right back and see no reason why the distance would work against him. 5 INDIAN COUNSELOR was bumped to the back after failing to break sharply last time, and he could never work his way into contention thereafter in a race that wasn’t coming back for him; has found improved speed since arriving in NY and should be in contention from the start this time with Irad taking over. 4 TOP GUN TOMMY only earned a 48 Beyer while prevailing over maidens in hos second start – though he overcame early traffic to win that race – and he improved to win right back in his next start; returns on the cut back after proving to be no match for Known Agenda when last seen.|
|FRIDAY 19 JUNE SUBSCRIBERS PATRONS MEDIA ONLY|
|RACE 1#4 CARRY ON- 4-2|
|RACE 2>>#4 KERTERA -4-2|
|RACE 3>> DIVINE MIRACLE 4-6-1|
|RACE 5>>#5 LOVE ENOUGH- 5-3-6|
RACE 6 >>#5 WEAPON =WIN 5-6-3 >>> SINGLES AND LUCKY 31 WITH FIRST NAMED SELECTIONS
|SATURDAY JUNE 19 SANTA ANITA ARCADIA|
|RACE 1>>>> #8 Lenas big day Sharp 4F workout (Jun-13) |
47.80 H Hg 4th of 61 in group previoulsy winner of a group of 20 clocking a minte for 5f
Hot Jockey in last 7 days (25 8-5-5)
Breeding suggests she will like the grass
|RACE 2>> #4 Censorship – 4-5|
|RACE 3-#7 CHASING MUNNY- 7-4-1|
|RACE 4 #2 TRAINER PLEASE- 2-7-4|
|RACE 5-#10 Lincoln Hawk- win 8-9-4|
|RACE 6>>. #1 Tripoli|
RACE 7 PRIVATE BET
RACE 8 PRIVATE BET
RACE 9 PRIVATE BET
SEE BELOW FOR Brad Frees Analyisis of all the races at Santa Anita
Lena’s Big Day 2. Queen of Pompeii 3. Chao Mar
First-time starter ~LENA’S BIG DAY^ and debut runner-up ~QUEEN OF POMPEII^, both trained by Carla Gaines, merit top billing in this turf sprint for Cal-bred maiden fillies
and mare. LENA’S BIG DAY has looked solid in workouts (viewed online); she is bred to win early. Debut runners 3yo and up sired by Mr. Big have won at a 22-percent clip;
broodmare Heat Trap finished second by a neck in her debut and the first runner she produced won first out. With the meet’s leading rider, it looks like a “go” for ‘DAY. QUEEN
OF POMPEII ran well first out. She was rated fifth on the rail, blocked behind runners on the turn while seemingly full of run, angled out, ran on for second and galloped out well.
With a race under her belt, she could move way up second out. ~CHAO MAR^ had trouble both starts, she finished with run in both (third, fifth). She will be rolling late. STARSHIP
ENDEAVOR flashed improved speed second out, set the pace and finished a respectable fourth. Improving filly a legit threat on the front end.
Eda 2. Censorship 3. Square Fun
~EDA^ and ~CENSORSHIP^ have repeatedly worked in company for Bob Baffert; the debut 2yo fillies look evenly matched. EDA was quicker from the gate their most recent work
on Monday (viewed online), her sire Munnings gets a solid rate of 2yo debut winners (15 percent). CENSORSHIP held her own working in company with the top choice, it is a close
call which is better. CENSORSHIP was not quick from the gate early this week however, and 2yo progeny of her sire Tonalist won at just an 8 percent clip first out. On the other
hand, the dam of CENSORSHIP was a stakes winner at age 2. Close call between this stable’s first 2yo starters of the season. ~SQUARE FUN^, a Cal-bred facing open, finished an
okay third in her debut. That race looked like a prep, in which case she should improve. KO OLINA chased a pair of runaway winners her first two starts. She is racing into shape;
her speed makes her dangerous.
Chasin Munny 2. Texas Wedge 3. Commander
Who will run early with ~CHASIN MUNNY^? The controlling speed could be long gone in this turf sprint stake, despite finishing last his most recent start. That allowance was
won by the deep-closing favorite, the horse ‘MUNNY dueled with (runner-up Bombard) came back with a decisive win in a G3. This race came up relatively light on sprint speed;
‘MUNNY could shake loose. Long gone? ~TEXAS WEDGE^ should vie for favoritism; the graded stakes winner is the class of the field with enough gas to be positioned second
behind the top choice. He is trained by Peter Miller, who also trains closer ~COMMANDER^. The latter is in peak form, he is improving, and will be rolling late. TILTED TOWERS
ran like a horse that needed the start last out. It was his first in five months. Improvement likely.
Brutto 2. Tulsa Tornado 3. Trainer Please
~BRUTTO^ got caught four-wide through the turn last out, the ground loss cost him the win. He missed by a neck at odds-on. That was only his second start, he should find a field
he can beat soon. First-time starter ~TULSA TORNADO^ flashed speed from the gate his most recent recorded gate work June 5. His stakes-winning dam won her career debut; two
of her first four foals also won first time out. One element of uncertainty is the June 5 drill by ‘TORNADO was his most recent published work. ~TRAINER PLEASE^ set the pace
and tired in midstretch in a promising third-place debut. Sharp half-mile workout since then hints at improvement. MAYHEM AND CHAOS has a pattern of long workouts. Expect
him to be outrun early, and fly late. Trainer Ron Ellis is 10-for-44 with debut maidens the past five years; five of those debut winners paid $15 or higher.
Lincoln Hawk 2. Subconscious 3. Liam’s Love
Close call in this maiden turf mile between sprint runner-up ~LINCOLN HAWK^ and route runner-up ~SUBCONSCIOUS^. The coin-flip call is LINCOLN HAWK, a European
import who rallied to finish second in his U.S. debut in a turf sprint. The horse that beat him by a neck (Harbored Memories) returned to win an allowance last week. ‘HAWK acts
like a mile is in range, and if he reproduces his sprint form on the stretch-out he can win this. However, SUBCONSCIOUS has something the top choice lacks. That is, two-turn
experience. He improved a ton second out when he set the pace going a mile and one-eighth, and only got worn down in deep stretch. Solid runner-up finish. The Tapit colt is dead
fit, and shortening to a mile. ~LIAM’S LOVE^ trained well into his debut in a dirt sprint, but broke slowly, lugged out and finished last. He has continued to train fast since, no
reason he will not handle turf and two turns.
Synthesis 2. Bold Endeavor 3. Route Six Six
~SYNTHESIS^ and BOLD ENDVAVOR have the current-condition edge in this N2X dirt route. SYNTHESIS has taken his game to a new level since being claimed by Jeff
Mullins; he won both starts for Mullins in starter allowance races while earning 90+ figures that are appropriate for this N2X level. ~BOLD ENDEAVOR^ has a win at this level
four back (ran for $62.5k optional claim tag), followed by three seconds also at this level. He has tactical speed for a pressing trip. ~ROUTE SIX SIX^ and AZUL COAST are both
racing for the first time this year. Both are working well, ‘SIX SIX is a better horse, but comebackers from this stable typically race into shape rather than fire first start back. AZUL
COAST comes from a stable that does well with comebackers. The uncertainty is ability. His career-high figure is short of par. But he could be a better horse this year at age 4.
Adare 2. Bedrock 3. Constitutionaffair
~ADARE^ stretches out to what might be his preferred two-turn trip, following a creditable third in a turf sprint that was his first start on grass. A lightly raced 5yo (only nine starts),
he gets a rider switch to accomplished veteran Joe Bravo, a new arrival to the SoCal jockey colony. ~BEDROCK^ also stretches out, in peak form. Exiting sprints, he could get a
forwardly placed trip in a N1X turf mile that is somewhat short on true pace. ~CONSTITUTIONAFFAIR^ will use his speed form the outside post (11 of 12). He used his speed
Page 5 of 5
to win two straight turf miles here vs. easier company; the horse he beat last out returned to win. READY SOUL is a shipper making his first start for Phil D’Amato. Improvement
Ka’nah 2. Palace Coup 3. Littlebitamedal
~KA’NAH^ appeared to be merely prepping in his comeback, fifth in a turf sprint while racing for the first time in nearly a year. His career-best performance last year was going turf
to dirt; the 92 Beyer he earned in that maiden win would defeat this N1X field. If he improves similarly this year, the lightly raced 5yo gelding can score as “best bet” on the Saturday
card. ~PALACE COUP^ ran super last out. He dueled on a blazing pace at one mile, and tired late to finish third. He ran like a horse that will appreciate the cutback to a sprint.
~LITTLEBITAMEDAL^, third against similar last out, will be rolling from behind. ESTABLISHED also goes route to sprint, first start in California and first for trainer Richard
None Above the Law 2. Ferrariano 3. Big Talker
Multi-surface specialist ~NONE ABOVE THE LAW^, a multiple stakes winner, has emerged as one of this season’s top 3yo Cal-breds. The SoCal-based gelding won back-to-back
stakes at Golden Gate (turf and synthetic), he won and placed this season in dirt routes at Santa Anita. The extra distance of this mile and one-eighth turf stakes for statebreds is not
likely to be an issue based on running style and pedigree. Obvious choice, albeit low odds. ~FERRARIANO^ was a maiden facing winners last out when he went long for the first
time and popped at 25-1. The win was not a fluke. He had been crying for a distance of ground, finally got it in his fourth career start, and he beat a decent N1X field. No reason he
will not fire right back. ~BIG TALKER^ finished third last out in a turf mile designed as a prep for this Cal-bred stakes race. He had some trouble, blinkers are on.
Fi Fi Pharoah 2. I’m So Anna 3. Eddie’s New Dream
Last-out maiden route winner ~FI FI PHAROAH^ gets the call in a Cal-bred stakes race for 3yo fillies that came soft. ‘PHAROAH enters on an improving pattern; her only misfire
was when she stumbled at the break two back. Now that she is proven long, and has learned how to cross the wire first, expect her upward pattern to continue. A Cal-bred sire by
American Pharoah, she is the first foal produced by multiple stakes winner My Fiona. ~I’M SO ANNA^ is the most accomplished in the field, a two-time stakes winner in NoCal
who wired a Cal-bred stakes mile last out on synthetic. She figures for a forwardly placed trip just off the speed. ~EDDIE’S NEW DREAM^ goes long for the first time, as a potential
pacesetter. She has worked fast since her promising runner-up comeback in a sprint. Come and catch her?
Ward ‘n Jerry 2. Red King 3. Acclimate
The marathon card ends with a marathon stakes, the G3 San Juan Capistrano at a mile and three-quarters on turf. It is race ~WARD ‘N JERRY^ has targeted all spring. He lost as the
San Juan favorite last year, but that was after he got keen and tried to run off. He settled down in recent races, he will run all day, and gets the call to defeat 2020 and 2019 San Juan
winners ~RED KING^ and ~ACCLIMATE^. The third-place finish by RED KING last out was okay. He defeated the horse he “had to” defeat (odds-on United), but was left with
too much to do in the lane and only rallied to third. It was a good try in a G2, now he drops in class. Six horses have won the San Juan back to back, seven won it twice. RED KING
will try to follow suit. ACCLIMATE, 2019 San Juan winner who finished in front of RED KING last out, is a front-runner who can stay. ACCLIMATE will try to wire the field. If
he gets loose and gets comfortable, it could get interesting
|SANTA-ANITA-JUNE 12 2021 SATURDAY|
|RACE 1- #7 GOT CURLY WIN. 7-3-5 TRIFECTA|
|RACE 2- #1 BELLA VITA 1-4-2|
|RACE 3- #3 SEA OF LIBERTY BOX 3-4|
|RACE 4 #4 Drizella 11/4 Decent works #8 Giannias wild cat works ok but poor %Trainer is a negative Dam produced 1 winning foal they look a motley crew on pedigree and work tabs arent spectacular anything could win but the solid one is Drizella but when i tip juan H he sits motionless and comes and wins later in the month at twice the price|
|THATS IT THE REST OF THE CARD IS FOR MY PRIVATE BETS GOOD LUCK.4|
|Don’t forget Tuesday 15 June on the UK tips page. its 5 Days of tips from myself from |
Royal Ascot. get the best Handicapping and bloodstock Anylisis this side of Dodge UK tips page in the menu bar
|below more tips for Saturday from Belmont and Churchill night meet|
BELMONT -NYRA-JUNE 12th》》》》》》》》6/7
|BELMONT JUNE 12 2021|
|RACE 1- #8 IOVA 7/2 PLACE WIN|
|RACE 2- #2 MILES D. 5/2|
|RACE 8- #5 SADIE LADY. 2/1 NAP 1 POINT WIN. class drop. early speed helps chances. best dirt speed is fastest among bunch. high % Trainer/jockey combo. ran 2nd vs better bunch last race|
|RACE 9- 5-12-3-10 EXOTICS|
|CHURCHILL NIGHT MEET. JUNE 12 2021|
|RACE 4 -75 K TURF. 12.26 am BST|
#5 Flauto 5-7-8 & 5 -8-7
|RACE 6- 106K TURF. 1.30 AM BST |
|RACE 7- 100K DIRT 2.05 AM BST|
|RACE 9- TURF. 150K STAKES. 3.11 AM|
#2 Juliet Foxtrot box 2 -9-1
|RACE 11- DIRT. 100K MSW.|
|BELMONT PARK JUNE FESTIVAL- NYRA- BELMONT PARK JUNE 6 2021|
|TOP CLASS BARN INFO AND TRAINER INFO TONIGHT AFTER RACING IN THE UK DERBY DAY|
| RACE 1-|
Belmont Stakes card is a very interesting bunch of Juveniles which includes a couple of possible short-priced co-favorites., Magical Knight, Inteerested me in his work with his stride pattern-work pattern 26.22 foot stride length (SL), which was two feet longer than average for colts that day, june 1-4f 48.3 >>
#3-HAGLER was clearly second best to Tremont morning line favorite Little Drama on debut while having to beat only one other horse home; moved wide on the turn to chase that strong winner (85 Beyer) and wasn’t hard used late while gaining valuable experience.
#4 WIT by new sire Practical Joke, who already has a debut winner from his first couple of runners, and this colt is a half to Grade 3 winner Barkley, who won the first six starts of his career in the Northwest; pulls Irad off the top one
#8 TOO MUCH ACTION the first foal from his dam, who is a sister to stakes-winning dirt sprinter Montauk Traffic; trainer 16%, $3.15 ROI with his juvenile first-time starters in dirt sprints over the past three years.
tip>>> Magical Knight, 14/1 1/2pt ewy
| RACE 2|
, #6 PIPELINE -6-8-9-10 BOX exacta 12 bets
| RACE 3 group1|
Arguably the best show at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day – aside from the main event itself – was the near race-long duel between Jackie’s Warrior and Dream Shake in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile. Despite setting a blazing-fast pace, Jackie’s Warrior held on tenaciously to a narrow advantage the length of the stretch and won by a head.
On Saturday, Jackie’s Warrior and Dream Shake will take their show to another big stage, Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes Day, where they’ll try to duplicate those performances against perhaps an even tougher field in the $400,000 Woody Stephens. The Grade 1 dash for 3-year-olds lured a stellar six-horse lineup that also includes the multiple Grade 3 winner Drain the Clock, Arkansas Derby runner-up Caddo River, the improving Nova Rags, and lightly raced but promising Tulane Tryst.
Jackie’s Warrior kept his record perfect in one-turn races with his gritty victory in the Pat Day Mile. His only two losses in seven starts came at 1 1/16 miles, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (fourth) and Oaklawn’s Southwest (third). If he has an advantage over Dream Shake in their rematch, it may be his familiarity with Belmont Park, where he won the Grade 1 Champagne by 5 1/2 lengths last October. In his previous race, he won the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga.
Dream Shake never started at 2 but was an instant success once he turned 3, winning his career debut with a 96 Beyer Figure at Santa Anita. He has gone winless in three subsequent starts, including third-place finishes in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, and like Jackie’s Warrior is perhaps better suited to one-turn races.
For those who feel the gut-wrenching battle on Derby Day between the two likely favorites may take its toll moving forward, the logical alternatives in the Woody Stephens would be Drain the Clock and Caddo River.
Drain the Clock has won 5 of 7 starts, with one of those losses coming when his rider fell off during the running of the Jean Lafitte last fall at Delta Downs. His only other setback was a second-place finish behind the odds-on Greatest Honour when he tried to stretch his abundant speed 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. The Florida invader wasted little time rebounding from that loss, shipping to New York for the first time and registering a wire-to-wire 1 3/4-length triumph in the Grade 3 Bay Shore at Aqueduct.
“He’s in good form, although on numbers he’s a little slower than some of the others in this field and this is going to be his toughest task,” trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said. “But he’s never really had to be extended fully going one turn, which leads me to believe he still has a better race in him. He’s going to need to run a lifetime best to win, but I feel like he’s sitting on that.”
Caddo River might be the biggest question mark in the field while adding yet another potential pace candidate to the mix. Caddo River will also shorten up in distance after finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Rebel going 1 1/16 miles and second in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles while fighting for the early lead in both races. He breaks from the outside post on Saturday.
“Obviously, I think the cutback is a positive and I like the post,” said trainer Brad Cox. “He’ll be sitting off of them, and hopefully if there is a hot pace and they come back a little bit he’s going to be a player. What happens Saturday should determine where we go with him moving
tip #4 DREAM SHAKE WIN 4-3-6
| RACE 4 GROUP 2 >> BARN INFO TRAINER QUOTES|
The consistent Lone Rock seeks his 11th victory when he starts among the public choices in a wide-open edition of the Grade 2, $400,000 Brooklyn for older horses traveling 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Robertino Diodoro reclaimed Lone Rock for $40,000 out of a victory going a mile last fall with the hope of stretching the Majestic Warrior gelding out in distance.
“He’s one of those horses that thrives on training,” said Diodoro. “That’s always a good sign of a horse that wants to run on. The longer we train him, the stronger he gets.”
Lone Rock enters the Brooklyn in razor-sharp form. He’s won five of his last six starts, including an overnight stakes going 1 1/2 miles at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Lone Rock’s tactical speed is one of his greatest assets. He’ll break from the outside post in the nine-horse field on Saturday.
“I love our post,” Diodoro said. “I think there’s some inside speed in there and we can just get over a little bit and be second, third, or fourth and hope it will work out.”
Richard Mandella hasn’t entered a horse at Belmont since Beholder finished fourth in the 2014 Ogden Phipps. The Hall of Fame trainer saddled 1998 Metropolitan Handicap winner Wild Rush and returns to New York with Tizamagican, romping winner of the Grade 3 Tokyo City Cup at Santa Anita on April 18.
“He’s always been steady,” Mandella said. “He’s a big, strong horse and he tends to run all day.”
Tizamagician has a high cruising speed and should be placed forwardly.
“He’ll be in the first couple,” Mandella said.
Musical Heart should also be among the early leaders. Claimed for $62,500 by Rob Atras last fall at Aqueduct, Musical Heart went gate to wire in Belmont’s Flat Out Stakes traveling 1 3/8 miles on April 30. He received a 100 Beyer Figure. The consistent Musical Heart has hit the board in his last 10 dirt starts.
Todd Pletcher entered two stout performers in Moretti and Ajaaweed. Moretti hasn’t raced since a victory in last summer’s Birdstone Stakes at 1 3/4 miles, and Pletcher believes these longer-distance races is “what he does best.”
Although Pletcher admits that it isn’t easy to bring a layoff horse back at this distance, DRF’s Formulator application notes the barn has scored at a 37 percent rate with a $2.62 ROI over the past five years with dirt routers following layoffs of six months or greater.
Ajaaweed has won only one race, but the Curlin colt has always hinted at potential. Second in the Grade 2 Remsen at 2 when trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Ajaaweed has improved in each start for Pletcher and gave a breakthrough performance when a late-closing second in the Flat Out, his first start at a marathon distance. Pletcher was impressed how the horse “kept coming on strong.”
“We feel like this is what he wants to do,” he said.
Completing the field are multiple Grade 2 winner Rocketry, second in the 2019 Brooklyn; Grade 3 winners You’re to Blame and Campaign; and stakes winner Ry’s the Guy.
TIP #5 MUSICAL HEART #7 AJAWEED Box exacta
| RACE 5 group 1|
Obligatory ran well enough to win, Dayoutoftheoffice too good to lose, in the seven-furlong Eight Belles on Kentucky Oaks Day. Two races later on April 30 at Churchill Downs, Search Results ran too good to lose going 1 1/8 miles in the Kentucky Oaks. Those three – as well as the highly regarded Travel Column – meet in the middle on Saturday at Belmont Park, in a one-turn mile, the Grade 1 Acorn, that is short on numbers but long on talent.
Only six entered the $500,000 race, but any reasonable evaluation would rank these as six of the top 10 3-year-old fillies in the country right now. The two others are Make Mischief, a late-running third in the Eight Belles, and the speedy Miss Brazil, who gave Search Results all she could handle in the Busher back in February.
The Acorn goes as race 5 on the marathon 13-race card.
Search Results suffered the first loss of her four-race career in the Kentucky Oaks, but it was a terrific performance, as she fell a neck short to unbeaten divisional leader Malathaat while well clear of the rest of the field while earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 95.
“We expected her to run a really big race in the Oaks,” said her trainer, Chad Brown. “It was a super effort. Unfortunately, she was second best. Fortunately, she survived a tough stretch duel in good order.”
Search Results has won at distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles.
“The cutback is fine,” Brown said. “I think she’s good at a mile, whether it’s one turn or two. A mile to a mile and an eighth is her range.”
Search Results drew well, landing the outside post in the field of six. She should get an ideal stalking trip under Irad Ortiz Jr., aboard her for three of her four starts to date.
Travel Column, winner of the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks in March when earning a career-best Beyer of 90, was a shorter price than Search Results in the Kentucky Oaks (7-2 vs. 5-1), but faltered late and wound up fifth, the race shape working against her front-running style. Her trainer, Brad Cox, thinks the cut back will suit.
“I really do like it,” Cox said. “She’s a filly that’s built more like a miler than a mile-and-an-eighth filly. I do think from a physical standpoint she’ll handle shortening up.”
Travel Column drew the rail and figures to be forwardly placed, but won’t have the lead. That will belong to Dayoutoftheoffice, who turned in a remarkable performance in the Eight Belles, her first start since finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was close to a brutally hot pace (21.89 seconds for the quarter, 44.46 for the half), surged to the front at midstretch, and was run down late by Obligatory. John Velazquez takes over for the first time and will try to ration that speed.
Obligatory was the beneficiary of the pace meltdown in the Eight Belles, as she rallied from last in a 12-horse field while earning a Beyer figure of 93, a career-best. That performance was a decided improvement over her lone try at two turns in the Fair Grounds Oaks, in which she finished fourth, 7 1/2 lengths behind Travel Column.
“We thought we had a nice filly going to New Orleans, but she was very green,” said her trainer, Bill Mott. “Going two turns for the first time, it was almost like she was a little confused. Backing her up to seven-eighths last time worked out well, and this is a one-turn mile.”
Make Mischief ran on decently enough in the Eight Belles, earning a career-best Beyer of 88, though she was no threat late to Obligatory nor Dayoutoftheoffice.
Miss Brazil, brought along in conservative fashion by Tony Dutrow, makes her graded stakes debut after crushing overmatched allowance rivals going 6 1/2 furlongs on April 23 at Belmont. Her lone try going as far as a mile resulted in her being second, a half-length back of Search Results, in the Busher. The pace that day was more in her favor than the Acorn appears. Dayoutoftheoffice and Travel Column are another level of front-running rivals.
TIP #6 SEARCH RESULTS- SAVE #2 OBLIGATORY
| RACE 6 GROUP 1|
Patience has paid dividends for Bound for Nowhere, the morning-line favorite in Saturday’s Grade 1, $400,000 Jaipur at six furlongs on Belmont Park’s inner turf course.
“He’s gone through minor little issues,” owner-trainer Wesley Ward said. “Instead of giving whatever the veterinarian’s advice was, say 60 days, I’d give him five months instead of two months. It’s added longevity to his career.”
Bound for Nowhere, a son of The Factor, enters the Jaipur after a win in the Grade 2 Shakertown. Normally quick from the stalls, Bound for Nowhere rallied from off the pace. Ward gave jockey Joel Rosario credit.
“He’s had some issues with the gate as far as loading,” Ward said. “He loaded early and was a perfect gentleman. He was in there for quite some time, so he broke slow. Joel took a hold of him and got him to rate really nice, which I think adds another dimension to the horse.”
Ward has been impressed with Bound for Nowhere’s training.
“He’s never been one to put a lot into his works. For whatever reason this year, he’s turned it around,” he said. “When you see his breezes, they’re eye-openers. He’s sounder at 7 than he’s been since he was 2 or 3. He doesn’t have any issues, and that’s one of the reasons he’s working so well.”
Bound for Nowhere leads a strong field of 12 in the Jaipur, a Win and You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint this November at Del Mar.
Fast Boat, winner of the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint at Churchill, blossomed in his last two starts for trainer Joe Sharp.
“He just didn’t like the Fair Grounds turf course this winter,” Sharp said. “I think there was a touch too much give in the ground for him down there.”
Fast Boat’s versatility should come in handy in a race seemingly devoid of much speed.
“I think he has more finish when he’s able to sit back,” Sharp said. “That being said, his best number came when he sat the pocket trip at Churchill last summer.”
The popular Got Stormy turns back in distance and faces males following a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile, her first race in 63 days.
“I thought it was kind of dull,” trainer Mark Casse remarked. “She likes to run, and I think after she gets a little too much time between races, that probably hurt her a little.”
Got Stormy ran well last year when cut back to sprints.
“It was something we always suspected that she would like,” Casse said. “I think she’s a little sharper coming into this than she was her last, but with her, sometimes you just don’t know what you’re going to get.”
Gregorian Chant ships in from Southern California following three consecutive sprint scores. He looms an interesting price play along with Bill Mott’s Casa Creed. A Grade 2 winner at a mile, Casa Creed cut back successfully in the seven-furlong Elusive Quality.
Mott also sends out Chewing Gum, a Grade 3-placed turf sprinter. Multiple stakes winner Completed Pass, 2020 Jaipur winner Oleksandra, graded winners Stubbins and Sombeyay, and Greyes Creek complete the field. Secret Rules was entered for main track only. 1
#8 GREGORIAN CHANT- Exacta #6 Bound for Knowwhere
| RACE 7 GROUP 1 |
#3 LETRUSKA 105 B, 13/8 4PTS WIN MAIN BET
|RACE 8 GROUP 1 #10 TAMAHERE EWA|
|RACE 9 GROUP 1 BARN INFO|
significant factors played a role in trainer Brad Cox re-routing Knicks Go from last Monday’s Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star Park to Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park.
First, there was the defection from the Met Mile of Charlatan, a horse Cox readily admits Knicks Go is not as good as at a one-turn mile.
Second, there is the recent training of Knicks Go, who will make his first start since February in the Met Mile.
“As far as works go, he’s every bit as good now as he was leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile,” Cox said.
Knicks Go, who won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile by 3 1/2 lengths last November, heads a field of six entered in Saturday’s Met Mile, one of eight Grade 1 races to be contested on the 13-race Belmont Stakes program.
As far as six-horse fields go, this is as solid as it gets. Mischevious Alex has won three in a row, including the Grade 1 Carter. Silver State has won five straight, including the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. By My Standards, who scratched from the Steve Sexton Mile, won the Oaklawn Mile. Dr Post, second in last year’s Belmont, won the Grade 3 Westchester in his 4-year-old debut. Lexitonian is a nose and a head away from being a two-time Grade 1 winner.
Knicks Go won four consecutive races around two turns. He has not run since finishing fourth in the $20 million Saudi Cup, a 1 1/8-mile race run around one turn, on Feb. 20. In that race, he sparred on the front end with Charlatan, who put away Knicks Go only to be caught by Mishriff.
“There’s going to be some question marks if the one-turn mile is what he wants to do,” Cox said. “For a million dollars and a prestigious race like the Met Mile, we really feel like he deserves the opportunity.”
Aiding his cause in the Met is the fact Knicks Go looks like the main speed in the field breaking from post 6 under Joel Rosario.
Mischevious Alex has the rail. He has speed, but he is somewhat suspect at a mile. Yes, he won the Grade 3 Gotham at a mile in 2020, but this field is stronger.
“The concern is there’s not much pace in the race,” said Saffie Joseph Jr, trainer of Mischevious Alex. “The only horse that could potentially go with Knicks Go is probably us. Ideally, you want to ride a horse that may have distance limitations with a little more patience.”
Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call on Mischevious Alex from the rail.
Steve Asmussen won the Met Mile in 2018 with Bee Jersey and 2019 with Mitole. In Silver State, he sends out a horse that has won five straight, including a pair of allowance races in one-turn races last fall in Kentucky.
Asmussen said “how fast” those allowance wins were around one turn last fall make him feel like Silver State is a contender.
Ricardo Santana Jr., aboard for Asmussen’s two previous Met Mile wins, has the call from post 3.
The connections of By My Standards are chasing a Grade 1 victory for the four-time Grade 2 winner. Trainer Bret Calhoun said the mile is “less than his optimal distance” and his biggest concern is Knicks Go being the lone speed.
“When he’s on his ‘A’ game, with the amount of speed he’s got, he’s pretty efficient,” Calhoun said.
Dr Post, second in last year’s Belmont Stakes run around one turn, is coming off a career-best speed figure when he won the Grade 3 Westchester going a mile here May 1. Still, this field is significantly tougher than that one.
“It was a good performance. Hopefully, it moves him forward,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “He’ll have to step up another notch, but he’s one we always felt like is good enough to win a race. He’s gotten close a few times.”
John Velazquez rides Dr Post from post 2.
Lexitonian has gotten super close to winning a big race on two occasions. Last August, he was beaten a nose by Collusion Illusion in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar. Last month, he was beaten a head by Flagstaff in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs. Those races were at six and seven furlongs, respectively. He is 0 for 2 at a mile.
“Going into it, I’m not going to make an excuse that he didn’t stay the mile,” trainer Jack Sisterson said. “He’s training like he will get the mile.”
The Met Mile is a Win and You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile this November at Del Mar.
|RACE 10 GROUP 1 #8 TRIBHUVAN EWAY- #10 COLONEL LIAM|
|RACE 11 GROUP 1 – Essential Quality arrived at Belmont Park just before 5 a.m. Tuesday morning and about six hours later he drew post 2 and was installed as the 2-1 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s $1.5 million Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park.|
Essential Quality was one of just eight horses entered in the Belmont following the defection of his Godolphin Racing stablemate Rebel’s Romance, who was diagnosed with a hind leg infection and was kept out of the race, according to his trainer Charlie Appleby.
Essential Quality, last year’s 2-year-old champion, suffered his first career defeat when running fourth, beaten one length, in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago.
The decision by his connections to skip the Preakness and point for the Belmont was made shortly after the Derby. Essential Quality is one of five horses entered in the Belmont who is following that same schedule.
Brad Cox, who trains Essential Quality, said he felt it best for the development of the horse and his future, that the horse not be wheeled back in two weeks in the Preakness. He’s liked what he’s seen from the horse in his subsequent training.
“After I watched him for four or five days, I was super impressed with how he looked physically,” Cox said Tuesday morning at Belmont. “He was tired, he had just run a mile and a quarter, but he really came around fast and looked like he started to blossom. I definitely think he’s moved forward from the Kentucky Derby, I really, really do.”
Rombauer, the Preakness winner, drew post 3 and was installed as the 3-1 second-choice by New York Racing Association line-maker David Aragona. Rombauer skipped the Kentucky Derby after finishing third in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Rombauer shipped to New York on May 17 and has trained well here. He looked particularly sharp Tuesday morning galloping over the Belmont training track.
John Velazquez rides Rombauer because Flavien Prat, who rode Rombauer in the Preakness, is riding Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont. Prat rode Hot Rod Charlie to a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby and his agent, Brad Pegram, gave trainer Doug O’Neill a commitment two days later to ride him in the Belmont.
Hot Rod Charlie drew post 4 and was made the 7-2 third choice. While O’Neill would have rather drawn outside of expected pacesetter Rock Your World – who drew post 7 – the fact he has Prat overshadows that for him.
“We’d rather be in the one-hole with Prat then outside of Rock Your World with just about any other rider,” O’Neill said. “His confidence in Charlie, the connection they have together, and just the way he’s riding is out of this world.”
Known Agenda heads a three-ply, uncoupled entry from the barn of trainer Todd Pletcher, a three-time Belmont Stakes winner. Known Agenda finished ninth in the Kentucky Derby after losing position when a horse shut him off about a furlong into the Derby.
Known Agenda is in post 6 and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.
:: Enhance your handicapping with DRF’s Belmont Park Clocker Report
Pletcher also runs Bourbonic, the Wood Memorial winner who ran 13th in the Kentucky Derby, and Overtook, third in the Peter Pan, in the Belmont.
France Go de Ina, seventh in the UAE Derby and seventh in the Preakness Stakes, rounds out the field.
As a horse who has made three starts in Japan, France Go de Ina is eligible for a $1 million bonus offered by the New York Racing Association should he win the Belmont.
The Belmont Stakes will go as race 11 on a 13-race card that begins at 11:35 am. The Belmont is scheduled to go to post at 6:49 p.m.
Though there is a chance of rain Thursday and a lesser-so chance on Friday, the forecast for Saturday calls for mostly sunny skies and a high around 80 degree
FLAT RACING GURU UL BELMONT STAKES TIP? #3 ROMBAUER 7/2 2PTS WIN SAVE HOT ROD CHARLIE, EXOTICS >>3-4-2-7 SUPERFECTA
|SATURDAY JUNE 6 NYRA BELMONT|
|RE LOAD PAGES FOR LATER GROUP 1 RACE BARN INFO|
JUNE 4TH THRU 6TH
|SATURDAY TIPS SANTA ANITA 12PM PACIFIC 8PM BST 1 HOUR BEFORE RACING|
|RACE 1First Race|
I Got No Munny 2. Sea to Success 3. Albizu
If he reproduces his last-out 86-Beyer romp, ~I GOT NO MUNNY^ will win right back in this five-runner starter allowance, non-winners of three. None of his rivals have recently
been close to that number. Of course, ‘MUNNY had never earned a fig that high, either. But he broke from the rail his previous start, and raced on turf before that. The lightly raced
gelding (four starts) runs best on dirt, he is quick enough to make the lead, and can be gone. That is, unless ~SEA TO SUCCESS^ pressures him early. The latter scored sharp wins
his first start at Oaklawn Park, then was overmatched last out in a stakes race. A lightly raced 3-year-old with only three starts, he makes his California debut with speed to keep the
top choice in his sights. ~ALBIZU^ defeated N2L starter 3yos last out in a sharp comeback; the win was somewhat validated when the runner-up returned to win an age-restricted
claiming race next out. Golden Gate-based GALLOPING UNO is first-time dirt, a maiden facing winners if he actually starts.
Feeling Grazeful 2. Wishtheyallcouldbe 3. Measureofdevotion
A better-than-looked debut by ~FEELING GRAZEFUL^ sets her up as top choice in this Cal-bred maiden sprint. In her debut three weeks ago, ‘GRAZEFUL ran well. She checked
and was shuffled back after the start, settled behind the pace, uncorked a middle move on the turn and into lane, and went evenly late. Maidens trained by Bill Spawr typically
race into condition rather than fire first out. Tab for improvement in her second start. ~WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE^ might be the fittest in the field, shortening to a sprint after
a solid third last out at a mile and one-eighth on turf. The winner wheeled right back to defeat winners; the runner-up Sunshine Babe was the program favorite in race 3 Friday.
WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE ran well both dirt sprints last season as a 2yo, the cutback/surface switch is not a major hurdle. ~MEASUREOFDEVOTION^ is likely to improve
following a respectable comeback. She had been off a year and a half when she dueled and finished third in the race the top choice exits. V BUCKS also can improve second time out
after she pressed and cracked in her debut.
Reedley 2. Facts Matter 3. Malakai Moxie
~REEDLEY^ may have “bounced” last time when he wheeled back three weeks after a highly rated career-best comeback win. Last out he was odds-on in a $12.5k claiming
sprint similar to this, set the pace, opened up in the lane and weakened to finish third. He was claimed by Jeff Mullins, has had six weeks between starts, looks like the speed of
the speed, and can be long gone. ~FACTS MATTER^ exits the same race, a disappointing fifth. He also was claimed, also has been given time by his new connections, and as a
nine-time winner with high back figures he certainly is good enough. ~MALAKAI MOXIE^ gets in light and should be forwardly placed from the outside post, while longshot
WHATSITTOYA has an upset chance third start back from a layoff. He ran well in his comeback; he lost his rider last time. SEVEN OXEN will be rolling late in a race that should
unfold at an honest tempo.
Bold Article 2. Simmer Down 3. Mucha Woman
~BOLD ARTICLE^ stretches to a mile following a comeback sprint, and gets a nine-pound break from her rivals (five-pound apprentice allowance, plus four-pound claim price
allowance). She is quick enough to establish a forward position if not make the lead outright, and can win this claiming mile for 3yo fillies with an up-front trip second start back.
~SIMMER DOWN^ has an up-front running style that suits the speed-friendly profile for dirt miles this season. She was overmatched against starter allowance foes last out on turf,
and benefits by the class drop to $50k claiming and return to her preferred footing. ~MUCHA WOMAN^ could influence the pace scenario while stretching back out to two turns
and returning to the main track, while VAROMA finished second last out on turf and ran the best races of her career long on dirt early this meet. She might be ranked too low by this
Armour Plate 2. McWherter 3. Hammering Lemon
~ARMOUR PLATE^ is the most successful bridesmaid of the Santa Anita season; his five runner-up finishes leads the runner-up standings. Despite habitually falling short at low
odds, the 1-for-27 gelding is the one to beat in this optional claiming/starter allowance turf sprint. His speed figures top the field, he has enough gas to be forwardly placed in a
sprint without much pace. Wheeling back in six days, ‘PLATE can win with a pressing trip. Can he be trusted? Perhaps only by place bettors. ~MCWHERTER^ wired maiden-50s
last out on turf, and will try the same strategy here as the likely pace of the race. Freshened two months since his maiden win, working fast, come and catch him. ~HAMMERING
LEMON^ was claimed for $25k from a runner-up turf mile. He wheels back in eight days and will rally from the back of the field while shortening to one turn. CAPO MAFIOSO
wired maiden-50s setting modest splits. He seems to be improving as a turf sprinter.
Desmond Doss 2. Tizhotndusty 3. Major Cabbie
Stakes-placed two of his last three starts, three-time winner ~DESMOND DOSS^ remains eligible to the entry-level open allowance condition because his wins were in maiden and/
or Cal-bred allowance races. His most recent dirt route three back was a runner-up finish to multiple stakes winner Fashionably Fast. That effort should be fast enough to handle
these. However, ~TIZHOTNDUSTY^ looms a serious threat if able to reproduce his 92-Beyer runner-up finish last out. The race was validated when winner Contagion returned last
weekend to finish second in another highly rated starter allowance. He earned a 93 Beyer defeating ‘DUSTY, 92 last week. The point is, the fast effort by ‘DUSTY was legit. Two
turns on dirt is his deal. ~MAJOR CABBIE^ is a class dropper with speed. He will take them as far as he can. BACK RING LUCK returns to dirt with an upset chance from off the
Venetian Harbor 2. Nasty 3. Superstition
Page 5 of 5
Despite uncertainty regarding turf, and a seven-month layoff, ~VENETIAN HARBOR^ merits horse-to-beat status in this G2 turf sprint. ‘HARBOR developed into one the country’s
top 3yo fillies last year winning a pair of G2s and finishing second in a pair of G1s prior to an off-the-board finish in the Breeders’ Cup F&M Sprint. She seems to have worked well
for her comeback; she ran okay finishing second on turf in her debut against maidens. Assuming she handles the footing, ‘HARBOR should get a great trip positioned just off the
speed. Otherwise, her Richard Baltas-trained comeback stablemate ~NASTY^ could upset. NASTY has never been a true sprinter and has not raced since opening day, but her upfront style in turf routes suggests she might like this six and one-half furlong trip. She has worked super for her comeback, she runs fresh, and though the inside post is a challenge,
she has enough speed to establish a forward position saving ground. ~SUPERSTITION^ looks like the speed of the field. She ran super finishing second in a similar turf sprint last
out when she dueled through blistering fractions, put away two pace rivals that finished last and next to last, then got collared. Super effort. SUPERSTITION faces less heat this time.
She was mowed down last time by CONSTANTIA, who will be rolling in the lane.
Signofthecross 2. Lightning Fast 3. Unmasked
His four-month layoff cannot be overlooked, yet ~SIGNOFTHECROSS^ returns as the fastest horse in this Cal-bred allowance. He scratched from a turf race last weekend to run in
this dirt race; his recent figures top the field and he has tactical speed for a forwardly placed trip. Tepid choice. Trouble-prone ~LIGHTNING FAST^ is a better horse than his recent
record suggests. The comments in his running lines are rife with excuses: off slowly, stumbled, wide. One of these days he will get a clean trip and post a surprise. ~UNMASKED^
goes long for the first time, with a seven-pound apprentice rider. Expect he will be involved in the pace scenario. BETITO is vastly improved since stretching to routes, two wins and
a second his last three starts. His numbers are only average, but that applies to the entire field.
Magic Man 2. Lansdowne 3. Finally Here
Based on his runner-up debut in a similar maiden turf sprint, ~MAGIC MAN^ is the one to beat second time out. He set the pace first out, opened up and got run over late to finish
a creditable fourth. The 1-2-3 finishers rallied from 4-10-12 positions. Good pace try under the closers-friendly conditions. With a race under his belt, the second-time starter could
be long gone shortening from six and one-half furlongs to six. ~LANSDOWNE^ makes his U.S. debut for a stable that has had uncanny success this season with European shippers
in maiden races: five wins and a second from seven starters. ~FINALLY HERE^ finally makes his career debut at age 5. The workout pattern by the son of Uncle Mo suggests he is
ready to roll. JEDI MASTER goes route to sprint as an off-the-pace upset candidate.
|SANTA ANITA >>ARCADIA JUNE 4TH FRIDAY POST TIME 9PM BST & 1PM PACIFIC DAYLIGHT|
|RACE 1>>>>#5 SEVEN CHIMES, 5-1-2|
|RACE 2->>>#6 INFO TREASURE>>> 6-5-4|
#1 MISS OBRIEN, Stretching out to a mile could see Improved performaces? looks conditioned to run much better than poor Beyer last day, another horse doing OK on the worktrack of SAN LUIS REY TRAING CENTER is #6 Mensa On Top. the Two Mm’s Box 1-6 exacta 40/1
|RACE 4, #1Preciousi Insight 25/1 single- alternative 6-4-5-& 1-6-4-5|
|RACE 5, #4 LUCKY PERDOT-Win- 4-2 exacta 10/1|
|RACE 6>>> 3 ZYDECO MAMA-9/1 PLENTY OF WORK DONT AT HOME- FLIPPING FAST 5/1 is the save box 3-2–|
|RACE 7>>>>> #5 A NEW PIECE>>> 5-2-1|
|RACE 8 >>> BOX 4-3- TRIFECTA 4-3-7|
|PICK 6>>RACE 3 THRU 8- 1.6,-1,6-4,2-3,2-5-4,3 32 BETS @ 50C =$16|
USA STATESIDE MAY 28 THRU 30
MAY 28 THRU 30
HORSERACING PLAYS #ARCADIA
| SANTA ANITA MONDAY MAY 31 HORSERACING PLAYS memorial day three group 1’s -Shoemaker Mile -Gold cup and the Gamely Filly & Mare Group1|
SANTA ANITA SUNDAY MAY 30 HORSERACING PLAYS
RACE 1 >> ARMOUR PLATE- WIN -1-5-4/6 X2 TRICAST
|RACE 2 >> BARSINI RED= WIN|
|RACE 3 >> 2-1-7-6 FUNKENSTEIN 6/1|
|RACE 4 >> BOX 2-3|
| RACE 5 >> #6 SENSIBLE MOVE- |
19% trainer: Sprints >> Breeding suits today’s sprint distance >> Hot Jockey in last 7 days (5 3-0-1) >>>Breeding suggests she will like the grass
WORKOUTS >>>May 22, ’21>>SANTA ANITA PARK
5 F>TR.D-Fast>>1:00.20 H>>1 of 7>>May 15, ’21>>SANTA ANITA PARK
>>5 F>>DIRT-Fast>>1:00.0 H Hg>>6 of 58
>>May 8, ’21>>SANTA ANITA PARK
5 F>>TR.D-Fast>>1:00.80 H##..1 of 6
#8 BEAUTIFUL TEMPLE Looks a threat too has also a decent pedigree x work tab
Bred for Grass Dam Beautiful Kitten (by Kittens Joy) unraced next 4 dams all winner of turf races related to black type winners
SANTA ANITA PARK
>>5 F>>TR.D-Fast>>1:00.80 H>>1 of 1>>Apr 29, ’21
>>SANTA ANITA PARK>>5 F>>TR.D-Fast>>1:01.0 H
>>1 of 1>>>><<Apr 22, ’21<<<SANTA ANITA PARK<<<4 F///<<DIRT-Fast
>>>47.20 H Hg<<<1 of 40
|RACE 6 >> #4 MY TIGRESS-#9 SWEET SONNY – BOX =4-9-10|
| RACE 7 >>|
#6 GOODTHINGSCOMINPINK, saying all the horses i tipped weeks ago what were poor and youd never think theyr ever win to suddenly run weeks and weeks later at all big prices this weekend including and win we may aswell go for this one again. best Beyer on backclass as i was saying. 6-7-5-1-2- nothing between all of this field on Beyers
| RACE 8 >> GROUP 2 Summer Oaks |
win >>>SOOTHSAY 4/5 3PTS “NOT BEEN IMPRESSED AT ALL BY ANY OF THE RIDING THIS WEEKEND LAST WEEKEND- JOCKEYS ON HORSE THAT ARE CLEARLY THE BEST GETTING MOTIONLESS RIDES OUT THE BACK THIS HAS TO STOP” quote unquote
|RACE 9 >> 5-1 Exacta 5-1-4/9/10 trifecta x3|
|SANTA ANITA SATURDAY MAY 29 HORSERACING PLAYS|
|RACE 1 >> #5 THE BLACK ALBUM=WIN 1PT >>5-3-1 & 5-1-3 2 X$10 TRIFECTAS|
|RACE 2 >> #2 GINGA WIN -2-4|
|RACE 3 >> #5 DYLANS WILD CAT|
|RACE 4 >> #2 LUCKY LONG LEGS|
|RACE 5 >> GROUP 3 DAYTONA STAKES– #2 BOMBARD WIN 2-4 Exacta|
|RACE 6 >> 3-1-4 WIN #3 TEETON VALLEY|
|RACE 7 >> GRP 2 STAKES- #4 UNITED WIN 3PTS 4-2-3 TRIFECTA|
|RACE 8 >> GRP 2 STKES= #1 EXULTED WIN 2PTS – #3 SHOOOTERS SHOOT EXACTA|
|RACE 9 >> NO FOOLERY HERE WIN WARBIRD Exacta 8-3-5 trifecta $2|
|SANTA ANITA FRIDAY MAY 28 HORSERACING PLAYS|
|RACE 1 >> #2 DRIZELLA-WIN>#4KO-OLINA-exacta-#6 MUNNY PENNY >TRIFECTA|
|RACE 2 >> #2 WINZER recent work puts him in the picture Trevor Macarthy Rides at Santa Anita Not see that coming. only a few weeks left of the Meet #5 POISEDEN WRATH, good chances on form|
|RACE 3 >> #5 TROUVILLE 5/1 >5-8-6-3|
|RACE 4 >> #3 MOREAVINO 9/2 WIN|
|RACE 5 >> #1 CHARRETE – 4/1>>> 1-2-5|
|RACE 6 >> #3 MANGOTANGO WIN 9/1 1PT Place WIN 3-1 Exacta 48/1 early guaranteed $2 boxed trifecta 3-2-5-1>. first run on dirt for the tip who promises to do OK, THE TRAINER IS A VERY RESPECTABLE 33% SYNTHETIC TO DIRT – in what is an Ordinary race, Keep it classy adds blinkers for a closer and could be closer today if they work – Some may want to take #2 Keep it classy for the win at 7/2 with those credentials but we will see?|
|RACE 7 >> #8 RACETRACKERS -8-2-1|
|RACE 8 >> #3 STREET BEHAVIOUR 75+5 =80 Beyer) 13/2 WIN 1PT EWAY the 5 lb claim gives us a bit of room with a 5 lb on Beyer figs 1.5 length its like giving a pro jockey which she is a 2 length head star – 3-6-4 >>>><<< 80-75-74 BEYERS|
|PIC 6- RACE LEG 3 THRU RACE LEG 8 >>>( 5,8,6)-( 3,4)-( 1,2,5)-( 2,3)-( 8,2)-( 3 ) 72 BETS @ 50C=$36|
MAY 28 THRU 30
|BELMONT SUNDAY MAY 30 HORSERACING PLAYS|
|RACE 1 >>|
|RACE 2 >>|
|RACE 3 >>|
|RACE 4 >>|
|RACE 5 >>|
|RACE 6 >> CORE CURRICULUM|
|RACE 7 >> DYNADRIVE|
|RACE 8 >> BEREN|
|RACE 9 >> ESOTICA >>>> LATE PLAY 8.PM POSTING BST 1PT MULTIPLE X 4 £1 $1 YANKEE TOTAL = 1PT|
|BELMONT SATURDAY MAY 29 HORSERACING PLAYS|
|RACE 1 >> #5 RIOT HOUSE>>> PLACEWIN- BEST WORKS 5-7-10-8|
|RACE 2 >>#9 PLAYWRIGHT =8-9-3|
|RACE 3 >> #6 SUPPLY AND DEMAND 16.1 6-4-1-2|
|RACE 4 >># 7 LORD FLINSTSHIRE Tipped last month on first run here from Gulfstream possibly needs further? but was making up so much ground like i said needs a trip and softer ish ground, possibly will be left with a lot to do- DRUID & RUSH TO HONOR look interesting|
|RACE 5 >> 3-12-4|
|RACE 6 >> #7 POWER UP PAYNTER 6/1|
|RACE 7 >> 4-8-16-3|
|RACE 8 >> #10 FAMILY BIZ-#7 DOUBLED BLESSED – BOX-10-7-2-6|
|RACE 9 >>#7 PUBLIC SECTOR WIN 4/1 1PT 7-8-9-3|
|BELMONT FRIDAY MAY 28 HORSERACING PLAYS|
|RACE 1 >>#3 KITTYBE QUICK turf in the page if the rain stays away 50/1 yet has been working very well as well as the others and last two works were quite decent |
. #4 PAINTERS N POETS has nice works and breeding, he’s not a great works trainer in showing open form he’s quite secretive trainer in works so they work ok and not special so it is something worth bearing in mind? don’t be put off by works from this Barn- a Daughter of Munnings, I remember this stallion does stamp his crops, a Lot take after him which is unusual for early genes to show so much of the stallion, the Dam Burns turn has had 3 foals previous and two have won, The Dam won races from 21 starts- interesting the 3rd Dam Valley Victory ( by Welsh Chanter) won group 1 races
|RACE 2 >> 1-6|
|RACE 3 >> 1-5|
|RACE 4 >> #4 ZEVION-11/2- #1 ALCOOLS 9/2 Box-|
|RACE 5 >> 9-8-4 BOX|
|RACE 6 >> #2 COST BENEFIT- #6 JEANIE B- Exacta|
|RACE 7 >>#5 SCOTTO-6/1 #3 VICTORY BUILT|
|RACE 8 >>11-5-2|
|RACE 9 >> 6 RAISING SAND- 6-11-5 BOX|
HALLANDALE BEACH MAY 28 THRU 30
|GULFSTREAM PARK SUNDAY MAY 30 HORSERACING PLAYS|
|RACE 1 >>|
|RACE 2 >>|
|RACE 3 >>|
|RACE 4 >>|
|RACE 5 >>|
|RACE 6 >>BENEFACTOR|
|RACE 7 >>THE GREAT KATH|
|RACE 8 >> LAILANI|
|RACE 9 >> SAV|
|RACE 10>>> 8-11-3 TRIFECTA|
|GULFSTREAM PARK SATURDAY MAY 29 HORSERACING PLAYS|
|RACE 1 >>#2 SEAMLAUGH- 2-4-6-11|
|RACE 2 >>#5 WILD BIRDCAT- 5-6-4|
|RACE 3 >>#7 BUFFALO MAX 7-8|
|RACE 4 >>#3 LIL GREN MACHINE 3-7-6|
|RACE 5 >> #7 WARP SPEED BABY- #3 MISSION BRIEF =BOXED|
|RACE 6 >>#1 THE ICE BEATS|
|RACE 7 >>#7 GRAN MELBEC PLACEWIN|
|RACE 8 >>#2 DR HARLAN #3 AINT WAISTING TIME #7 ADEEB . BOX TRIFECTA|
|RACE 9 >>#2 OGLALA 6/4 2PTS WIN BEST BET|
|GULFSTREAM PARK FRIDAY MAY 28 HORSERACING PLAYS|
|RACE 1 >> 2-4-5|
|RACE 2 >> #3 MIRTH N MERRIMENT sharp work 33% Sire wins with 1st time Starters|
|RACE 3 >>#8 Calabash- win exacta #3 Cajun Embers|
|RACE 4 >> 2-4|
|RACE 5 >> 4-3-2-1 SUPERFECTA|
|RACE 6 >> 2-4-5-6 GO WITH FIRST TIME LASIX- However #8 Citizen West and #7 Alado are best figged best last time speed figs it is a beauty alright LETS GO POINTS WITH win #7 Alado 1pt 2/1|
|RACE 7 >> #7 SCAR|
|RACE 8 >> 1 UNA LUNA – – 1-6 Exacta|
|RACE 9 >> #8 Hastag Lucky 15/2 win placewin|
ARCHIVES BELOW MAY 2021 =========ARCHIVES BELOW MAY 2021
SANTA ANITA SUNDAY MAY 23 TIPS LIVE BY 8PM BST, FIRST POST 9PM
|SANTA ANITA SUNDAY MAY 23 TIPS LIVE BY 8PM BST, FIRST POST 9PM BST-DONT EXPECT TIPS THE DAY BEFORE HERE HANDED TO YOU ON SOCIAL MEDIA LINKS- MY TIPS WIN A LOT- I DONT PUSH THEM ONTO NO ONE -I MAKE TO MUCH MONEY TO BE LETTING EVERYONE IN- I GO AGAINST THE GRAIN BUT IT PAYS SO ADAPT|
|RACE 1 |
The market has possibly gotten this correct betting wise, however Notre dame switches codes and Ian Glass moved from Golden Gates, Recent Track work Suggests this could be a nice exacta 4-3= 28/1 >>> 4-3-1 trifecta $20
| RACE 2|
IGAKAI hasn’t worked much but has bulleted 46, inexperience may catch him but one for the future, this trainer seems to let me down a lot with good figged runners but overall is a top class barn maybe form is off recently, Bochomo-Bet on Mookie & Barsabas all have very smart works=4-3-1-6
| RACE 3|
#3,Dancing Diana Returning to sprinting could upset the Heavy Beyer and speed of #5 Agreetodisagree tipped last day 2nd again better, it is obvious and probably go off heavy fav currently 5/4, however Dancing Diana could be closing in fast in the straight,
5-3-4= trifecta $20
| RACE 4|
#3 CHOLIMA failed us last day maybe today gets the win? dangers 5 class dropper 1 rail could help 4 good trainer switch % 3-5-1-4
|RACE 5. RIP CITY looks the One however Gregdar who I tipped last twice and won then just beaten cuts back in trip and looks set to push the fav. ORDER AND LAW has chances if the front two are silly rides, 7 i have saw a few Motionless riders here the past few months- wouldn’t that help the big pots tickets? 5-3|
| RACE 6|
#5 Camby previous runs brings the best form apart from last time, what did i tell ya months and months yrs in fact two jockeys to watch. JP-EE, MAYBE THINK DIFFERENT HERE IT IS AN OPEN RACE CHANGED MY MIND 3-1-5
| RACE 7 #4 HUBRIS has #1 AIRMAN to fear for me 4-1 1-4|
drf look at this race however i dontagree and sometimes that is good look at our 3pt bet last night to bet against franks rockette i said he had hard races and we won with the 2nd fav whode worked must much better recent weeks
The little dude and the big dude will meet for the first time in Sunday’s $100,000 Cinema Stakes for 3-year-olds on turf at Santa Anita.
Trainer John Sadler describes Sword Zorro as a colt on the small side who compensates for his size with a patient running style. Sword Zorro won the $100,500 Singletary Stakes at a mile on April 25.
“He’s not a big horse,” Sadler said. “He’s got a beautiful stride.”
Conversely, trainer Richard Baltas said Hubris is “a very tall, long horse.”
Hubris tends to run near the front and has developed rapidly in recent starts for his stakes debut in the Cinema Stakes at 1 1/8 miles.
Sword Zorro and Hubris are two of five entrants in the Cinema Stakes, which includes the speedy Jimmy Irish, who was second in the California Derby on the synthetic track at Golden Gate Fields in his stakes debut April 24. Also entered are Airman and Hudson Ridge, the first two finishers of a May 1 maiden special weight race at a mile on turf.
Sword Zorro, owned by Yuesheng Zhang, was imported from Ireland last winter. An Irish-bred by Zoffany, Sword Zorro was fifth of nine in the Baffle Stakes at six furlongs on turf in his American debut on Feb. 5.
“It was too short for him,” Sadler said. “I thought it was a good starting place. We got a race in him.”
In the Singletary, Sword Zorro closed from last of six in the final quarter-mile with a wide rally to lead in the final furlong.
“I think he’s progressing,” Sadler said. “We’re in the third race of a cycle. He’s taken nice steps.”
Umberto Rispoli rode Sword Zorro in the Singletary and retains the mount in the Cinema.
Hubris will be ridden for the first time by leading jockey Flavien Prat. Hubris was a troubled ninth in a maiden special weight race at six furlongs on turf in January, well-beaten by Rock Your World, who later won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby for Sadler.
More recently, Hubris won an $80,000 claiming race for maidens at 1 1/8 miles on turf by six lengths on Feb. 27, and was second to Du Jour in an allowance race at a mile on turf March 28. Du Jour won the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 1 in his following start.
“I really think he wants a mile and an eighth or a mile and a quarter,” Baltas said. “Hopefully, he keeps growing into his body.”
Hubris is likely to stalk Jimmy Irish, who set the pace in the 1 1/16-mile California Derby.
“He doesn’t have to be on the lead,” Baltas said of Hubris. “I think he will be forwardly placed, especially going a mile and an eighth. He has natural speed.”
Jimmy Irish, previously trained by Jonathan Wong, is now in the barn of Doug O’Neill. A gelding, Jimmy Irish led throughout his debut in a maiden special weight race at 5 1/2 furlongs on April 4 at Golden Gate Fields. The Cinema Stakes will be Jimmy Irish’s turf debut.
1 AIRMAN -Heading the right way; yes, it’s first time vs. winners, but 2 of his rivals are like him and maiden-winners only and another rival has yet to get his diploma so he doesn’t look outgunned at all; the way he’s been finishing hints that this is his first time going 9fs he’ll like it, and the pedigree bolsters that confidence, too; worked well since; all that being said, his lack of speed could leave him with a lot to do turning for home and mean he’s giving some nice guys a headstart and first run.
2 SWORD OF ZORROT he only 1 in here who’s beaten winners and he did that last time out in a stakes on this course; that stamps him a top player; bided his time that day in the Singletary and finished strongly to get up for the score; gets another furlong with which to work here and while it’s his first time going this far he’s certainly bred for it, and as noted his style hints he’ll adapt; figures to sit and finish and a small field may help him avoid traffic issues when his rider does step on the gas. –
3 JIMMY IRISH Sire gets over 7% first time turf winners, over 11% overall turf winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire was 10-4-2-2 for $439K, won a G1, G2, had 3 SPs including 2 G1s, no turf starts; unraced dam has 5 winners from 7 foals to race including Lord Guiness (15-2-4-1, $137K, no turf starts) and Jojo’s Melody (turf winner); first 2 starts at GG were excellent; sure, that means he’s run only on synthetic, but handling synthetic is frequently a harbinger to handling turf; speed to be in it from the start, either pressing Hubris or, if that guy doesn’t send, dictating the tempo himself.
4 HUBRIS Maiden win came on this course at this trip Feb. 27 and he did it in a laugher; was then 2nd in first try vs. winners going a mile here March 28 and not only finished well clear of the rest, but the guy he chased is since a G3 SW on turf; speed to be in it from the start and if Jimmy Irish doesn’t send then this guy might again dictate the pace; and if ‘Irish does send this guy should still get a dream trip pressing that foe to his outside, and being already proven in that 9th furlong figures tough.
5 HUDSON RIDGE He’s a maiden, yes, but note he finished 2nd just a head behind Airman when that guy got his diploma here May 1 so there’s not much between those 2; in fact, if Airman is a player here (and he is) then doesn’t it follow that this guy’s proximity to him makes this guy a player, too?; darn tootin’ it does; has some tactical speed to get a nice trip stalking the 2 to his left; and while it’s first time going this far he’s bred all over to handle a 9th furlong and then some; don’t take lightly, even if he is the only 1 in here without a diploma. –
|RACE 8>>>>> 3-5-4|
|RACE 9, #4 PATRIOT MISSILE 10/1 IF ISNT TO GREEN COULD BE AWAY AND GONE BY TIME THEY WAKE UP 4-1-3-2|
|PIC 3 RACE 1 TO 3 1,2,3,4 -4,5,6-5 12 BETS @$1 =$12|
|PIC 6 RACE 4 THR 9 >>>>> 3,1,5-1,2-1,3,5-1,2-4-2,4 X 72 BETS @50C =$36 .|
CHURCHILL-TWIN SPIRES- TODAYS BEST CARD 11.PM START BST, MIDNIGHT SOUTH AFRICA
|************CHURCHILL DOWNS BIG PURSES FOR NON STAKES RACES 1 GROUP 3 150K|
|RACE 1 |
| RACE 2- |
LITTLE MISS HOT MESS WIN- BLACK KETTLE exacta – 7-4
|CHURCHILL DOWN 4 HOURS TO POST RE LOAD PAGES I AM STARTING WORK KEEP RE LOADING|
| RACE 3|
HES IN CHARGE 9.1 TPT PLACE- 7-3-5 BOX 6 BETS @$$2=12
| RACE 4,|
COLONEL ABBY B- WIN PLACE >> SUKI 8-7
| RACE 5|
with Barn Info THE GRAND WINNING COLORS STAKE 150K 6F
Fletcher and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott seem to have found another ideal spot for Frank’s Rockette, and Churchill Downs bettors surely will be relying heavily on the 4-year-old filly to be part of their exactas again. With Florent Geroux riding from post 2, Frank’s Rockette will be a heavy favorite in the Grade 3, $150,000 Winning Colors, the highlight of an 11-race Saturday night card at Churchill.
First post is 6 p.m. Eastern, with the six-furlong Winning Colors being carded earlier than it might have been otherwise because of a short field. No more than five other fillies and mares will line up against Frank’s Rockette in race 5, which will be run as daylight starts fading to black. The latter races, most notably a second filly-mare stakes – the $110,000 Keertana going 1 1/2 miles on turf – will be run under the lights first used here in 2009.
It was at Churchill on June 21, 2019, that Frank’s Rockette served immediate notice that she could be a standout. Saddled by Mott’s longtime assistant, Kenny McCarthy, she won that five-furlong debut by 8 3/4 lengths and was assimilated shortly thereafter into Mott’s main string in New York for the rest of her 2-year-old season. The bay daughter of the red-hot Into Mischief then was second in three straight graded stakes in New York – the Adirondack and Spinaway at Saratoga and the Frizette at Belmont Park.
Mott withheld Frank’s Rockette from the BC Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita mostly because of the two-turn distance, instead focusing on maximizing her potential as a sprinter. It worked. Last year at 3, the filly won 5 of 6 before simply being outfooted by the top older sprinters in the world in the BC Sprint on Nov. 7, finishing 8 1/4 lengths behind the victorious Whitmore.
Stabled in Florida over the winter, Frank’s Rockette was sent twice to Oaklawn Park, winning the Jan. 30 American Beauty and finishing second in the April 10 Carousel, both with Geroux aboard. She then rejoined McCarthy at Churchill, where she has been sent through four timed works since her last start.
Mott said from New York the decision to aim at the Winning Colors was made partly because of how well the filly has run here; besides her debut, she also was an easy winner of an allowance here last May.
“She’s shown a real affinity for the track,” he said.
With little other speed besides Rising Seas (post 1, Corey Lanerie) opposing her, Frank’s Rockette should be prominent from the opening bell. Down the lane, she’ll likely be asked to hold off Sconsin (post 4, Tyler Gaffalione), a Grade 2 winner in the third start of her form cycle for trainer Greg Foley.
Rounding out the lineup are Tipsy Gal, Bayerness, and Headland.
The Saturday forecast calls for a daytime high of 90. Ontrack admission is $12. This is the second of three night cards at the 38-day spring meet, with one more set for June 12.
◗ Mott and Geroux also have a major player in Delta’s Kingdom in the Keertana (race 9, 10:11), which, unlike the Winning Colors, lacks a clear-cut favorite in a field of 10. Delta’s Kingdom rallied boldly last month at Keeneland before settling for second behind stablemate War Like Goddess in the Grade 3 Bewitch, a turf marathon that also produced Keertana contenders Pass the Plate (third) and Dalika (fifth).
Delta’s Kingdom is still eligible for a second-level allowance condition but has amassed a bankroll of nearly $300,000 when continuing to fare respectably even in stakes company. The 5-year-old mare seeks to snap a 10-race losing streak dating to September 2019.
Temple City Terror has won 2 of 3 over the local course and figures among the fringe players in here, even being untested at this longer distance.
FLAT RACING GURUS TIP IS NOT WHAT THE MAIN PLAYERS ARE GOING WITH FRANKS ROCKET I AM ARGUING HE HAS HAD SOME TOUGH RACES AT OAKLAWN PARK AND I THINK ? #4 SCONSIN IS THE WINNER
TIP #4 SCONSIN 6/4 3PTS WIN LATEST RACE 4 TIP AT SANTA ANITA FOR 1PT WINS OUR FIRST POINTS BETS TODAY AFTER 3 CONTINENTS OF TIPS
| RACE 6|
HOLLYWOOD HOOPLA- SHI O SHI- MY GIRL LEXI should be decent prices box for exacta>> 1-4-3
| RACE 7|
boxed superfecta’s trifecta ?>>> 5-4-7-10
|RACE 8- THIRSTFORLIFE 8/1 1/2PT EWAY 6-3-5-4 EXOTIC|
|RACE 9 TEMPLE CITY looks like this route stretching further will suit? just a couple of points off the top Beyer of 90 91 he’s on 85 with that possible Improvement over this distance Flat racing Guru- Bred for this and visually Looks it staying on in his races >>>4-5-8-10 trifecta|
|RACE 10 >>>> ALOAH WEST SINGLE 1PT 5/6 Beyer superiority 2-4-1|
| RACE 11|
CHANTRY FLATS – BEACHWALKER PERFECT CUT, taking course form agin the field on this Turf race 8-4-5
|PIC AND MIC YOUR OWN PIC 3 PIC 4 PIC 5 PIC 6 FROM MY NUMBERS ABOVE|
MAY 22 SATURDAY SANTA ANITA HORSE RACING FORM ARCADIA
|MAY 22 SATURDAY SANTA ANITA HORSE RACING FORM ARCADIA 9PM START BST|
| RACE 1- |
DEPENDS ON THE PACE OF THE RACE ? BOX 6-1-4-5 INC ALL FOR PIC 3 /4
| RACE 2, GROUP 2, CE CE 2/1 I really Like Ce Ce last 3 seasons Only better Horses in the races preventing me for tipping this gallant Mare, Pic 3 5-4|
drf form >>>>Bob Baffert-trained 5 AS TIME GOES BY is likely to start at a short price in this G2, based on her runner-up two back in a G1, followed last out by a nine-length romp in a G2. She has tactical speed, she is fastest in the field on numbers, and stands out.
Michael McCarthy-trained 4 CE CE, two-time G1 winner last year who scored a sharp win in her comeback sprint, could give the top choice a battle based on her form last year and her winning comeback. However, she is not a confirmed starter. Her options include the G1 Ogden Phipps on June 5 at Belmont.
3 MISS STORMY D is a longshot threat on the front end. She set a fast sprint pace last out and held second behind CE CE. The longer distance of this mile and a sixteenth race means MISS STORMY D can set the pace at a slower tempo. Longshot pace play? THIS TEA and LAST FIRST KISS also entered.
FLAT RACING GURU SPEED DATA>>>>
last out Beyers
CE CE= 90 Best track Beyer 100>> 2020 >>>> WORKS MAY 14 6F 1.13 .1 – 4F- -47.2 MAY IST====Came into her own in the winter/spring of 2020 as she won 3 straight, including 2 G1s so there’s lots of quality here; things tailed off after that, though she didn’t run badly in the G1 BC Distaff to be 5th; got some time off after that and came back with a very nice allowance sprint win here April 17; does the pattern look familiar?; in Feb. 2020 she came off a layoff, smartly won an allowance sprint and then went on to win those aforementioned 2 G1s; well, she just handily won her allowance sprint return so maybe it’s deja vu all over again.
MISS STORMY D, 84- Best track Beyer 92, woks 5f may 14 59.2
AS TIME GOES BY 97, Best track Beyer 99, WORKS MAY 14 100.1 5F MAY 14
| RACE 3 |
#2 NIMBOSTRATUS She won at this level and distance two back and will appreciate the easier company and move back to a sprint after coming up empty in the Grade 3 Senorita; the winner is undefeated in California with her only blemish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf; this gal can close into what should be an honest enough pace; appears to have a big shot in a competitive event. I Like her recent work schedule where Honey Jar seems to be levelling in work this one is getting back to old times in better grade 2 Nimbostratus>> 9/2 1pt ) 2-5-1
| RACE 4|
– Most of the Money wil be on Octopus best bet for many on Track However I am going to take a chance on one whose recent form wont cant win but last yrs form here and at Del Mar and it might be form we can take into Del mar next month, I am thinking Octupus will win but my crazy self tells me to have a go with tipping #6 RED VALOUR 7/1 Risen Lady as in is all speed in work blasting out 47 Bullets agin 49 50 for the rest of the fields a, will they hold on? that is it as the pack will be closing with Octopus
tip>>6 RED VALUR- 7/1 1/2pt win place Save 4 Octopus =6-4-5
|RACE 5 box 6-9 Trifecta 6-9-3|
| RACE 6=|
#7 GONE SOMEWHERE WIN 4/1 Recently-deceased turf expert Vronsky has sired 13% debut winners, including recent G3 stakes winner The Chosen Vron; dam was a precocious sprinter with $49K in earnings; Harris Farms homebred is a half-brother to six winners, including minor stakes Ruby’s Gone Again ($42K); runaway leading rider Prat has the call for a trainer who’s had a productive meet, but McCarthy is 0 for 31 with firsters over the past five years WORKS. 47 4F
EXACTA #8 VAPOURIZED Heat Shield has sired 10% debut winners; mare placed on dirt and won on Polytrack and turf while banking $37K–this is her second foal and her first one is the modest sprinter Mamanuca ($14K); trainer/rider tandem is 2 for 21 at the meet, and Mulhall has solid stats with first-timers. WORKS 47 4F BET 7 WIN & 7-8 EXACTA BOXED
| RACE 7, #7 MADONE WIN 31 ave #6 Going Global |
HANDICAP ALONG WITH ME WHATS YOUR PIC? HERES THE DATA TRAINER INFO
A rivalry could begin Saturday at Santa Anita, where the top 3-year-old turf fillies in California will meet for the first time in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes.
Going Global and Madone, three-time stakes winners in peak form, headline the 1 1/8-mile Honeymoon as the division doubles from one top-class filly, to two.
Going Global burst on the scene by winning all three U.S. starts this year, including the Grade 3 Providencia last out at the Honeymoon distance. Though she has not started in seven weeks, trainer Phil D’Amato is confident Going Global will fire.
“The last thing I’m worried about with her is fitness,” D’Amato said. “Her last two drills going into this race have been nothing short of sensational. She’s fit as a fiddle and ready to go.”
She will need to be, because her main rival is legit. Madone won two stakes in 2020 before finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She returned with a sharp comeback win three weeks ago in the Grade 3 Senorita at a mile.
Madone wheels back on relatively short notice, but trainer Simon Callaghan does not worry about a bounce or the longer distance.
“You never know, but I don’t feel she had a hard race,” Callaghan said. “She’s always been a big, strong, strapping filly. I think she definitely did well from 2 to 3.”
Going Global and Madone will vie for favoritism in the $100,000 Honeymoon, race 7 on a card that includes the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes for fillies and mares, race 2. The field for the Honeymoon includes stakes winners Quattroelle and Pizzazz, along with Majestic Steps, Golden, and Midnight Diva.
Going Global was a high-strung “project” when she arrived this winter after beginning her career winning 1 of 4 starts in Ireland. D’Amato said the main reason Going Global has mellowed is exercise rider Domingo Ramirez.
“He takes extra time with her, waits until the track is quiet before he starts her gallop, and gives her a long walk home,” D’Amato said. “Those little things, and her just trusting him . . . she’s training like a nice, professional filly. She just settled nicely from race to race.”
Going Global has won the Grade 3 Sweet Life at six furlongs, the $100,000 China Doll at a mile, and the Providencia at 1 1/8 miles. Regular rider Flavien Prat is back aboard Saturday. Plans call for Going Global to aim for the major races for turf fillies this summer at Del Mar – the Grade 2 San Clemente on July 24 and the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on Aug. 21.
As for Madone, Callaghan said “the Del Mar Oaks is something we hope she’s going to run in. Depending on how this race goes, we could think about the Belmont Oaks also.”
The Grade 1 Belmont Oaks is on July 10.
Juan Hernandez, who rode Madone to victory last out in the Grade 3 Senorita, rides her again Saturday.
MADONE 80++ IMPROVER Started her career in style with 3 smart wins, all routing on turf, 2 of them stakes; that earned her a shot at the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at KEE Nov. 6 but things didn’t go well at all that day and she was no factor at any point; was freshened and came back in game style to beat a few of these in the G3 Senorita here May 1; not only does that win show there were no ill effects from the poor BC try and subsequent layoff, she can move forward off that run; of course, she’d better as Going Global is tough and it’s a new, longer trip today so there are hurdles; but she’s good. –
GOING GLOBAL 90 Done nothing wrong since coming to the U.S. as she’s won all 3 starts in the States, all stakes, all on this course, including the G3 Providencia at this same 9f trip last time out April 3; doesn’t have to come from the clouds, either, so she can likely gets a nice position not too far off the pace; obviously likes it here and the Beyer from the Providencia makes her the one to beat; but hey, has she beaten anyone as tough as Madone yet, hmmmmm?
| RACE 8 |
REVISIONIST- BARZEL FORCE FIRST TIME LASIX. CAT BENNY good works 2-8-3 boxed
|RACE 9– boxed tricast 7-8-9 play a bit of guess work involved but its not always about Data and figs|
|RELOAD PAGES TREAT THIS AS A LIVE PODCAST WITH DATA GOING UP EACH 10 MINS- I HAVE THREE CONTINENTS TO COVER SO BARE WITH ME|
MAY 21 FRIDAY SANTA ANITA HORSE RACING FORM ARCADIA
|FRIDAY MAY 21 SANTA ANITA HORSE RACING PLAYS NUMBER OF HORSE ONLY ALL EXOTICS TAKE SAME NUMBERS IN ALL PIC POOLS|
|RACE 1-) |
|RACE 2-_) |
#1-#7-#6-#5 2YOS ALL 4 2Y0S SHOWING WORKTAB GOLD, ESPCIALLY #1>>> 46 SEC, BULLETS>>>> BOOM = WON TWO FIELDS OF 27 AND 45 HORSES IN WORK -PREVIOUS WORK ALL GOOD TOO>>> AIN TNO ONE HIT PONY SHOW
|RACE 3-) |
4-7-3 & 7-4-3
4-7-5 & 7-4-5
|RACE 6- |
|PIC 3 PIC 4 PIC 5 PIC 6 RAINBOW 6 PLEASE PIC THEM NUMBERS FROM ABOVE RACES USE YUR OWN SKILLS TO HANDICAP WITH ME|
BELMONT -MAY 9 POOLS
|BELMONT PIC POOLS |
BEST SINGLES RACE 7 #2 BODECREAM
|$1 Pic 4 (Races 6 THRU-9)>>>> 9,12 / 2,6 / 1,6 / 1,5 – $16|
|50¢ Pic 4 (Races 6 THRU 9) >>> 4,7,9,12 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,2,6 / 1,5 – $48|
SANTA ANITA -MAY 9
SANTA ANITA MAY 8
|******SATURDAY-MAY 09-SANTA ANITA -ARCADIA -********|
|RACE 1 ) #2 SLEW SOUTH MENSA ON TOP Boxed 1-2|
|RACE 2 ) #4 STREET ART #6 BOCHOMO, Both Street Bosses Working Like thunder 47 Bullets, Street art Impressed In work leading home a group of 71, which counts if you watch this stuff all the time like me. #2 Finneus, also did nice work Trainer is less % call although has high % Jockey|
|RACE 3 )#3 RESPECTFULLY- 3-1 exacta|
|RACE 4 ) TIZ WONDERFULLY WIN>>.3-6|
|RACE 5 ) FIGHT ON 9/1 1PT Win 1pt place win- was 3rd agin better foes last day, is close to best figs and s entitled to improve in the drop down, the 14/1 earlier was too big 9/1 now this horse is a 4/1 chance all day, 3-2-7-1 boxed SUPER|
|RACE 6 ) TOOK CHARGE- DEFENCE WIN N +split stakes 7-5-8|
|RACE 7 ) WARRENS SHOWTIME 97 B- – PULPIT RIDER 91, B) LEGS GALORE stretches out and is also a possibility here, enough in pedigree to say their could be Improvement – theirs a ton of archives below and you can crack my code -1000111110110011110010010001Less is better- more is less|
|RACE 8 #CONTAGION 1-4-5|
|RACE 9 ) FRATTELLI -ADARE -CITY RAGE Box 7-2-10|
|GOLDEN HOUR PIC 4|
|LEG 1) (SA=R-8)-(1-4 )=(LEG 2) (GG=R8)-(1 -)|
LEG 3) (SA-R-9)-(2-7-10 )-(LEG 4) (GG=R9) -(1-5-6 ) =18 bets @ $1 =$18
SUNDAYS PLAYS CHURCHILL -GULFSTREAM-LONE STAR
|**********STATESIDE SUNDAY MAY 09- HORSEPLAYERS POOLS|
PIC 6 RAINBOW 6=RACE 6 THRU 11>>>2,4,7/ 3,4/ 3,4,7/3/ 5,7/ 3,7- X 72 BETS @ 50C =$36
PIC 3 RACE 2 THRU 4 >>>1,3/ 2,5,8/ 2,4,6 18 X50C =$9 PIC 6 RACES 5 THRU 10 >>>2,3/2,5/3,6,/3/2,6,10/3,8,9X 72 BETS @50C=$36
LONE STAR )
PIC 6- RACES 5 THRU 10>>>3/2,3,4,5/2,3,4/2/5,7/3,10 X 64 BETS @ 50C =$32
ARCHIVES BELOW =============================ARCHIVES BELOW 2021
BELMONT MAY 8TH-STAKES-FESTIVAL 1-2021
|************BELMONT-PARK-NYRA-BELMONT-PARK-NYRA**************SATURDAY MAY 08|
#2 VILLAINOUS projects to have something to run at here as he exits the two fastest races on his life; all four of his wins to date have come out of town but he is more lightly-raced than most in this field as he cuts back. 89 Byer LTO Tops this field. work is OK,
#5 POTANTICO is taking a significant drop in class for his NY debut after facing the likes of Tizamagician (Grade 3 winner and 2nd in a Grade 2 since that January win), Bold Endeavor (three straight 90+ Beyers recently) and Magic on Tap (91 Beyer for that win last time) in his last three starts; has the tactical speed to keep up as Irad takes over.
TIP>>>2-5-4 )))))))) KEEP RELOADING PAGES BELMONT PLAYS ARE BEING POSTED NOW NEXT WILL BE SANTA ANITA
| RACE 2) |
#10 STRONGERTHANUKNOW broke his maiden right off the long layoff last summer over course and distance, then got into a fast duel in his next start and faded in a race that was dominated by closers; starts back again with the form to be tough in this spot if he’s ready to fire fresh for a second time.
#1 KOKOPELLI KOKOPELLI is a half-sister to the excellent turf sprinter Epping Forest, who also raced for these connections, and she ran to her pedigree and he backing in her lone start last year; got a nice trip in that race while saving ground at a time when that was important over Aqueduct turf, and she fired a good shot to close down a clear leader late; Lasix on for her first start back.
#4 HERALD ANGEL proved to be no match for stakes rivals when last seen, which was also the case when upped in class for her second start out of town; she got early control en route to that easy maiden win two starts back, but she also ran well in her Saratoga debut when taking a game run at a talented rival in the stretch; can improve, and will have to.
| RACE 3) |
#11 KNOW IT ALL RED’s lone start for a tag came two back in a race where she was bumped hard at the start to wind up back out of position, and she could only get up for 3rd at the end; drops back down and cuts back in distance after showing brief speed going a mile last time.
#10 CAPTIVATING CARA just missed in her first attempt at this level in January with a career-best figure, and think she has run better than it looks since then while either contesting fast paces, or losing early position to wind up having to do the chasing; wanted a price in a wide-open race and she rates to fall into a better trip this time, assuming her rider can get her there.
#3 VIVE LA LIBERTY ran well while only second-best at this level three starts back, then chased off the strong rail as the favorite in her next start; was simply no match for a pair of better horses in that short field last time and got left behind after trying to contest the pace; better fit here.
| RACE 4) Group 3 RunHappy- with Barn Trainer Quotes|
BELMONT RACE 4 >>>Following a freshening after a busy 2020 campaign, Firenze Fire is primed to make his 6-year-old debut in Saturday’s Grade 3, $150,000 Runhappy Stakes at Belmont Park.
While Firenze Fire has won or run well at multiple tracks, he has recorded five of his 11 stakes victories at Belmont. That includes the Grade 1 Champagne at 2, the Grade 3 Dwyer at 3, the then-listed Runhappy at 4, and the True North and Vosburgh – both Grade 2s – at age 5. Moreover, five of his eight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures have come at Belmont.
“To have an affinity for a track, there’s nothing wrong with it being Belmont Park,” trainer Kelly Breen said.
Firenze Fire, third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Keeneland, has not run since he finished second to Sleepy Eyes Todd in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream Park last December. Owner Ron Lombardi eschewed stallion offers for the Florida-bred son of Poseidon’s Warrior to have him for a 6-year-old campaign.
He shows a steady series of works for the Runhappy, run at six furlongs.
“I’m eager to see his return,” Breen said. “He looks extremely well, he’s training well. I hope he doesn’t have any cobwebs. A couple of times in workouts we stepped on the gas and we feel like he’s ready to go.”
Irad Ortiz Jr. rides Firenze Fire from post 4 in the five-horse field.
In the Runhappy, Firenze Fire will likely have to run down Chateau, a speedy 6-year-old gelding who had a solid winter for trainer Rob Atras, topped by winning the Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap at Aqueduct. He unsuccessfully tried seven furlongs in the Grade 1 Carter, where he was fourth of five, 6 1/2 lengths behind winner Mischevious Alex.
Chateau is 0 for 3 with two thirds at Belmont. Chateau will break from post 3 under Kendrick Carmouche.
Stan the Man finished second to Firenze Fire in last year’s True North. He came out of that to win the Tale of the Cat at Saratoga. He is 0 for 4 since.
Town Classic, with 20 seconds from 49 starts, and Drafted, a multiple Group 3 winner in Dubai in 2019 who is 0 for 7 since, complete the field.
With only five runners, the Runhappy was carded as race 4 on the 11-race card that begins at 1 p.m.
Only a few months ago, Pacific Gale was earmarked for the breeding shed, scheduled for a date with Not This Time.
But when owner Mike Morton died, a decision was made by his wife, Tobey, to keep Pacific Gale in training, and the 6-year-old mare has delivered two of her best performances, winning the Inside Information and Hurricane Bertie stakes at Gulfstream Park. In between those races, she was sold privately to Holly Hill Stables.
Saturday, Pacific Gale returns to Belmont, where she also has had success, when she makes her third attempt to win the Grade 3, $150,000 Vagrancy Handicap for fillies and mares at 6 1/2 furlongs. She has a second and a third in prior runnings of this race.
Trainer John Kimmel said he made a slight equipment change to Pacific Gale, taking off a German martingale, and he trained her on the jogging path at Palm Meadows. Perhaps that had something to do with her turnaround.
Jockey John Velazquez, who rode Pacific Gale in the Inside Information and who is on again Saturday, also seemed to learn something about her that may have helped, Kimmel said.
“He thought when you put her in behind horses and kept her in there, that’s the way she responds best,” Kimmel said. “Keep her in behind horses, show her an opening, and she’s been very aggressive to make that move.”
Pacific Gale has two wins at Belmont. She also ran well in the 2019 Vagrancy, falling a neck shy of Heavenhasmynikki. In 2020, Pacific Gale finished third in the Vagrancy behind Victim of Love, who won at 27-1 and who is back in again this year for trainer Todd Beattie.
Honor Way found her fountain of youth at the end of her 6-year-old season with victories in the Pumpkin Pie Stakes here and the Garland of Roses at Aqueduct. She also finished second, 7 1/4 lengths behind Frank’s Rockette, in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap here last fall.
French Empire will scratch from the Vagrancy to run in the Skipat Stakes at Pimlico next week, trainer Brad Cox said Thursday.
Sadie Lady looms the primary speed. Piedi Bianchi was third to Pacific Gale in the Inside Information at Gulfstream when conditioned by Steve Klesaris and is returning to the care of trainer Carlos Martin.
Kiss the Girl, who is cross-entered in an allowance on Friday at Pimlico, is coming off a victory in the Conniver Stakes for Maryland-bred on March 13 at Laurel
TIPS>>>4-3-1 4 FIRENZE FIRE has lacked the ‘wow’ factor since switching barns last summer, but he has shown that he can still be competitive near the top of this division while winning a couple of Grade 2s and placing at the Breeders’ cup last November; will need to keep the speedy
3 CHATEAU in range in this spot, but he may simply be the best horse. CHATEAU is dangerous speed cutting back out of the Grade 1 Carter, a race that is hard to get a handle on with the 109 final Beyer not making a lot of sense for that field – and it has not been confirmed so far with several mediocre performances out of the race already; he has been in good form recently but remains hard to trust in races like this.
1 STAN THE MAN was flat in the Toboggan when last seen, though that race was not run to suit him and he never appeared to be in a comfortable position; better than that but needs a trip as he catches another short field.
| RACE 5)|
SINFUL DANCER 15/8 1PT WIN) 5-3-1 OUR FIRST 1PT RECOMENDED PLAY TODAY UK OR US
| RACE 6) BELMONT GROUP 3|
Less than two lengths separated Harvey’s Lil Goil and Civil Union when the two were third and fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last fall.
With the year-end goal for both horses likely a return to the Breeders’ Cup, Harvey’s Lil Goil and Civil Union kick off their 2021 campaigns in Saturday’s Grade 3, $150,000 Beaugay Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Belmont Park.
Harvey’s Lil Goil, a daughter of American Pharoah, put in three terrific races on turf last fall – a neck loss to Micheline in the Dueling Grounds Oaks, a victory over Micheline in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland, and a neck loss when third behind Audarya and Rushing Fall in the Breeders’ Cup.
Mott freshened up Harvey’s Lil Goil over the winter and believes he’s seen a change from 3 to 4.
“She’s filled out a little bit,” Mott said. “She’s always been a very angular filly that doesn’t carry a tremendous amount of extra weight on her. I think she developed some and strengthened some.”
Mott believes that he’s done enough with Harvey’s Lil Goil to have her ready for a successful return with an eye toward the New York Stakes on June 4.
“I think we got plenty of work in her,” Mott said. “She has been breezing well. If she runs well, comes back well, I’d love to go back to the New York.”
Junior Alvarado rides Harvey’s Lil Goil from the rail.
Civil Union, trained by Shug McGaughey, returns to Belmont Park, where she went 3 for 3 last year, winning twice at 1 1/4 miles and once at 1 1/2 miles. Earlier in her career, she was successful at 1 1/16 miles, but this looks like a starting point to get to races like the New York at 1 1/4 miles.
Joel Rosario rides Civil Union from post 5.
Chad Brown has won three consecutive runnings of the Beaugay and four of the last seven. Saturday, he sends out Lemista, a Group 2 winner in Ireland last summer who is making her first start in the United States and first since Sept. 13, and Nay Lady Nay, a multiple graded winner who hasn’t run since finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.
Brown said Lemista “has a nice turn of foot and looks like a quality filly.” Irad Ortiz Jr. rides Lemista from post 2.
Brown felt Nay Lady Nay may not have handled the Keeneland turf course and was out of position early on in the Breeders’ Cup. She was a late-running third in the Flower Bowl, beaten three-quarters of a length by Civil Union.
Javier Castellano rides Nay Lady Nay from post 3.
Platinum Paynter nearly pulled off a 21-1 upset when finishing second behind Regal Glory in the Plenty of Grace Stakes going a mile April 11 at Aqueduct.
Trainer Todd Pletcher believes Thankful worked good enough on turf last weekend to give her a second chance on turf. She finished ninth on grass in May 2020 in her career debut.
TIP>>>#1 HARVEYS LIL GOIL 1PT WIN WIN >>back **FIRING** 47 bullet’s “IN WORK” 102 Beyer–LTO-
Exacta & Trifecta>>
#5 CIVIL UNION
Finished just over a length behind Harvey’s Lil Goil when they met in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year; this mare arguably had the tougher trip, as she was steadied briefly on the far turn before commencing her rally; yet she also saved ground early and appeared to just run out of real estate late; she has done her best work going farther, winning graded stakes at 10F and 11F last year; so the cutback to 8.5F could work against her more than the other major contenders in this field; that said, she was in career form when last seen and has one of the nation’s top turf riders on her back
#2 LEMISTA She’s the new face in the line-up as she makes her stateside debut; reeled off 4 consecutive victories in Ireland between the fall of her 2YO season and the summer of her 3YO year; while she earned a G2 victory in the Kilboy Estate two back, that wasn’t the toughest field for that level; was perhaps exposed last time when matched against tougher company, as she never got involved; though that race was dominated on the front end; Chad Brown is 7-for-17 (41%, $4.27 ROI) with 4YO and up foreign shippers in graded stakes turf routes over 5 years; has been working in company with Virginia Joy, who made a winning U.S. debut with a 92 Beyer recently;
TIPS >>> 1-5-2
|RACE 7) #5 HONOR WAY WIN 1PT – 5-1-6|
| RACE 8) #4 NOW YUS CAN LEAVE ME>>>> works 47 Bullets|
B.f.3(Feb) OBSAPR20 $285,000
Sire:Tonalist (Tapit) $12,500
Dam:Jerry Love (Not For Love)
– Ditto #6 COLOM D’ORO–
B.f.4(Apr) KEESEP18 $510,000
Sire: Medaglia d’Oro (El Prado*Ire) $150,000
Dam:More Complexity (Square Eddie)
Br :Reddam Racing LLC(Ky)
| RACE 9) GROUP 3 PETER PAN STAKES |
In Promise Keeper, Pletcher sends out a horse who will likely be forwardly placed in the field of six, which could reduce to five if trainer Chad Brown opts to run potential Peter Pan favorite Risk Taking in the Preakness on May 15.
Promise Keeper, a son of Constitution, is coming off a visually-impressive 5 1/2-length victory in a first-level allowance at Keeneland going 1 1/8 miles around two turns. That enabled him to rebound from a dismal last-place showing in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 6.
“He’s a horse that probably wants to be involved,” said Pletcher, adding that in Tampa, Promise Keeper “didn’t get away great, never really got into the flow of the race, probably didn’t love the surface at Tampa, I guess.
“He trained well after that, I thought the allowance race at Keeneland was impressive.”
The last time Promise Keeper ran in a one-turn race, he was a front-running five-length winner of a one-mile maiden race in the slop at Gulfstream Park.
“I don’t think he needs two turns. I do think he’ll appreciate the mile and an eighth,” Pletcher said. “I could see him being on the pace.”
Luis Saez rides Promise Keeper from post 3.
Overtook won a one-mile maiden race at Aqueduct on Dec. 20, then finished second behind Risk Taking in the Grade 3 Withers, also at Aqueduct, on Feb. 6. Pletcher took Overtook to Florida to train and was planning to send him back for the Wood Memorial. Pletcher didn’t like the way Overtook was training so he backed off the son of Curlin for the month of March.
“His works were not what we were looking for. That’s when we decided the Wood was going to happen too soon and kind of regrouped and backed off a little bit and started targeting the Peter Pan,” Pletcher said. “It looks like it made a difference. He’s training much better now.”
Pletcher said he views Overtook as “a grinder who would benefit from some pace.”
John Velazquez rides Overtook from the rail.
Risk Taking won a maiden race and then the Withers when stretched out around two turns at 1 1/8 miles. He finished a lackluster seventh as the favorite in the Wood Memorial, taking him out of consideration for the Kentucky Derby.
When evaluating Risk Taking’s best chance to be a factor in a Triple Crown race, trainer Chad Brown initially thought the Belmont Stakes would be the right race. He is having some second thoughts and is now considering the Preakness. Brown wants to get more of a line on the Preakness field before deciding where to run Risk Taking, who drew the outside in the Peter Pan.
Irad Ortiz Jr. is named to ride Risk Taking.
Nova Rags was second in the Sam F. Davis and then fourth in the Florida Derby. Trainer Bill Mott said he’s not sure whether it was the distance or the competition that compromised Nova Rags in the Florida Derby.
“I guess we just got to try him at this trip one more time and see how the outcome is,” Mott said. “If it works, if the mile and an eighth is okay for him, it’ll keep a few more options open for him later on.”
Mott said he is not necessarily using this as a stepping-stone to the Belmont.
Wolfie’s Dynaghost has not run since winning a seven-furlong maiden race at Aqueduct in November at odds of 33-1. He, too, could be a pace factor breaking from post 4 under Jose Ortiz.
I Am the Law, a maiden after a third and a second in two starts going a one-turn mile, completes the field.
TIP>>>>> #3 PROMISE KEEPER 5/2 2PTS WIN
| RACE 10)|
GROUP 1>>The Man o’ War tops a solid 11-race program that includes four Grade 3 stakes – the Peter Pan for 3-year-olds, the Beaugay for female turf runners, the Runhappy for sprinters, and the Vagrancy for female sprinters. First post is 1 p.m.
Gufo, a 4-year-old son of Declaration of War trained by Christophe Clement, has won five races from eight career starts. After losing his debut by 1 1/2 lengths, his two other defeats have come by a head in the Saratoga Derby last summer and a neck in last November’s Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar.
“He finished as strong as anybody else, if not stronger,” Clement said of Gufo in the Hollywood Derby. “He was in front a stride after the wire, just no racing luck.”
Following that race, Gufo was given a brief freshening at Payson Park in Florida. Clement opted to bring Gufo back in the Man o’ War at 1 3/8 miles rather than last Saturday’s Fort Marcy at 1 1/16 miles.
“It was a very fastly run race,” Clement said of the Fort Marcy. “Sometimes, going a mile and three-eighths gives you a chance to settle the first part and finish. It might be an easier race on a horse coming back than a fastly run, shorter race.”
Gufo has a series of five-furlong works on the turf at Payson and, most recently, at Belmont to prepare him for his return.
“His last two or three works were more aggressive than usual for us, and I think he’s pretty fit,” Clement said.
Gufo is the 124-pound highweight, conceding 4 to 6 pounds to the remainder of the field.
Joel Rosario rides Gufo from post 8.
Ziyad, a 6-year-old Great Britain-bred gelding by Rock of Gibraltar, was a Group 2 winner in France before coming to the U.S. last fall. Ziyad finished third, beaten two lengths in the Grade 3 Sycamore at Keeneland before finishing third again, beaten just a half-length, in the Grade 3 Red Smith at Aqueduct. In the Red Smith, Ziyad inherited the lead in midstretch only to get passed late by North Dakota and Red Knight.
This past winter, trainer Graham Motion kept Ziyad at the Fair Hill training center in Maryland, where he had a solid string of stamina-building works over that facility’s all-weather training track.
“I hope I have enough miles in him – I think I have,” Motion said. “He runs well fresh and I didn’t want to waste a race.”
Manny Franco rides Ziyad from post 3.
Sovereign, the Group 1 Irish Derby winner in 2019 when trained by Aidan O’Brien, makes his U.S. debut and first start for trainer Chad Brown in the Man o’ War. Sovereign, a son of Galileo, was a forwardly placed runner in Ireland, and shows solid works over the turf at Payson Park before coming to Belmont, where he worked five furlongs in 1:02.40 on the turf Sunday.
Irad Ortiz Jr. rides Sovereign from the rail.
Field Pass, a Maryland-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid trained by Mike Maker, has won over four different turf courses and two different synthetic surfaces. He has won from a mile to a 1 1/8 miles and is attempting 1 3/8 miles for the first time in the Man o’ War.
Distance won’t be an issue for Channel Cat, who won the Grade 2 Bowling Green going 1 3/8 miles at Saratoga in 2019 and previously won stakes at 1 1/2 miles and 1 7/16 miles. He came off a three-month layoff to finish second to Say the Word in the Grade 2 Elkhorn on April 17 at Keeneland.
John Velazquez rides Channel Cat for Calumet Farm and trainer Jack Sisterson from post 5.
Moon Over Miami, trained by Bill Mott, has a second and a third in a pair of marathon turf stakes at Gulfstream this past winter. Shamrocket has three seconds in as many starts this year, all against lesser company. He is trained by Todd Pletcher. So High looks overmatched in this spot.
TIP>>>> MOON OVER MIAMI 12/1 1PT WIN- Exacta CHANNEL CAT- trifecta box BOTH ZIYAD GUFO. >>>2-5-3/8
|RACE 11) #9 THIRD DRAFT 5/1 1PT WIN|
|EARY PIC 3) RACE 1 THRU 3)>> 2,5/10,1/ 11,10/ 8 BETS @$1 =$8 |
— LATE PIC 4>RACE 7 THRU 10), 5.1/4,6,7,5/3,2/2,5,3,8 48 BETS @50C =$24
|BELMONT PIC 6 RACE 6 THRU 11 |
The Play: R6) ALL / R7) 3, 5, 7 /R8 ) 6 / R9 ) 2, 3, 4 / R10) 1 / R11)1, 2, 9= COST $162
The Play: ALL / 3, 5, 7 / 6 / 2, 3, 4 / 1 / 1, 2, 9
There is a pick-six carryover of $41,572 into the Saturday card.
SANTA ANITA MAY 8
|******SATURDAY-MAY 08-SANTA ANITA -ARCADIA -********|
|RACE 1 ) #3 DANCING DIANA- WIN SINGLE— #1 DELTA GAMA CATS transfers from another track and trainer who is high % along with jockey, poor last day and similar recent work isn’t that Hot has shown better class than these however previous , recent work is off-putting but watch for late money maybe the work is deliberate, #4 big mamma sue looks to big? even though she has let us down twice with Poor runs.|
| RACE 2 ) |
#4 MAMMA RAMMA only 47 Beyer, yet is topping the figs,
4-2 exacta 4-2-6 trifecta $2
|RACE 3 ) #4 THE REAL NEWS #5THE BLACK ALBUM maybe follow the stronger of these at Post time is my advice|
| RACE 4 ) #5 MIS FIA will probably make the speed from 5 box, she will have to cut across, cuts back from the mile will be hard to catch- I can see this race playing into Improver #2 Curvettes hands Late in the stretch out and it will be interesting to see if she can catch MISS FIA? 2-5- 5-2 ???? WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THERE SOETHING ELSE? #1 PAID INFORMANT could be a fly in my ointment? 2nd best figs 185 winners from 1– #4 RATHER NOSEY won for us last time|
tip>> #5 MISS FIA
|RACE 5 ) #5 HOLLYWOOD GIRL 14/1 1PT WIN I see profit in a win play only, gets a 5lb allowance puts her top fig on 80 recent work are on equal par to this bunch, drawn to get em late maybe the play? this is a gamble however but the price is to big to resist 5-2-1|
|RACE 6 ) #6 SWEET SONNY 6-4-7-2|
| RACE 7 ) SANTA BARBARA GROUP 3|
# 7 GO BLUE NATION FITS This— its a case of who which? gets this distance? T, #6 NEIGE BLANCE looks a stayer with a real smart stretch rally on times- #3 TAPWATER possibly a lay at this far, to short crazy price over bet #2 RIDER FORTHECAUSE , the first McCarthy entrant, makes the second start of her form-cycle after failing to make a dent in the one-mile Royal Heroine (G2) last time at 25/1. Last year, she did some decent work at Woodbine, so there is some back-class for her to build on. I’m not sure how she’ll
handle this trip, but she is in good hands with a trainer who can put some stamina into horses.
TIP 7/2 3PTS NAP Selection #7 GO BLU NATION 7=6-2 TRIFECTA
|RACE 8 ) #6 ITS FITTING- 6-4-2|
|RACE 9 ) #10-9-6-5 SUPERFECTA STRAIGHT 10-9-5-6 SUPERFECTA STRAIGHT|
|RACE 10 )|
|EARLY PIC 4 – RACE 2 THRU 5- >> 4,/ 4,5,/1,2,5/3,5|
|GOLDEN HOUR PIC 4|
| LEG 1) (SA=R-8)-( 2.6 )=(LEG 2) (GG=R8)-( 3-4-5-7-) |
LEG 3) (SA-R-9)-(9-10 )-(LEG 4) (GG=R9) -(6 -7-8) = 42 BETS @$1= $ 42
|**********STATESIDE SUNDAY MAY 09- HORSEPLAYERS POOLS|
|GULFSTREAM) PIC 4|
|CHURCHIL) PIC 3 PIC PIC 5|
|LONE STAR ) PIC 3 PIC 4|
SUNDAY-MAY-2ND, POST 1PM PACIFIC, 9PM BST-10PM PRETORIA
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FONNER PARK SATURDAY MAY 1 NEBRASKA STEVE IS BACK
HI I AM NEBRASKA STEVE AND HERE ARE MY FONNER PICKS FOR SATURDAY, MAY 1ST
PICK 5 JACKPOT (RACE 6 THRU 10):
(2-5-7) (5-7) (1-2-9) (2) (4-6-9-10)
BEST BET: RACE 9….#2 FIRST ALTERNATE
LONGSHOT: RACE 8….#1 GOOSE
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